Baxter International Inc (BAX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Baxter International Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.68 · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −0.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·1.57% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/14)
!Narrow moat25/100
!Insider activity45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.79 – $81.43 · fair‑value band $2.68 – $4.50 · the $22.93 price screens above the $2.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Baxter International Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a portfolio of healthcare products in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Medical Products & Therapies, Healthcare Systems & Technologies, and Pharmaceuticals.
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Baxter International Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a portfolio of healthcare products in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Medical Products & Therapies, Healthcare Systems & Technologies, and Pharmaceuticals. It offers sterile intravenous (IV) solutions; infusion systems and devices; parenteral nutrition therapies; inhaled anesthetics; generic injectable pharmaceuticals; surgical hemostat and sealant products; advanced surgical equipment; smart bed systems; patient monitoring and diagnostic technologies; and respiratory health devices, as well as advanced equipment for the surgical space comprising operating room integration technologies, precision positioning devices, and other accessories. The company also provides specialty injectable pharmaceuticals, inhaled anesthetics, and drug compounding services. Its products are used in hospitals, nursing homes, rehabilitation centers, ambulatory surgery centers, doctors' offices, kidney dialysis centers, and patients at home under physician supervision. The company sells its products through direct sales force, independent distributors, drug wholesalers, and specialty pharmacy or other alternate site providers. It operates in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Asia, Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Baxter International Inc. was incorporated in 1931 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Baxter International Inc (BAX) currently trades at $22.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.68, implying the stock looks roughly 755.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $8.56 per share, and 0 of the 5 models we run sit above the $22.93 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $0.9200, and 5 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.68 (bear) to $4.50 (bull), the price of $22.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Baxter International Inc reported revenue of $11.2B in FY2025 versus $12.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$957M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $11.8B · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) $−2.01 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin −8.5% · Return on equity −15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −88%, BAX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.68Fair Value $2.68Bull $4.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.8% (2020) → −2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Baxter International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Instruments & Supplies · 198 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF37.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG36.68× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)15· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)23· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Baxter International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAX
Frequently asked questions
Is Baxter International Inc (BAX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.68 versus a price of $22.93, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAX?
Our model-based fair value for Baxter International Inc is $2.68 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.93.
What is the quality score of BAX?
Baxter International Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.68 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.68, optimistic scenario $4.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Baxter International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.68, about −88% upside versus a price of $22.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.68, optimistic scenario $4.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Baxter International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Baxter International Inc pay a dividend?
Baxter International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Baxter International Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAX use?
Our models discount Baxter International Inc at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Baxter International Inc that is +25.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Baxter International Inc (BAX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Baxter International Inc grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +25.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Baxter International Inc (BAX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Baxter International Inc (+25.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.76 %: that much free cash flow Baxter International Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Baxter International Inc it is $2.68 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $22.93. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Baxter International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, BAX trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.93, fair value $2.68, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.68). For Baxter International Inc the two are $20.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Baxter International Inc worth?
The market values Baxter International Inc at about $11.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $22.93; our models calculate a fair value of $2.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAX?
Our models span a range for Baxter International Inc: cautious scenario $2.68, base $2.68, optimistic $4.50 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $22.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BAX?
The PEG ratio of Baxter International Inc is 36.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Baxter International Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −15.0%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAX from its 52-week high?
Baxter International Inc trades at $22.93, about 28% below its 52-week high of $31.77 and 46% above the low of $15.72 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Baxter International Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Medline Inc, Becton, Dickinson and Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Baxter International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $22.93, calculated fair value $2.68 (−88%), Quality Score 43/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAX calculated?
We run Baxter International Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Baxter International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $22.93. Our model-based fair value is $2.68, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Baxter International Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Baxter International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The market capitalisation of Baxter International Inc is $11.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Baxter International Inc is 1.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Earnings per share at Baxter International Inc are $−2.01. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The dividend yield of Baxter International Inc is 1.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The net margin of Baxter International Inc is −8.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Baxter International Inc is −15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Baxter International Inc is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
The operating margin of Baxter International Inc is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Revenue at Baxter International Inc is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Baxter International Inc (BAX)?
Earnings per share at Baxter International Inc are growing +238% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Baxter International Inc (BAX) carry?
The net debt of Baxter International Inc is $8.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 24.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 18, 2026