Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk IDR 111, price IDR 60, upside +85.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Bumi Citra Permai Tbk engages in construction of industrial warehousing, and office houses and housing in Indonesia. It operates through PT BCP Industrial Property and PT MPM Clean Water Management. The company engages in electricity and drinking water supply activities.
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PT Bumi Citra Permai Tbk engages in construction of industrial warehousing, and office houses and housing in Indonesia. It operates through PT BCP Industrial Property and PT MPM Clean Water Management. The company engages in electricity and drinking water supply activities. PT Bumi Citra Permai Tbk was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) currently trades at 60.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 111.20 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 46.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 241.00 IDR per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the 60.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 25.68 IDR, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 83.76 IDR (bear) to 138.65 IDR (bull), the price of 60.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk reported revenue of 112B IDR in FY2025 versus 60.4B IDR in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was 16.0B IDR in FY2025, compounding +236.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 85.8B IDR (≈ $4.8M) · P/E ratio 3.2 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) 18.48 IDR · Net margin 14.2% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 23.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 85%, BCIP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 83.76 IDRFair Value 111.20 IDRBull 138.65 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (13.57 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs −5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+82% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Is Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 111.20 IDR versus a price of 60.00 IDR, about +85% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BCIP?
Our model-based fair value for Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 111.20 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 60.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of BCIP?
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 111.20 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 83.76 IDR, optimistic scenario 138.65 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bumi Citra Permai Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 111.20 IDR, about +85% upside versus a price of 60.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 83.76 IDR, optimistic scenario 138.65 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 128B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bumi Citra Permai Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +30.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BCIP use?
Our models discount Bumi Citra Permai Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bumi Citra Permai Tbk that is +30.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies +30.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (+30.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.86 %: that much free cash flow Bumi Citra Permai Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bumi Citra Permai Tbk it is 111.20 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 60.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bumi Citra Permai Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BCIP trades below its calculated fair value: price 60.00 IDR, fair value 111.20 IDR, a gap of about +85% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCIP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (60.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (111.20 IDR). For Bumi Citra Permai Tbk the two are 51.20 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bumi Citra Permai Tbk worth?
The market values Bumi Citra Permai Tbk at about 85.8B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 60.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 111.20 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCIP?
Our models span a range for Bumi Citra Permai Tbk: cautious scenario 83.76 IDR, base 111.20 IDR, optimistic 138.65 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 60.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BCIP?
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 111.20 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCIP from its 52-week high?
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk trades at 60.00 IDR, about 53% below its 52-week high of 128.00 IDR and 11% above the low of 54.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 111.20 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bumi Citra Permai Tbk?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bumi Citra Permai Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 60.00 IDR, calculated fair value 111.20 IDR (+85%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCIP calculated?
We run Bumi Citra Permai Tbk through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 111.20 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Bumi Citra Permai Tbk currently trades 85 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 60.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 111.20 IDR, about +85% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bumi Citra Permai Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (83.76 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) come from?
Earnings per share at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk grew −5.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.6 %, EBIT margin −11.3 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The market capitalisation of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 85.8B IDR (≈ $4.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Earnings per share at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk are 18.48 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The net margin of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 14.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
The operating margin of Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Revenue at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk is growing +46.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP)?
Earnings per share at Bumi Citra Permai Tbk are growing +227% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bumi Citra Permai Tbk (BCIP) hold?
Bumi Citra Permai Tbk holds more cash than debt, 2.1B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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