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Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) SEK 143, price SEK 379, upside -62.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · SE · ISIN SE0012454072

AB Broad data Sep 27, 2026

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ)

AZA · ST

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value kr 143.14 · Strongly overvalued (−62.3%)

✓Quality 60/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.7 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 53.0% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓3.4% dividend yield · Sustainable

!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)

✓Wide moat 77/100

26 models, one by oneBear kr 107.36 to bull kr 178.93 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 60/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 130.78 – kr 408.30 · fair‑value band kr 107.36 – kr 178.93 · the kr 379.20 price screens above the kr 143.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides various savings, pension, and mortgages products in Sweden. It offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, savings, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans. The company also trades in equities, funds, and other securities; and provides external and green mortgages, private banking mortgages, margin loans, and stock lending products. In addition, it offers decision support services and others; and publishes topical news and independent advice on the financial website, Placera, as well as on the weekly financial magazine, Börsveckan. The company primarily serves individual and professional investors, and corporate customers, such as entrepreneurs, asset managers, and occupational pension customers. Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) currently trades at kr 379.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 143.14, 62.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 152.94 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 379.20 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 33.66, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: kr 107.36 (bear) to kr 178.93 (bull), the price of kr 379.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) reported revenue of 5.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.6B SEK in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 60.0B SEK (≈ $6.0B) · P/E ratio 21.1 · P/S ratio 9.70 · EPS (TTM) kr 17.93 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 45.9% · Return on equity 39.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −62%, AZA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 107.36 Fair Value kr 143.14 Bull kr 178.93

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 3.87 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income kr 100.86 kr 152.94 kr 359.11 69

P/E Multiple kr 162.53 kr 216.71 kr 270.89 63

P/B Multiple kr 52.76 kr 70.34 kr 87.93 55

All 4 models by family

Multiples

P/E Multiple kr 162.53 kr 216.71 kr 270.89 63

P/B Multiple kr 52.76 kr 70.34 kr 87.93 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) kr 25.12 kr 33.66 kr 50.24 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income kr 100.86 kr 152.94 kr 359.11 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 45

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 52

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 100

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 10

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 38

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 83

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 51

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 60

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 78

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+12.9%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+22.5%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+18.7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.6% a year

Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+17.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+17.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.2% vs 20.0%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.65% → 54%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

AZA screens overvalued: fair value 62% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1056 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 57 · Above median

Fair Value upside −62.3% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 39.1% · Top 25%

Return on assets 0.7% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 53.0% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 63.5% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 25.4% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.1× · Priciest 25%

P/B 7.57× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 11.16× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 1.9× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 14.8× · Priciest 25%

PEG 6.32× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47

PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)67 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	78.00 SGD	40.39 SGD	−48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥40.69	¥52.73	+30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€83.95	€77.62	−8%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.79	€4.02	−41%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$11.07	$6.86	−38%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€99.30	€105.99	+7%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹735.60	₹406.44	−45%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	32.01 SGD	19.78 SGD	−38%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK	€13.23	€8.46	−36%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,327	₹615.71	−54%

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Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) · Fair Value
kr 143.14 −62%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AZA" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">kr 143.14</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−62%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AZA

Frequently asked questions

Is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 143.14 versus a price of kr 379.20, about −62% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of AZA?

Our model-based fair value for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is kr 143.14 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 379.20.

What is the quality score of AZA?

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 143.14 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 107.36, optimistic scenario kr 178.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at kr 143.14, about −62% upside versus a price of kr 379.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 107.36, optimistic scenario kr 178.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).

Does Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) pay a dividend?

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) it is kr 143.14 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of kr 379.20. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 27, 2026, AZA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 379.20, fair value kr 143.14, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of AZA?

No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 379.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 143.14). For Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) the two are kr 236.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) worth?

The market values Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) at about 60.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is kr 379.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 143.14 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AZA?

Our models span a range for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 107.36, base kr 143.14, optimistic kr 178.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price kr 379.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of AZA?

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 143.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.3, P/B 7.6, P/S 11.2, EV/EBITDA 14.8.

What is the PEG ratio of AZA?

The PEG ratio of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 6.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Balance-sheet figures for Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 39.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is AZA from its 52-week high?

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) trades at kr 379.20, about 7% below its 52-week high of kr 408.30 and 22% above the low of kr 310.48 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 143.14 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ)?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price kr 379.20, calculated fair value kr 143.14 (−62%), Quality Score 60/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of AZA calculated?

We run Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 143.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was kr 379.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 143.14, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 178.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) come from?

Earnings per share at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) grew +22.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.2 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ)

How large is the market capitalisation of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The market capitalisation of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 60.0B SEK (≈ $6.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 9.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Earnings per share at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) are kr 17.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The dividend yield of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 3.4% (payout 71.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The net margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 45.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 39.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

The operating margin of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 63.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Revenue at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is growing +25.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA)?

Earnings per share at Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) generate?

The free cash flow of Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) is 31.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) hold?

Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 12.3B SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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