BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BHG Group AB (publ) stock SEK 20.27, price SEK 24.60, that is 17.6% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 8.44 – kr 153.40 · fair‑value band kr 12.17 – kr 28.34 · the kr 24.60 price screens above the kr 20.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living.
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The Home Improvement segment operates as a drop shipping model for Do-It-Yourself (DIY) product categories, such as garden, construction, and renovation products. Its Value Home segment offers furniture and leisure products.
The Premium Living segment provides furniture, home furnishing, and interior design products.
It sells its products under the Bygghemma, Taloon, Golvpoolen, Nordiska Fönster, Outlet1, Hafa, Hylte Jakt & Trädgård, Trademax, Chilli, Furniture 1, Furniturebox, Outlet1, Arc E-Commerce, Trendrum, Hemfint, Nordic Nest, Svenssons, Sleepo, KitchenTime, and Svenssons i Lammhult brands through e-commerce platforms and showrooms.
The company was formerly known as Bygghemma Group First AB (publ) and changed its name to BHG Group AB (publ) in May 2020. BHG Group AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) currently trades at kr 24.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 20.27, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 22.29 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 24.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 7.43, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 12.17 (bear) to kr 28.34 (bull), the price of kr 24.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BHG Group AB (publ) reported revenue of 10.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 12.7B SEK in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 145M SEK in FY2025, compounding −25.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.4B SEK (≈ $447M) Small · P/E ratio 28.9 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.8500 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −18%, BHG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 12.17Fair Value kr 20.27Bullkr 28.34
Price kr 24.60 · Downside -17.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.7289 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.6% vs −2.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price and +5.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−17.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.9× · Pricier than median
P/B0.75× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.55× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BHG Group AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BHG
Frequently asked questions
Is BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 20.27 versus a price of kr 24.60, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BHG?
Our model-based fair value for BHG Group AB (publ) is kr 20.27 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 24.60.
What is the quality score of BHG?
BHG Group AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 20.27 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 12.17, optimistic scenario kr 28.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BHG Group AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 20.27, about 18% lower versus a price of kr 24.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 12.17, optimistic scenario kr 28.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
BHG Group AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BHG Group AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BHG use?
Our models discount BHG Group AB (publ) at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.74, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BHG Group AB (publ) that is +9.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BHG Group AB (publ) grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BHG Group AB (publ) (+9.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.17 %: that much free cash flow BHG Group AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BHG Group AB (publ) it is kr 20.27 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of kr 24.60. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is BHG Group AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, BHG trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 24.60, fair value kr 20.27, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 24.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 20.27). For BHG Group AB (publ) the two are kr 4.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BHG Group AB (publ) worth?
The market values BHG Group AB (publ) at about 4.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is kr 24.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 20.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHG?
Our models span a range for BHG Group AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 12.17, base kr 20.27, optimistic kr 28.34 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price kr 24.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BHG?
BHG Group AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 20.27 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 43.3. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BHG Group AB (publ) (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BHG from its 52-week high?
BHG Group AB (publ) trades at kr 24.60, about 26% below its 52-week high of kr 33.44 and 33% above the low of kr 18.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 20.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BHG Group AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BHG Group AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price kr 24.60, calculated fair value kr 20.27 (−18%), Quality Score 60/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHG calculated?
We run BHG Group AB (publ) through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 20.27 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. BHG Group AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 24.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 20.27, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BHG Group AB (publ) right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 12.17 to kr 28.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BHG Group AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The market capitalisation of BHG Group AB (publ) is 4.4B SEK (≈ $447M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BHG Group AB (publ) is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Earnings per share at BHG Group AB (publ) are kr 0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The net margin of BHG Group AB (publ) is 1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BHG Group AB (publ) is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BHG Group AB (publ) is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
The operating margin of BHG Group AB (publ) is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Revenue at BHG Group AB (publ) is growing +11.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG)?
Earnings per share at BHG Group AB (publ) are growing +583% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BHG Group AB (publ) (BHG) carry?
The net debt of BHG Group AB (publ) is 1.8B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026