BGC Group (BGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.4B
BGC Group
BGC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −2.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.98 – $12.65 · fair‑value band $2.12 – $3.54 · the $10.35 price screens above the $2.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
BGC Group (BGC) currently trades at $10.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.83, implying the stock looks roughly 72.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BGC Group generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue grew 44.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.6%. Net debt stands at $922M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.12 (bear case) to $3.54 (bull case); at $10.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -73%, BGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($12.98) versus Dividend Discount ($1.23). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BGC Group, Inc. operates as a financial brokerage and technology company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
BGC Group, Inc. operates as a financial brokerage and technology company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers various brokerage services, such as government bonds and corporate bonds as well as interest rate derivatives and credit derivatives, foreign exchange, fixed income products, equities and futures and options; and brokerage and trade execution of ECS products, including listed derivatives and physical commodities in the oil and refined, and environmental and energy transition markets; and ship chartering services. It also provides price discovery, trade execution, brokerage services, clearing, information, and other back-office services to financial and non-financial institutions. In addition, the company offers financial technology solutions, network and connectivity solutions, market data and related information services, market infrastructure, and post-trade services. Further, the company's integrated platform is designed to provide flexibility to customers regarding price discovery, trade execution and processing of transactions, as well as accessing liquidity through its platforms, for transactions executed either OTC or through an exchange. It primarily serves banks, broker-dealers, trading firms, hedge funds, governments, corporations, investment firms, commodity trading firms, and end users. BGC Group, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BGC Group reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $155M in FY2025, compounding +5.7%/yr from FY2021.
BGC screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BGC Q2 Earnings Beat on Record Revenues, Stock Falls as Costs Rise Y/Y
- BGC Q2 Deep Dive: Diversified Growth and New Market Initiatives Drive Results
- The Bull Case For BGC Group (BGC) Could Change Following Q2 Beat And FMX–Fanatics Deal
- BGC (BGC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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