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Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Beach Energy Limited $1.49, price $0.61, upside +142.7%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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BE
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Beach Energy Limited
BEPTF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $1.49 · Strongly undervalued (+142.7%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓11.4% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2775 – $1.33 · fair‑value band $0.9600 – $2.33 · the $0.6140 price screens below the $1.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Beach Energy Limited operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company. The company engages in the operated and non-operated, onshore and offshore, and oil and gas production in the basins of Australia and New Zealand.
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Beach Energy Limited operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company. The company engages in the operated and non-operated, onshore and offshore, and oil and gas production in the basins of Australia and New Zealand. It explores, develops, produces, and transports hydrocarbons, including liquified natural gas, liquified petroleum gas, condensate, and oil; and various natural gases. The company was formerly known as Beach Petroleum Limited and changed its name to Beach Energy Limited in December 2009. Beach Energy Limited was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Stock analysis
Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF) currently trades at $0.6140, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.49, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.48 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.6140 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.4500, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.9600 (bear) to $2.33 (bull), the price of $0.6140 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Beach Energy Limited reported revenue of A$2.1B in FY2025 versus A$1.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$43.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0400 · Dividend yield 11.4% · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% · Operating margin 19.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 143%, BEPTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9600
Fair Value $1.49
Bull $2.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.40
$2.27
$4.42
76
Growth DCF
$1.34
$2.42
$4.20
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.7200
$1.15
$1.78
74
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.40
$2.27
$4.42
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.8300
$1.38
$2.27
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.7200
$1.15
$1.78
74
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.00
$1.66
$2.51
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9500
$1.48
$2.32
67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.2700
$0.4900
$0.6700
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.2700
$0.4500
$0.5200
67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$0.4000
$0.5300
$0.6700
67
EV/Revenue
$0.5300
$0.7600
$0.9900
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.4800
$0.6500
$0.9600
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.34
$2.42
$4.20
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.8300
$1.42
$2.27
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
94
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
’14
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’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
32.0% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.2% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.4%
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Compare Beach Energy Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 287 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.49 versus a price of $0.6140, about +143% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BEPTF?
Our model-based fair value for Beach Energy Limited is $1.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6140.
What is the quality score of BEPTF?
Beach Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9600, optimistic scenario $2.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beach Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.49, about +143% upside versus a price of $0.6140 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.9600, optimistic scenario $2.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Beach Energy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Beach Energy Limited pay a dividend?
Beach Energy Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Beach Energy Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BEPTF use?
Our models discount Beach Energy Limited at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Beach Energy Limited that is -6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Beach Energy Limited grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Beach Energy Limited (-6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.87 %: that much free cash flow Beach Energy Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beach Energy Limited it is $1.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.6140. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beach Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BEPTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.6140, fair value $1.49, a gap of about +143% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BEPTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6140); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.49). For Beach Energy Limited the two are $0.8760 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beach Energy Limited worth?
The market values Beach Energy Limited at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.6140; our models calculate a fair value of $1.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BEPTF?
Our models span a range for Beach Energy Limited: cautious scenario $0.9600, base $1.49, optimistic $2.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.6140). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beach Energy Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BEPTF from its 52-week high?
Beach Energy Limited trades at $0.6140, about 36% below its 52-week high of $0.9530 and 5% above the low of $0.5840 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beach Energy Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beach Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.6140, calculated fair value $1.49 (+143%), Quality Score 58/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BEPTF calculated?
We run Beach Energy Limited through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Beach Energy Limited currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.6140. Our model-based fair value is $1.49, about +143% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beach Energy Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.9600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.9600 to $2.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Beach Energy Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The market capitalisation of Beach Energy Limited is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beach Energy Limited is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Earnings per share at Beach Energy Limited are $−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The dividend yield of Beach Energy Limited is 11.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The net margin of Beach Energy Limited is −2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beach Energy Limited is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beach Energy Limited is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
The operating margin of Beach Energy Limited is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Revenue at Beach Energy Limited is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF)?
Earnings per share at Beach Energy Limited are growing −32.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Beach Energy Limited (BEPTF) carry?
The net debt of Beach Energy Limited is A$399M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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