Black Horse Mining Limited (BHL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$13.6M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
A solid business, screening 149% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.3800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (8 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
8‑month range A$0.1750 – A$0.6050 · fair‑value band A$0.3800 – A$0.6400 · the A$0.2050 price screens below the A$0.5100 fair value. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Black Horse Mining Limited (BHL) currently trades at A$0.2050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5100, implying the stock looks roughly 148.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Our scenario range runs from A$0.3800 (bear case) to A$0.6400 (bull case); at A$0.2050, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 149%, BHL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$0.5200) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.3600). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Black Horse Mining Limited engages in acquiring, exploring, and developing mineral resource projects in Australia. The company holds interest in the Mt Egerton gold Project located in Central Victoria, Australia. Black Horse Mining Limited was incorporated in 2024 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2016 – FY2020 · reported fiscal years
Black Horse Mining Limited reported revenue of A$14.7M in FY2020 versus A$17.7M in FY2016, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.9M in FY2020, compounding +65.0%/yr from FY2016.
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Peer Group
Gold · 258 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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