Avista Corporation (AVA) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $3.5B
Avista Corporation
AVA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($27.51 to $49.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $27.51 (bear) to $49.63 (bull), base $34.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 37/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.06 – $42.43 · fair‑value band $27.51 – $49.63 · the $38.73 price screens above the $34.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Avista Corporation (AVA) currently trades at $38.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.22, implying the stock looks roughly 11.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Avista Corporation generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.51 (bear case) to $49.63 (bull case); at $38.73, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -12%, AVA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($39.70) versus Economic Profit ($6.86). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Avista Utilities and Alaska Electric Light and Power Company (AEL&P).
Full company description
Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Avista Utilities and Alaska Electric Light and Power Company (AEL&P). The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution and transmission services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. This segment also engages in the supply of electricity to customers in Montana; and wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The Alaska Electric Light and Power Company segment offers electric services in Juneau, Alaska. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, wind, and solar generation facilities. As of December 31, 2025, it supplied retail electrical services to approximately 429,000 customers; retail natural gas services to approximately 386,000 customers; and electrical energy to approximately 17,600 customers. The company also operates five hydroelectric generation facilities with a capacity of 102.7 MW; and four diesel generating facilities with a capacity of 107.5 MW. In addition, it engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments. The company was formerly known as Washington Water Power and changed its name to Avista Corporation in January 1999. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avista Corporation reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was $193M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.
AVA screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Avista declares $0.4925 dividend
- Avista Corp. Board Declares Common Stock Dividend
- Avista Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Is Avista (AVA) Cheap Following Its Second Quarter 2026 Earnings?
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €21.25 | €9.34 | -56% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €10.28 | €5.83 | -43% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €26.59 | €17.39 | -35% |
| Sempra SRE | $93.15 | $47.77 | -49% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €19.34 | €11.71 | -39% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.52 | €29.64 | -48% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 198.20 SAR | 25.38 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$55.05 | C$17.66 | -68% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €69.00 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.41 | €3.81 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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