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Data-driven stock valuation

Avista Corporation (AVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avista Corporation stock $31.29, price $40.23, that is 22.2% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US

AC Avista Corporation logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

Avista Corporation

AVA · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 22% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin (TTM)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Profit last quarter +148% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.2 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
4.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 45/100
Insiders sold $174,105 (6M)
Fair value $31.29 · Overvalued
Quality 38/100
Negative free cash flow
Watch Avista Corporation for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$41.89 $26.71 Fair Value $31.29 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $26.71 – $41.89 · fair‑value band $23.64 – $43.90 · the $40.23 price screens above the $31.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States.

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It operates through two segments, Avista Utilities and Alaska Electric Light and Power Company (AEL&P). The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution and transmission services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana.

This segment also engages in the supply of electricity to customers in Montana; and wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The Alaska Electric Light and Power Company segment offers electric services in Juneau, Alaska.

The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, wind, and solar generation facilities.

As of December 31, 2025, it supplied retail electrical services to approximately 429,000 customers; retail natural gas services to approximately 386,000 customers; and electrical energy to approximately 17,600 customers.

The company also operates five hydroelectric generation facilities with a capacity of 102.7 MW; and four diesel generating facilities with a capacity of 107.5 MW. In addition, it engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments.

The company was formerly known as Washington Water Power and changed its name to Avista Corporation in January 1999. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

Stock analysis

Avista Corporation (AVA) currently trades at $40.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.29, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.93 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $40.23 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.40, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $23.64 (bear) to $43.90 (bull), the price of $40.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Avista Corporation reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was $193M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.3B Mid · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) $2.92 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −22%, AVA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.64 Fair Value $31.29 Bull $43.90
Price $40.23 · Downside -22.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8181 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $26.98 $28.75 $31.63 76
EPV $4.71 $11.40 $17.35 69
ROIC Compounder $4.71 $11.40 $17.35 68
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $15.67 $35.92 $46.06 65
PEG = 1.0 $6.00 $8.57 $11.14 57
EPV $4.71 $11.40 $17.35 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $18.24 $31.29 $47.64 67
DDM Multi-Stage $18.24 $27.27 $37.77 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $31.11 $41.48 $51.85 63
P/S Multiple $29.38 $39.17 $48.97 58
P/B Multiple $33.60 $44.80 $56.00 55
EV/EBIT $7.47 $23.32 $39.17 60
EV/EBITDA $17.50 $36.69 $55.88 64
EV/Revenue n/a $14.87 $31.35 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.75 $21.11 $31.51 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $26.98 $28.75 $31.63 76
ROIC Compounder $4.71 $11.40 $17.35 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $23.64 $33.77 $43.90 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 26
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 46
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 19
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 50
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 95
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 41
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 59
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 55
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $174,105 and none bought.

  • SaleJoshua D DiLucianoVice President4,675 shares at $37.24$174,105Sep 2, 2026
  • SaleWayne O ManuelSenior Vice President2× since Dec 16, 2025: 3,378 shares, avg. $39.80$134,432May 7, 2026
  • SaleAlexis G. AlexanderVice President2× since Dec 2, 2025: 682 shares, avg. $40.00$27,279Mar 13, 2026
  • SaleBryan Alden CoxSenior Vice President1,768 shares at $40.18$71,038Feb 26, 2026
  • SaleJanet D. WidmannDirector7,400 shares at $38.63$285,862Dec 12, 2025

Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.5% vs 1.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

AVA screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Rate regulation delivers predictable returns via annual cost true-ups, yet the lack of any earnings benefit from infrastructure spending together with negative free cash flow and high debt restricts durability.
Main risk: Rate regulation that merely trues up revenues to costs without earnings upside could constrain returns on continued infrastructure spending across multiple states.
Avista operates under rate regulation where annual adjustments simply true up revenues to match actual costs with no direct earnings benefit. This delivers predictable returns but limits upside even as infrastructure spending continues across its multi-state territory. Does the built-in cost recovery provide enough stability to justify current valuations or will it constrain growth relative to peers?
Join the discussion →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −22.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.3% · Below median
Return on assets 2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 11.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 13.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 13.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.23× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.74× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.27× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)4 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)3 · sector 43
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)48 · sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)98 · sector 82

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Engie SA ENGI €24.20 €20.64 −15% vs AVA
RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and RWE €57.64 €43.47 −25% vs AVA
Enel SpA ENEL €9.69 €5.94 −39% vs AVA
Sempra SRE $78.17 $43.32 −45% vs AVA
EDP, S.A EDP €5.00 €2.67 −47% vs AVA
E.ON SE EOAN €19.09 €8.96 −53% vs AVA
Iberdrola, S.A IBE €22.65 €10.28 −55% vs AVA
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIP $39.45 $17.67 −55% vs AVA
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK €66.80 €21.11 −68% vs AVA
ACWA Power Company 2082 157.00 SAR 27.47 SAR −83% vs AVA

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avista Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVA

Frequently asked questions

Is Avista Corporation (AVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.29 versus a price of $40.23, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVA?
Our model-based fair value for Avista Corporation is $31.29 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.23.
What is the quality score of AVA?
Avista Corporation has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.29 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.64, optimistic scenario $43.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avista Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.29, about 22% lower versus a price of $40.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.64, optimistic scenario $43.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Avista Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Avista Corporation pay a dividend?
Avista Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Avista Corporation (AVA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Avista Corporation pays a dividend of $1.97 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 67.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avista Corporation it is $31.29 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $40.23. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Avista Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, AVA trades above its calculated fair value: price $40.23, fair value $31.29, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.29). For Avista Corporation the two are $8.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avista Corporation worth?
The market values Avista Corporation at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $40.23; our models calculate a fair value of $31.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVA?
Our models span a range for Avista Corporation: cautious scenario $23.64, base $31.29, optimistic $43.90 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $40.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVA?
Avista Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.29 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2019, FY2025 ex one-offs: 19.4. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of AVA?
The PEG ratio of Avista Corporation is 2.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avista Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVA from its 52-week high?
Avista Corporation trades at $40.23, about 4% below its 52-week high of $41.89 and 16% above the low of $34.79 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avista Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, E.ON SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avista Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $40.23, calculated fair value $31.29 (−22%), Quality Score 38/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVA calculated?
We run Avista Corporation through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $31.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Avista Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $40.23. Our model-based fair value is $31.29, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avista Corporation right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($23.64 to $43.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Avista Corporation (AVA) come from?
Earnings per share at Avista Corporation grew −0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate +4.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Avista Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The market capitalisation of Avista Corporation is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avista Corporation is 1.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Earnings per share at Avista Corporation are $2.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The dividend yield of Avista Corporation is 4.9% (payout 67.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The net margin of Avista Corporation is 11.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avista Corporation is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avista Corporation is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avista Corporation (AVA)?
The operating margin of Avista Corporation is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Revenue at Avista Corporation is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avista Corporation (AVA)?
Earnings per share at Avista Corporation are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Avista Corporation (AVA) generate?
The free cash flow of Avista Corporation is −$101M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Avista Corporation (AVA) carry?
The net debt of Avista Corporation is $3.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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