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BHG Group (BHG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 3.4B SEK

BG BHG Group BHG · ST
Pricekr 20.44
Fair Valuekr 16.21
Upside-20.7%
Quality52/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: High Range kr 12.16 – kr 20.27 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −9.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 21% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from kr 12.16 (bear) to kr 20.27 (bull), base kr 16.21. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 171.60 kr 8.44 Fair Value kr 16.21 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 8.44 – kr 171.60 · fair‑value band kr 12.16 – kr 20.27 · the kr 20.44 price screens above the kr 16.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

BHG Group (BHG) currently trades at kr 20.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 16.21, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, BHG Group generated revenue of 10.6B SEK at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at 1.8B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 12.16 (bear case) to kr 20.27 (bull case); at kr 20.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -21%, BHG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 19.96 kr 35.71 kr 59.79 80
Residual Income kr 22.86 kr 21.57 kr 17.04 76
Rev-Margin DCF kr 12.86 kr 23.79 kr 37.20 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 19.91 kr 36.49 kr 62.43 38
Owner Earnings kr 21.62 kr 39.30 kr 66.96 31
5Y Revenue Exit kr 12.86 kr 23.74 kr 37.77 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 26.57 kr 50.64 kr 79.83 41
5Y P/E Exit kr 10.15 kr 18.41 kr 27.23 38
10Y Revenue Exit kr 14.68 kr 25.39 kr 40.30 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 23.87 kr 44.14 kr 73.12 37
10Y P/E Exit kr 13.44 kr 21.68 kr 32.07 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 5.51 kr 21.29 kr 28.86 54
Lynch FV kr 5.21 kr 7.44 kr 9.67 50
PEG = 1.0 kr 5.21 kr 7.44 kr 9.67 46
EPV kr 6.84 kr 8.88 kr 10.63 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 0.5100 kr 1.03 kr 1.55 70
DDM Multi-Stage kr 0.5100 kr 0.8900 kr 1.08 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 12.16 kr 16.21 kr 20.27 63
P/S Multiple kr 10.34 kr 13.78 kr 17.23 58
P/B Multiple kr 10.34 kr 13.78 kr 17.23 55
EV/EBIT kr 17.18 kr 24.92 kr 32.65 53
EV/EBITDA kr 34.00 kr 47.34 kr 60.68 54
EV/Revenue kr 9.61 kr 16.32 kr 23.02 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 16.36 kr 21.92 kr 32.72 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 19.96 kr 35.71 kr 59.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 12.86 kr 23.79 kr 37.20 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 22.86 kr 21.57 kr 17.04 76
ROIC Compounder kr 6.84 kr 8.88 kr 10.63 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 9.12 kr 13.03 kr 16.94 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 25.39) versus Dividend Discount (kr 0.8900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 10.9B SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.4%
Net margin 0.8%
Return on equity 2.5%
Free cash flow 405M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 38.9
More key figures
Operating margin 3.7%
EPS (TTM) kr 0.4900
EPS growth (YoY) -26.2%
Net debt 1.8B SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 38
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living.

Full company description

BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living. The Home Improvement segment operates as a drop shipping model for Do-It-Yourself (DIY) product categories, such as garden, construction, and renovation products. Its Value Home segment offers furniture and leisure products. The Premium Living segment provides furniture, home furnishing, and interior design products. It sells its products under the Bygghemma, Taloon, Golvpoolen, Nordiska Fönster, Outlet1, Hafa, Hylte Jakt & Trädgård, Trademax, Chilli, Furniture 1, Furniturebox, Outlet1, Arc E-Commerce, Trendrum, Hemfint, Nordic Nest, Svenssons, Sleepo, KitchenTime, and Svenssons i Lammhult brands through e-commerce platforms and showrooms. The company was formerly known as Bygghemma Group First AB (publ) and changed its name to BHG Group AB (publ) in May 2020. BHG Group AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BHG Group reported revenue of kr 10.6B in FY2025 versus kr 12.7B in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was kr 145M in FY2025, compounding −25.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
10.6B SEK
Latest YoY
+6.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.8%
Revenue −4.4%/yr
FY21 kr 12.7B
FY22 kr 13.4B
FY23 kr 11.8B
FY24 kr 10.0B
FY25 kr 10.6B
Net income −25.9%/yr
FY21 kr 481M
FY22 kr 45.8M
FY23 −kr 1.6B
FY24 −kr 679M
FY25 kr 145M

BHG screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BHG Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BHG

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 109 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.24× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.58× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.31× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 6 · sector 34
FUTURE 52 · sector 39
PAST 10 · sector 7
HEALTH 88 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

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Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $245.34 $127.67 -48%
Alibaba Group BABA $114.97 $75.75 -34%
PDD Holdings PDD $84.14 $223.51 +166%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,814 $798.98 -56%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $190.16 $38.64 -80%
Sea Limited SE $106.22 $52.70 -50%
eBay Inc EBAY $117.20 $60.13 -49%
JD.com, Inc JD €25.95 €31.88 +23%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $16.86 $2.79 -83%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €38.18 €12.71 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is BHG Group (BHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 16.21 versus a price of kr 20.44, about −21% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BHG?
Our model-based fair value for BHG Group is kr 16.21 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 20.44.
What is the quality score of BHG?
BHG Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BHG Group (BHG)?
BHG Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BHG?
The net profit margin of BHG Group is about 1.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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