BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of BCPG Public Company Limited THB 3.07, price THB 6.80, upside -54.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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BCPG Public Company Limited, a renewable energy company, engages in the solar power, hydropower, wind power, and natural gas businesses in Thailand, Japan, Laos, and Taiwan. It operates through Production and Distribution of Electricity; and Oil Storage and Seaport Service segments.
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BCPG Public Company Limited, a renewable energy company, engages in the solar power, hydropower, wind power, and natural gas businesses in Thailand, Japan, Laos, and Taiwan. It operates through Production and Distribution of Electricity; and Oil Storage and Seaport Service segments. The company offers smart energy solutions, including blockchain-based peer-to-peer energy trading project; energy management system; district cooling system; battery; and decarbonization solutions. It also develops transmission line systems and oil terminal. In addition, the company operates as an EPC contractor that provides operation and maintenance services. Further, it provides project development, construction, and operation management; investment management; and asset management services. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand. BCPG Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited.
Stock analysis
BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) currently trades at 6.80 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.07 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 121.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 6.30 THB per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 6.80 THB price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 0.7700 THB, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.08 THB (bear) to 3.84 THB (bull), the price of 6.80 THB sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
BCPG Public Company Limited reported revenue of 3.6B THB in FY2025 versus 4.7B THB in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was 855M THB in FY2025, compounding −19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 22.5B THB (≈ $674M) · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 3.41 · EPS (TTM) 0.4800 THB · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 24.1% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −55%, BCPG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.08 THBFair Value 3.07 THBBull 3.84 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0951 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20% vs −11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.59% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.6% a year for the price and +6.5% for the forecasts.
Compare BCPG Public Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−55% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth50% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.80× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)5.73× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA16.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.69× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)62· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BCPG Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCPG
Frequently asked questions
Is BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.07 THB versus a price of 6.80 THB, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BCPG?
Our model-based fair value for BCPG Public Company Limited is 3.07 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.80 THB.
What is the quality score of BCPG?
BCPG Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.07 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.08 THB, optimistic scenario 3.84 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BCPG Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.07 THB, about −55% upside versus a price of 6.80 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.08 THB, optimistic scenario 3.84 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
BCPG Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.9B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does BCPG Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
BCPG Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BCPG Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BCPG use?
Our models discount BCPG Public Company Limited at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BCPG Public Company Limited that is +17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BCPG Public Company Limited grew -3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BCPG Public Company Limited (+17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.75 %: that much free cash flow BCPG Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BCPG Public Company Limited it is 3.07 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 6.80 THB. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BCPG Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BCPG trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.80 THB, fair value 3.07 THB, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCPG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.80 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.07 THB). For BCPG Public Company Limited the two are 3.73 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BCPG Public Company Limited worth?
The market values BCPG Public Company Limited at about 22.5B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 6.80 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 3.07 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCPG?
Our models span a range for BCPG Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 2.08 THB, base 3.07 THB, optimistic 3.84 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 6.80 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BCPG?
BCPG Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.07 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 0.8, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 16.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BCPG?
The PEG ratio of BCPG Public Company Limited is 1.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BCPG Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCPG from its 52-week high?
BCPG Public Company Limited trades at 6.80 THB, about 26% below its 52-week high of 9.21 THB and 28% above the low of 5.30 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.07 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BCPG Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BCPG Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 6.80 THB, calculated fair value 3.07 THB (−55%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCPG calculated?
We run BCPG Public Company Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.07 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BCPG Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 6.80 THB. Our model-based fair value is 3.07 THB, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BCPG Public Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.84 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (2.08 THB to 3.84 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) come from?
Earnings per share at BCPG Public Company Limited grew −8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.0 %, EBIT margin −5.5 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BCPG Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The market capitalisation of BCPG Public Company Limited is 22.5B THB (≈ $674M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BCPG Public Company Limited is 3.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
Earnings per share at BCPG Public Company Limited are 0.4800 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The dividend yield of BCPG Public Company Limited is 5.1% (payout 72.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The net margin of BCPG Public Company Limited is 24.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BCPG Public Company Limited is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BCPG Public Company Limited is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
The operating margin of BCPG Public Company Limited is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
Revenue at BCPG Public Company Limited is growing +50.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG)?
Earnings per share at BCPG Public Company Limited are growing +373% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BCPG Public Company Limited (BCPG) carry?
The net debt of BCPG Public Company Limited is 22.6B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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