Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock SEK 143, price SEK 397, that is 64.0% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 130.78 – kr 408.30 · fair‑value band kr 107.13 – kr 235.98 · the kr 396.60 price screens above the kr 142.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides various savings, pension, and mortgages products in Sweden.
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It offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, savings, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans.
The company also trades in equities, funds, and other securities; and provides external and green mortgages, private banking mortgages, margin loans, and stock lending products.
In addition, it offers decision support services and others; and publishes topical news and independent advice on the financial website, Placera, as well as on the weekly financial magazine, Börsveckan.
The company primarily serves individual and professional investors, and corporate customers, such as entrepreneurs, asset managers, and occupational pension customers. Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) currently trades at kr 396.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 142.84, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of kr 218.55 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the kr 396.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 33.22, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 107.13 (bear) to kr 235.98 (bull), the price of kr 396.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) reported revenue of 5.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.6B SEK in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 62.8B SEK (≈ $6.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 11.4 · EPS (TTM) kr 18.43 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 53.6% · Return on equity 36.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −64%, AZA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 107.13Fair Value kr 142.84Bullkr 235.98
Price kr 396.60 · Downside -64.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.2% vs 20.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.65% → 54%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Strong customer and inflow growth supports the regional bank, yet falling daily trades shift reliance toward net interest income with uncertain margin effects.
Main risk: Named rivals such as Nordnet with its pan-Nordic reach and Montrose with lower commissions and fees might draw customers away from Avanza and compel price cuts that hit brokerage income and other fees.
Bull case: Avanza could leverage its scale, customer loyalty and new AI-driven offerings like Sigma to retain affluent clients and expand into new markets while matching or undercutting rivals on value.
Bear case: If cheaper rivals continue gaining traction, Avanza might lose market share in brokerage and see sustained pressure on fees and net interest margins from a shifting customer mix.
Avanza keeps adding customers and net inflows at a healthy clip, yet brokerage-generating trades per day have fallen year over year. Results now depend more on net interest income and other fees than on trading commissions. Will rising rates and deposit growth more than offset weaker activity, or will the mix pressure margins?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 999 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)53.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)65.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AZA
Frequently asked questions
Is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 142.84 versus a price of kr 396.60, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AZA?
Our model-based fair value for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is kr 142.84 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 396.60.
What is the quality score of AZA?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 142.84 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 107.13, optimistic scenario kr 235.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 142.84, about 64% lower versus a price of kr 396.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 107.13, optimistic scenario kr 235.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 3.21% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) pays a dividend of kr 12.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2004. The payout ratio is 69.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What is the intrinsic value of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) it is kr 142.84 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of kr 396.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, AZA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 396.60, fair value kr 142.84, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AZA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 396.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 142.84). For Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) the two are kr 253.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) worth?
The market values Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) at about 62.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is kr 396.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 142.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AZA?
Our models span a range for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 107.13, base kr 142.84, optimistic kr 235.98 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price kr 396.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AZA?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 142.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 21.2. Other multiples: PEG 6.3, P/B 7.9, P/S 11.4, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AZA?
The PEG ratio of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 6.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 36.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AZA from its 52-week high?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) trades at kr 396.60, about 3% below its 52-week high of kr 408.30 and 28% above the low of kr 310.48 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 142.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ)?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price kr 396.60, calculated fair value kr 142.84 (−64%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AZA calculated?
We run Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 142.84 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was kr 396.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 142.84, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 235.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 107.13 to kr 235.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) come from?
Earnings per share at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) grew +22.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.2 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The market capitalisation of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 62.8B SEK (≈ $6.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 11.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Earnings per share at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) are kr 18.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The dividend yield of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 3.2% (payout 69.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The net margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 53.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 36.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
The operating margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 65.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Revenue at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?
Earnings per share at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) generate?
The free cash flow of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 31.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) hold?
Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 12.3B SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026