ATN Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · PH · Market cap 2.5B PHP
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 31 days ago
Below-average quality, screening 47% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (0.6100 PHP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (0.6100 PHP to 1.23 PHP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.3450 PHP – 1.07 PHP · fair‑value band 0.6100 PHP – 1.23 PHP · the 0.4150 PHP price screens below the 0.6100 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
ATN (ATN) currently trades at 0.4150 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6100 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 47.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Our scenario range runs from 0.6100 PHP (bear case) to 1.23 PHP (bull case); at 0.4150 PHP, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 62% fair-value upside, at 47%, ATN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (0.2800 PHP) versus Multiples (0.0200 PHP). Highest evidence: Residual Income (61).
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Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
ATN reported revenue of 40.3M PHP in FY2024 versus 18.6M PHP in FY2020, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5M PHP in FY2024.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Operations · 38 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMPH SMPH | 18.24 PHP | 17.53 PHP | -4% |
| ALI ALI | 16.00 PHP | 19.27 PHP | +20% |
| RLC RLC | 16.34 PHP | 40.85 PHP | +150% |
| DDPR DDPR | 93.00 PHP | 112.27 PHP | +21% |
| ALLHC ALLHC | 1.16 PHP | 0.7200 PHP | -38% |
| DMW DMW | 5.00 PHP | 5.83 PHP | +17% |
| FLI FLI | 0.7000 PHP | 1.75 PHP | +150% |
| SLI SLI | 2.08 PHP | 5.20 PHP | +150% |
| PT Rimo International Lestari Tbk RIMO | 50.00 IDR | 80.85 IDR | +62% |
| BEL BEL | 1.21 PHP | 3.03 PHP | +150% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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