Ayala Corp (AYALY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ayala Corp $15.04, price $8.01, upside +87.8%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.25 – $17.77 · fair‑value band $12.33 – $35.52 · the $8.01 price screens below the $15.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ayala Corporation engages in the real estate and hotel businesses in the Philippines, Europe, Asia, and the United States.
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Ayala Corporation engages in the real estate and hotel businesses in the Philippines, Europe, Asia, and the United States. The company develops, constructs, leases, and sells residential and commercial lots, as well as develops and sells leisure properties; manages land bank; operates hotels, cinema, and theaters; and offers construction and property management services. It also provides saving and time deposits, corporate, consumer, mortgage, leasing, and agri business loans; deposit and cash management, asset management, securities brokerage, foreign exchange and capital markets investment, corporate finance and consulting, investment banking, internet banking, foreign exchange, and safety deposit services; and life, non-life, pre-need, and reinsurance services. In addition, the company offers digital wireless communication, long distance communication, broadband internet, wireline voice and data communication, and local exchange carrier services; and designs, develops, operates, administers, and manages software applications and systems. Further, the company provides electronics manufacturing, and power semiconductor assembly and testing services; and generates power using renewable and conventional technologies. Additionally, it manufactures, distributes, sells, repairs, and services passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles; and provides water delivery, sewerage, sanitation, and distribution services, as well as pipe works, used water management, and management services, as well as offers venture capital for technologies and businesses; and onshore and offshore outsourcing, air-chartered, consultancy, healthcare, infrastructure, logistics, and education services. Ayala Corporation was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Makati City, the Philippines.
Stock analysis
Ayala Corp ADR (AYALY) currently trades at $8.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.04, implying the stock looks roughly 46.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.90 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the $8.01 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.40, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.33 (bear) to $35.52 (bull), the price of $8.01 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ayala Corp ADR reported revenue of 337B PHP in FY2025 versus 232B PHP in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was 61.4B PHP in FY2025, compounding +12.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.7B · P/E ratio 4.3 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) $1.52 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 18.2% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 88%, AYALY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.33Fair Value $15.04Bull $35.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.3% vs 10.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 18%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (13 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 358 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+41.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.04 versus a price of $8.01, about +88% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AYALY?
Our model-based fair value for Ayala Corp ADR is $15.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.01.
What is the quality score of AYALY?
Ayala Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.33, optimistic scenario $35.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ayala Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.04, about +88% upside versus a price of $8.01 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.33, optimistic scenario $35.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Ayala Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 384B PHP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ayala Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Ayala Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ayala Corp ADR it is $15.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.01. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ayala Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AYALY trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.01, fair value $15.04, a gap of about +88% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AYALY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.04). For Ayala Corp ADR the two are $7.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ayala Corp ADR worth?
The market values Ayala Corp ADR at about $6.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.01; our models calculate a fair value of $15.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AYALY?
Our models span a range for Ayala Corp ADR: cautious scenario $12.33, base $15.04, optimistic $35.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AYALY?
Ayala Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ayala Corp ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 1.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AYALY from its 52-week high?
Ayala Corp ADR trades at $8.01, about 13% below its 52-week high of $9.22 and 28% above the low of $6.25 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ayala Corp ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ayala Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.01, calculated fair value $15.04 (+88%), Quality Score 42/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AYALY calculated?
We run Ayala Corp ADR through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ayala Corp ADR currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.01. Our model-based fair value is $15.04, about +88% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ayala Corp ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($12.33 to $35.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Ayala Corp (AYALY) come from?
Earnings per share at Ayala Corp ADR grew +8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin −5.2 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ayala Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The market capitalisation of Ayala Corp ADR is $6.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ayala Corp ADR is 0.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Earnings per share at Ayala Corp ADR are $1.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The dividend yield of Ayala Corp ADR is 2.4% (payout 12.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The net margin of Ayala Corp ADR is 18.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ayala Corp ADR is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ayala Corp ADR is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
The operating margin of Ayala Corp ADR is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Revenue at Ayala Corp ADR is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ayala Corp (AYALY)?
Earnings per share at Ayala Corp ADR are growing −7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ayala Corp (AYALY) generate?
The free cash flow of Ayala Corp ADR is −18.8B PHP (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ayala Corp (AYALY) carry?
The net debt of Ayala Corp ADR is 669B PHP (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026