Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arrow Exploration Corp C$0.29, price C$0.69, upside -58.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.1000 – C$0.7000 · fair‑value band C$0.2000 – C$0.3800 · the C$0.6900 price screens above the C$0.2900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Arrow Exploration Corp. operates a junior oil and gas company that engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia and Western Canada. The company is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL) currently trades at C$0.6900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.2900, implying the stock looks roughly 137.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$0.2100 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the C$0.6900 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$0.0900, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.2000 (bear) to C$0.3800 (bull), the price of C$0.6900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Arrow Exploration Corp reported revenue of $79.4M in FY2025 versus $7.2M in FY2021, a compound +82.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4M in FY2025, compounding −29.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$197M (≈ $140M) · P/E ratio 69.0 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0100 · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.2% · Operating margin 29.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 245% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −58%, AXL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.2000Fair Value C$0.2900Bull C$0.3800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+70.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +55.2% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−38.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−38.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−139% → 17%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 22.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−58% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)29% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)69.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.88× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA3.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)28· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.2900 versus a price of C$0.6900, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AXL?
Our model-based fair value for Arrow Exploration Corp is C$0.2900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.6900.
What is the quality score of AXL?
Arrow Exploration Corp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.2900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.2000, optimistic scenario C$0.3800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrow Exploration Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.2900, about −58% upside versus a price of C$0.6900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.2000, optimistic scenario C$0.3800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Arrow Exploration Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $74.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrow Exploration Corp it is C$0.2900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$0.6900. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrow Exploration Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AXL trades above its calculated fair value: price C$0.6900, fair value C$0.2900, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.6900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.2900). For Arrow Exploration Corp the two are C$0.4000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrow Exploration Corp worth?
The market values Arrow Exploration Corp at about C$197M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$0.6900; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.2900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXL?
Our models span a range for Arrow Exploration Corp: cautious scenario C$0.2000, base C$0.2900, optimistic C$0.3800 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$0.6900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AXL?
Arrow Exploration Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$0.2900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrow Exploration Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AXL from its 52-week high?
Arrow Exploration Corp trades at C$0.6900, about 1% below its 52-week high of C$0.7000 and 245% above the low of C$0.2000 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.2900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrow Exploration Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrow Exploration Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$0.6900, calculated fair value C$0.2900 (−58%), Quality Score 44/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXL calculated?
We run Arrow Exploration Corp through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.2900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arrow Exploration Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$0.6900. Our model-based fair value is C$0.2900, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrow Exploration Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.3800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$0.2000 to C$0.3800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Arrow Exploration Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
The market capitalisation of Arrow Exploration Corp is C$197M (≈ $140M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arrow Exploration Corp is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Earnings per share at Arrow Exploration Corp are C$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 69.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
The net margin of Arrow Exploration Corp is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrow Exploration Corp is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrow Exploration Corp is 16.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
The operating margin of Arrow Exploration Corp is 29.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Revenue at Arrow Exploration Corp is growing +20.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL)?
Earnings per share at Arrow Exploration Corp are growing +96.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL) generate?
The free cash flow of Arrow Exploration Corp is −$16.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arrow Exploration Corp (AXL) hold?
Arrow Exploration Corp holds more cash than debt, $11.1M net (fiscal year 2022). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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