BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of BHG Group AB (publ) SEK 22.70, price SEK 19.77, upside +14.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 8.44 – kr 170.80 · fair‑value band kr 14.96 – kr 28.37 · the kr 19.77 price screens below the kr 22.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living.
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BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living. The Home Improvement segment operates as a drop shipping model for Do-It-Yourself (DIY) product categories, such as garden, construction, and renovation products. Its Value Home segment offers furniture and leisure products. The Premium Living segment provides furniture, home furnishing, and interior design products. It sells its products under the Bygghemma, Taloon, Golvpoolen, Nordiska Fönster, Outlet1, Hafa, Hylte Jakt & Trädgård, Trademax, Chilli, Furniture 1, Furniturebox, Outlet1, Arc E-Commerce, Trendrum, Hemfint, Nordic Nest, Svenssons, Sleepo, KitchenTime, and Svenssons i Lammhult brands through e-commerce platforms and showrooms. The company was formerly known as Bygghemma Group First AB (publ) and changed its name to BHG Group AB (publ) in May 2020. BHG Group AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) currently trades at kr 19.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 22.70, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 27.46 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 19.77 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 6.84, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 14.96 (bear) to kr 28.37 (bull), the price of kr 19.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BHG Group AB (publ) reported revenue of 10.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 12.7B SEK in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 145M SEK in FY2025, compounding −25.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6B SEK (≈ $358M) · P/E ratio 40.3 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.4900 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 15%, BHG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 14.96Fair Value kr 22.70Bull kr 28.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.3598 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27% vs −2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)40.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.63× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BHG Group AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BHG
Frequently asked questions
Is BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 22.70 versus a price of kr 19.77, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BHG?
Our model-based fair value for BHG Group AB (publ) is kr 22.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 19.77.
What is the quality score of BHG?
BHG Group AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 22.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 14.96, optimistic scenario kr 28.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BHG Group AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 22.70, about +15% upside versus a price of kr 19.77 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 14.96, optimistic scenario kr 28.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
BHG Group AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BHG Group AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BHG use?
Our models discount BHG Group AB (publ) at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.82, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BHG Group AB (publ) that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BHG Group AB (publ) grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BHG Group AB (publ) (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.40 %: that much free cash flow BHG Group AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BHG Group AB (publ) it is kr 22.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 19.77. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BHG Group AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BHG trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 19.77, fair value kr 22.70, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 19.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 22.70). For BHG Group AB (publ) the two are kr 2.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BHG Group AB (publ) worth?
The market values BHG Group AB (publ) at about 3.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 19.77; our models calculate a fair value of kr 22.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHG?
Our models span a range for BHG Group AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 14.96, base kr 22.70, optimistic kr 28.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 19.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BHG?
BHG Group AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 22.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BHG Group AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BHG from its 52-week high?
BHG Group AB (publ) trades at kr 19.77, about 41% below its 52-week high of kr 33.44 and 7% above the low of kr 18.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 22.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BHG Group AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BHG Group AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 19.77, calculated fair value kr 22.70 (+15%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHG calculated?
We run BHG Group AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 22.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. BHG Group AB (publ) currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 19.77. Our model-based fair value is kr 22.70, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BHG Group AB (publ) right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 14.96 to kr 28.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of BHG Group AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The market capitalisation of BHG Group AB (publ) is 3.6B SEK (≈ $358M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BHG Group AB (publ) is 0.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Earnings per share at BHG Group AB (publ) are kr 0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The net margin of BHG Group AB (publ) is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BHG Group AB (publ) is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BHG Group AB (publ) is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The operating margin of BHG Group AB (publ) is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Revenue at BHG Group AB (publ) is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Earnings per share at BHG Group AB (publ) are growing −26.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) carry?
The net debt of BHG Group AB (publ) is 1.8B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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