Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG €52.20, price €73.00, upside -28.5%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €34.08 – €109.21 · fair‑value band €24.87 – €88.79 · the €73.00 price screens above the €52.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG, through its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in Germany. The company offers asset management, wealth management, succession planning, and lending services to private investors, companies, foundations, and associations.
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Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG, through its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in Germany. The company offers asset management, wealth management, succession planning, and lending services to private investors, companies, foundations, and associations. It also provides private banking services, including private and company pension, financial planning, and portfolio optimization, as well as digital insurance services; real estate financing advisory services; and investment brokerage, order execution, and proprietary trading services, as well as advises medium-sized companies on equity and debt financing. The company was formerly known as Berliner Freiverkehr (Aktien) GmbH and changed its name to Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG in 1999. Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
Stock analysis
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV) currently trades at €73.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €52.20, 28.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of €58.71 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the €73.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €7.66, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €24.87 (bear) to €88.79 (bull), the price of €73.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG reported revenue of €318M in FY2025 versus €353M in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was €27.3M in FY2025, compounding −17.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €948M · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 1.84 · EPS (TTM) €3.42 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 31.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −28%, BFV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €24.87Fair Value €52.20Bull €88.79
Price €73.00 · Upside -28.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.14 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.52% → 24%
2025 sits 79% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.2% a year for the price.
Compare Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 455 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)31.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets23.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)31.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)49.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.3× · Pricier than median
P/B6.38× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.01× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF19.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)94· sector 76
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)16· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BFV
Frequently asked questions
Is Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €52.20 versus a price of €73.00, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BFV?
Our model-based fair value for Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is €52.20 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €73.00.
What is the quality score of BFV?
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €52.20 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €24.87, optimistic scenario €88.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €52.20, about −28% upside versus a price of €73.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €24.87, optimistic scenario €88.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €216M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG pay a dividend?
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BFV use?
Our models discount Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.26 %: that much free cash flow Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG it is €52.20 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of €73.00. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, BFV trades above its calculated fair value: price €73.00, fair value €52.20, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BFV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€73.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€52.20). For Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG the two are €20.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG worth?
The market values Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG at about €948M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is €73.00; our models calculate a fair value of €52.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BFV?
Our models span a range for Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG: cautious scenario €24.87, base €52.20, optimistic €88.79 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price €73.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BFV?
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €52.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.4, P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 31.2%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BFV from its 52-week high?
Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG trades at €73.00, about 5% below its 52-week high of €77.00 and 13% above the low of €64.46 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €52.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price €73.00, calculated fair value €52.20 (−28%), Quality Score 79/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BFV calculated?
We run Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €52.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €73.00. Our model-based fair value is €52.20, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (€24.87 to €88.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The market capitalisation of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is €948M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is 1.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Earnings per share at Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG are €3.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The dividend yield of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is 0.8% (payout 17.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The net margin of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is 19.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
The operating margin of Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is 49.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Revenue at Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG is growing +18.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG (BFV)?
Earnings per share at Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG are growing +78.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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