BHG Group (BHG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 3.4B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −9.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 21% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from kr 12.16 (bear) to kr 20.27 (bull), base kr 16.21. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 8.44 – kr 171.60 · fair‑value band kr 12.16 – kr 20.27 · the kr 20.44 price screens above the kr 16.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
BHG Group (BHG) currently trades at kr 20.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 16.21, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BHG Group generated revenue of 10.6B SEK at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at 1.8B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 12.16 (bear case) to kr 20.27 (bull case); at kr 20.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -21%, BHG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 25.39) versus Dividend Discount (kr 0.8900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living.
Full company description
BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Home Improvement, Value Home, and Premium Living. The Home Improvement segment operates as a drop shipping model for Do-It-Yourself (DIY) product categories, such as garden, construction, and renovation products. Its Value Home segment offers furniture and leisure products. The Premium Living segment provides furniture, home furnishing, and interior design products. It sells its products under the Bygghemma, Taloon, Golvpoolen, Nordiska Fönster, Outlet1, Hafa, Hylte Jakt & Trädgård, Trademax, Chilli, Furniture 1, Furniturebox, Outlet1, Arc E-Commerce, Trendrum, Hemfint, Nordic Nest, Svenssons, Sleepo, KitchenTime, and Svenssons i Lammhult brands through e-commerce platforms and showrooms. The company was formerly known as Bygghemma Group First AB (publ) and changed its name to BHG Group AB (publ) in May 2020. BHG Group AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BHG Group reported revenue of kr 10.6B in FY2025 versus kr 12.7B in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was kr 145M in FY2025, compounding −25.9%/yr from FY2021.
BHG screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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