American Express Company (AXPB34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of American Express Company BRL 107, price BRL 158, upside -32.2%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$67.49 – R$212.47 · fair‑value band R$55.99 – R$156.92 · the R$157.96 price screens above the R$107.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S.
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American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. The company offers credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, and lifestyle and expense management products and services; and banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending. It also provides merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, as well as network services. The company offers its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers and business partners, in-house sales teams, direct mail, telephone, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
American Express Company (AXPB34) currently trades at R$157.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$107.05, 32.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$140.73 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$157.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$17.17, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$55.99 (bear) to R$156.92 (bull), the price of R$157.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
American Express Company reported revenue of $77.7B in FY2025 versus $42.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $10.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$1.3T (≈ $240B) · P/E ratio 19.0 · P/S ratio 2.65 · EPS (TTM) R$8.30 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 34.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −32%, AXPB34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$55.99Fair Value R$107.05Bull R$156.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$3.70 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 18%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Express Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AXPB34
Frequently asked questions
Is American Express Company (AXPB34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$107.05 versus a price of R$157.96, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AXPB34?
Our model-based fair value for American Express Company is R$107.05 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$157.96.
What is the quality score of AXPB34?
American Express Company has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Express Company (AXPB34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$107.05 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$55.99, optimistic scenario R$156.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Express Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$107.05, about −32% upside versus a price of R$157.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$55.99, optimistic scenario R$156.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
American Express Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $68.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does American Express Company pay a dividend?
American Express Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Express Company it is R$107.05 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$157.96. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Express Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, AXPB34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$157.96, fair value R$107.05, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXPB34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$157.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$107.05). For American Express Company the two are R$50.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Express Company worth?
The market values American Express Company at about R$1.3T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$157.96; our models calculate a fair value of R$107.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXPB34?
Our models span a range for American Express Company: cautious scenario R$55.99, base R$107.05, optimistic R$156.92 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$157.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AXPB34 from its 52-week high?
American Express Company trades at R$157.96, about 26% below its 52-week high of R$212.47 and 4% above the low of R$152.09 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$107.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Express Company?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, Capital One Financial Corporation, Bajaj Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Express Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$157.96, calculated fair value R$107.05 (−32%), Quality Score 67/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXPB34 calculated?
We run American Express Company through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$107.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. American Express Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$157.96. Our model-based fair value is R$107.05, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Express Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R$55.99 to R$156.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of American Express Company
How large is the market capitalisation of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The market capitalisation of American Express Company is R$1.3T (≈ $240B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of American Express Company is 19.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Express Company is 2.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
Earnings per share at American Express Company are R$8.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The dividend yield of American Express Company is 2.2% (payout 41.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The net margin of American Express Company is 14.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Express Company is 34.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Express Company is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Express Company (AXPB34)?
The operating margin of American Express Company is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Express Company (AXPB34)?
Revenue at American Express Company is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Express Company (AXPB34)?
Earnings per share at American Express Company are growing +17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Express Company (AXPB34) generate?
The free cash flow of American Express Company is $16.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Express Company (AXPB34) carry?
The net debt of American Express Company is $10.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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