Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk IDR 7,180, price IDR 3,590, upside +100.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,725 IDR – 4,989 IDR · fair‑value band 5,385 IDR – 8,975 IDR · the 3,590 IDR price screens below the 7,180 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Indonesia, rest of Asia, New York, and Europe. It operates through Corporate Banking, Institutional Banking, Commercial Banking, Consumer Banking, Treasury & International Banking, Head Office, and Subsidiaries segments.
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PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Indonesia, rest of Asia, New York, and Europe. It operates through Corporate Banking, Institutional Banking, Commercial Banking, Consumer Banking, Treasury & International Banking, Head Office, and Subsidiaries segments. The company offers savings; savings plan and FIPF products; loans; credit cards; bancassurance, payroll, and simulation services; safe deposit boxes, bank references, bonds, foreign bank notes, and mobile banking services; services to collect payments or valuable documents; and Xpora, a digital solution for small and medium enterprises. It also provides business banking, funding, lending, trade finance, smart remittance, foreign direct investment, collection and liquidity management, payment management, supply chain financing, consumer financing, wealth management, and custody and trust services; financial institution products; solutions for industrial sectors; and treasury products. In addition, the company offers insurance and venture capital services; securities; and ATM, phone and SMS banking, mobile and internet banking, and internet payment gateway services. PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) currently trades at 3,590 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7,180 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 6,446 IDR per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the 3,590 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3,085 IDR, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 5,385 IDR (bear) to 8,975 IDR (bull), the price of 3,590 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 91.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 68.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 20.0T IDR in FY2025, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 134T IDR (≈ $13.4B) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) 545.14 IDR · Net margin 21.8% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 47.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 100%, BBNI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 5,385 IDRFair Value 7,180 IDRBull 8,975 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (398.77 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 27%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−29.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −31.2% a year for the price and −3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)47% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BBNI
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7,180 IDR versus a price of 3,590 IDR, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BBNI?
Our model-based fair value for Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 7,180 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,590 IDR.
What is the quality score of BBNI?
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7,180 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5,385 IDR, optimistic scenario 8,975 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7,180 IDR, about +100% upside versus a price of 3,590 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 5,385 IDR, optimistic scenario 8,975 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 50.8T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -29.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BBNI use?
Our models discount Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk that is -29.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies -29.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (-29.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.77 %: that much free cash flow Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk it is 7,180 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 3,590 IDR. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BBNI trades below its calculated fair value: price 3,590 IDR, fair value 7,180 IDR, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BBNI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,590 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7,180 IDR). For Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk the two are 3,590 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk at about 134T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 3,590 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 7,180 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBNI?
Our models span a range for Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 5,385 IDR, base 7,180 IDR, optimistic 8,975 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 3,590 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BBNI?
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7,180 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 0.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 1.9.
What is the PEG ratio of BBNI?
The PEG ratio of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BBNI from its 52-week high?
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk trades at 3,590 IDR, about 15% below its 52-week high of 4,230 IDR and 19% above the low of 3,010 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7,180 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 3,590 IDR, calculated fair value 7,180 IDR (+100%), Quality Score 55/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BBNI calculated?
We run Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7,180 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 3,590 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 7,180 IDR, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (5,385 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The market capitalisation of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 134T IDR (≈ $13.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 1.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Earnings per share at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk are 545.14 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The net margin of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 21.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
The operating margin of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 47.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Revenue at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)?
Earnings per share at Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk are growing +5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) carry?
The net debt of Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk is 91.8T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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