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Bioceltix S.A. (BCX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bioceltix S.A. PLN 12.46, price PLN 73.50, upside -83.1%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · PL

BS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Bioceltix S.A.

BCX · WAR

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 12.46 PLN · Strongly overvalued (−83.1%)
!Quality 28/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

126.80 PLN 29.70 PLN Fair Value 12.46 PLN Nov 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range 29.70 PLN – 126.80 PLN · fair‑value band 8.22 PLN – 15.58 PLN · the 73.50 PLN price screens above the 12.46 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Bioceltix S.A. engages in the development of stem cell-based biopharmaceuticals for veterinary use.

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Bioceltix S.A. engages in the development of stem cell-based biopharmaceuticals for veterinary use. The company's products include BCX-CM-J, a stem-cell based biological drug for the treatment of osteoarthritis in dogs; BCX-CM-AD, a drug candidate based on allogeneic stem cells for the treatment of atopic dermatitis in dogs; and BCX-EM, a drug candidate based on allogeneic mesenchymal stem cells for the treatment of arthritis in horses. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Wroclaw, Poland.

Stock analysis

Bioceltix S.A. (BCX) currently trades at 73.50 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.46 PLN, 83.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: 8.22 PLN (bear) to 15.58 PLN (bull), the price of 73.50 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Bioceltix S.A. reported revenue of 0 PLN in FY2025 versus 0 PLN in FY2021. Reported net income was −15.2M PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 513M PLN (≈ $132M) · EPS (TTM) −3.29 PLN · Return on equity −33.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −85.3% · Free cash flow −13.9M PLN · Net cash 32.8M PLN.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −83%, BCX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 8.22 PLN Fair Value 12.46 PLN Bull 15.58 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) 6.62 PLN 8.87 PLN 13.25 PLN 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 6.62 PLN 8.87 PLN 13.25 PLN 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BCX screens overvalued: fair value 83% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 625 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Below median
Fair Value upside −83.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −19.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.80× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Bioceltix S.A. · Fair Value
12.46 PLN −83%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bioceltix S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCX

Frequently asked questions

Is Bioceltix S.A. (BCX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12.46 PLN versus a price of 73.50 PLN, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BCX?
Our model-based fair value for Bioceltix S.A. is 12.46 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 73.50 PLN.
What is the quality score of BCX?
Bioceltix S.A. has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12.46 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.22 PLN, optimistic scenario 15.58 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bioceltix S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12.46 PLN, about −83% upside versus a price of 73.50 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.22 PLN, optimistic scenario 15.58 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bioceltix S.A. it is 12.46 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 73.50 PLN. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bioceltix S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BCX trades above its calculated fair value: price 73.50 PLN, fair value 12.46 PLN, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (73.50 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (12.46 PLN). For Bioceltix S.A. the two are 61.04 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bioceltix S.A. worth?
The market values Bioceltix S.A. at about 513M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 73.50 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 12.46 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCX?
Our models span a range for Bioceltix S.A.: cautious scenario 8.22 PLN, base 12.46 PLN, optimistic 15.58 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 73.50 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bioceltix S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −33.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCX from its 52-week high?
Bioceltix S.A. trades at 73.50 PLN, about 28% below its 52-week high of 102.20 PLN and 4% above the low of 71.00 PLN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 12.46 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bioceltix S.A.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bioceltix S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 73.50 PLN, calculated fair value 12.46 PLN (−83%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCX calculated?
We run Bioceltix S.A. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 12.46 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bioceltix S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 73.50 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 12.46 PLN, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bioceltix S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (15.58 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (8.22 PLN to 15.58 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Bioceltix S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
The market capitalisation of Bioceltix S.A. is 513M PLN (≈ $132M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
Earnings per share at Bioceltix S.A. are −3.29 PLN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bioceltix S.A. is −33.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bioceltix S.A. (BCX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bioceltix S.A. is −85.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Bioceltix S.A. (BCX) generate?
The free cash flow of Bioceltix S.A. is −13.9M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Bioceltix S.A. (BCX) hold?
Bioceltix S.A. holds more cash than debt, 32.8M PLN net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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