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AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AltaGas Ltd $19.26, price $37.50, upside -48.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US · ISIN CA0213611001

AL AltaGas Ltd logo Broad data Oct 3, 2026

AltaGas Ltd

ATGFF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $19.26 · Strongly overvalued (−48.6%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +17.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!3.4% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 36/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$40.62 $13.97 Fair Value $19.26 Apr 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.97 – $40.62 · fair‑value band $11.76 – $25.84 · the $37.50 price screens above the $19.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

AltaGas Ltd. operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through the Utilities and Midstream segments. The Utilities segment owns and operates franchised, cost-of-service, and rate-regulated natural gas distribution and storage utilities for residential and commercial customers.

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AltaGas Ltd. operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through the Utilities and Midstream segments. The Utilities segment owns and operates franchised, cost-of-service, and rate-regulated natural gas distribution and storage utilities for residential and commercial customers. This segment also offers storage facilities and contracts for interstate natural gas transportation and storage services, as well as natural gas and electricity directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. The Midstream segment is involved in the operation of two liquified petroleum gas export terminals; natural gas gathering, processing, and extraction; and fractionation and liquids handling; and natural gas and natural gas liquids marketing business, domestic logistics, trucking and rail terminals, and liquid and natural gas storage capability. In addition, the company operates gas-fired power generation and distribution assets with a generating capacity of 508 megawatts of power in California. AltaGas Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Stock analysis

AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF) currently trades at $37.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.26, 48.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $32.24 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the $37.50 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.55, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $11.76 (bear) to $25.84 (bull), the price of $37.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

AltaGas Ltd reported revenue of C$12.5B in FY2025 versus C$10.6B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$767M in FY2025, compounding +28.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $11.3B · P/E ratio 32.1 · P/S ratio 1.96 · EPS (TTM) $1.17 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −49%, ATGFF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.76 Fair Value $19.26 Bull $25.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $17.07 $18.53 $21.52 76
EPV n/a $2.55 $5.43 68
ROIC Compounder n/a $2.55 $5.43 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $11.76 $59.17 $81.69 64
Lynch FV $16.04 $22.91 $29.78 61
PEG = 1.0 $16.04 $22.91 $29.78 57
EPV n/a $2.55 $5.43 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.23 $17.11 $27.14 66
DDM Multi-Stage $8.23 $14.42 $17.95 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.34 $31.12 $38.90 63
P/S Multiple $22.05 $29.39 $36.74 58
P/B Multiple $22.05 $29.39 $36.74 55
EV/EBIT $9.17 $19.04 $28.91 62
EV/EBITDA $8.12 $17.63 $27.15 63
EV/Revenue $3.51 $13.78 $24.04 49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.04 $13.45 $20.07 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.07 $18.53 $21.52 76
ROIC Compounder n/a $2.55 $5.43 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $22.57 $32.24 $41.92 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.2% vs 9.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

ATGFF screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with Enbridge Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5.5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.03× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.34× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.94× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.6× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Enbridge Inc ENB $46.97 $36.91 −21%
The Williams Companies, Inc WMB $68.98 $11.72 −83%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $36.65 $24.66 −33%
Energy Transfer LP, ET $20.10 $15.29 −24%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $30.63 $28.16 −8%
TC Energy Corporation TRP $58.78 $24.51 −58%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $277.84 $65.24 −77%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $57.66 $70.77 +23%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $88.62 $80.15 −10%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $267.29 $294.02 +10%

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AltaGas Ltd · Fair Value
$19.26 −49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AltaGas Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATGFF

Frequently asked questions

Is AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.26 versus a price of $37.50, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATGFF?
Our model-based fair value for AltaGas Ltd is $19.26 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.50.
What is the quality score of ATGFF?
AltaGas Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.26 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.76, optimistic scenario $25.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AltaGas Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.26, about −49% upside versus a price of $37.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.76, optimistic scenario $25.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
AltaGas Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$12.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does AltaGas Ltd pay a dividend?
AltaGas Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.41% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AltaGas Ltd it is $19.26 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $37.50. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AltaGas Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ATGFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.50, fair value $19.26, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATGFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.26). For AltaGas Ltd the two are $18.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AltaGas Ltd worth?
The market values AltaGas Ltd at about $11.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $37.50; our models calculate a fair value of $19.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATGFF?
Our models span a range for AltaGas Ltd: cautious scenario $11.76, base $19.26, optimistic $25.84 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $37.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATGFF?
AltaGas Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AltaGas Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATGFF from its 52-week high?
AltaGas Ltd trades at $37.50, about 8% below its 52-week high of $40.62 and 34% above the low of $27.93 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AltaGas Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AltaGas Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $37.50, calculated fair value $19.26 (−49%), Quality Score 41/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATGFF calculated?
We run AltaGas Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AltaGas Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $37.50. Our model-based fair value is $19.26, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AltaGas Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($11.76 to $25.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF) come from?
Earnings per share at AltaGas Ltd grew +10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.6 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AltaGas Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The market capitalisation of AltaGas Ltd is $11.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AltaGas Ltd is 1.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
Earnings per share at AltaGas Ltd are $1.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The dividend yield of AltaGas Ltd is 3.4% (payout 109%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The net margin of AltaGas Ltd is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AltaGas Ltd is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AltaGas Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
The operating margin of AltaGas Ltd is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF)?
Earnings per share at AltaGas Ltd are growing −64.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF) generate?
The free cash flow of AltaGas Ltd is −C$344M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AltaGas Ltd (ATGFF) carry?
The net debt of AltaGas Ltd is C$10.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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