BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] A$0.51, price A$0.19, upside +168.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range A$0.1750 – A$0.6050 · fair‑value band A$0.3800 – A$0.6300 · the A$0.1900 price screens below the A$0.5100 fair value. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Black Horse Mining Limited engages in acquiring, exploring, and developing mineral resource projects in Australia. The company holds interest in the Mt Egerton gold Project located in Central Victoria, Australia. Black Horse Mining Limited was incorporated in 2024 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) currently trades at A$0.1900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5100, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$0.5600 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.1900 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.3600, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3800 (bear) to A$0.6300 (bull), the price of A$0.1900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] reported revenue of A$14.7M in FY2020 versus A$17.7M in FY2016, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.9M in FY2020, compounding +65.0%/yr from FY2016. FY2016 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap A$13.6M (≈ $9.4M) · Net margin 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% · Operating margin −146,680% · Free cash flow −A$63.0K · Net cash A$242K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 168%, BHL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3800Fair Value A$0.5100Bull A$0.6300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 200 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.5100 versus a price of A$0.1900, about +168% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BHL?
Our model-based fair value for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is A$0.5100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1900.
What is the quality score of BHL?
BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.5100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3800, optimistic scenario A$0.6300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.5100, about +168% upside versus a price of A$0.1900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3800, optimistic scenario A$0.6300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] it is A$0.5100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.1900. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BHL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1900, fair value A$0.5100, a gap of about +168% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5100). For BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] the two are A$0.3200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] worth?
The market values BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] at about A$13.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1900; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHL?
Our models span a range for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]: cautious scenario A$0.3800, base A$0.5100, optimistic A$0.6300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.1900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.1900, calculated fair value A$0.5100 (+168%), Quality Score 56/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHL calculated?
We run BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.5100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.1900. Our model-based fair value is A$0.5100, about +168% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.3800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]
How large is the market capitalisation of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The market capitalisation of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is A$13.6M (≈ $9.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The net margin of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is 13.2% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The operating margin of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is −146,680% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) generate?
The free cash flow of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is −A$63.0K (fiscal year 2020). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) hold?
BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] holds more cash than debt, A$242K net (fiscal year 2020). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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