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BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] A$0.16, price A$0.19, upside -13.5%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · AU

BF Thin data Oct 4, 2026

BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]

BHL · AU

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

Solidly profitable · 13.2% net margin (FY2020)
Quality 58/100
Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
Fair value A$0.1600 · Overvalued (−13.5%)
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −31.6 %/yr in AUD)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 15/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.6050 A$0.1750 Fair Value A$0.1600 Dec 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range A$0.1750 – A$0.6050 · fair‑value band A$0.1000 – A$0.2000 · the A$0.1850 price screens above the A$0.1600 fair value. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Black Horse Mining Limited engages in acquiring, exploring, and developing mineral resource projects in Australia. The company holds interest in the Mt Egerton gold Project located in Central Victoria, Australia. Black Horse Mining Limited was incorporated in 2024 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.

Stock analysis

BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) currently trades at A$0.1850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1600, 13.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 86/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1000 (bear) to A$0.2000 (bull), the price of A$0.1850 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] reported revenue of A$14.7M in FY2020 versus A$17.7M in FY2016, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$5.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$12.0M (≈ $8.3M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1300 · Return on equity −158% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.2% · Operating margin −2,914% · Free cash flow −A$1.9M · Net cash A$242K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −14%, BHL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1000 Fair Value A$0.1600 Bull A$0.2000
Price A$0.1850 · Upside -13.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.1300 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.1300 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BHL screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 217 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −15.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −93.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.05× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)12 · sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 21

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEM $115.34 $126.87 +10%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥30.01 ¥44.45 +48%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $185.83 $219.71 +18%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $135.39 $87.78 −35%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $239.30 $263.23 +10%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $99.03 $88.60 −11%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$143.10 HK$238.73 +67%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $24.06 $51.30 +113%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$22.11 A$19.86 −10%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $238.93 $262.82 +10%

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BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] · Fair Value
A$0.1600 −14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BHL

Frequently asked questions

Is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1600 versus a price of A$0.1850, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BHL?
Our model-based fair value for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is A$0.1600 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1850.
What is the quality score of BHL?
BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1600 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1000, optimistic scenario A$0.2000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1600, about −14% upside versus a price of A$0.1850 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1000, optimistic scenario A$0.2000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] it is A$0.1600 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.1850. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, BHL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1850, fair value A$0.1600, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1600). For BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] the two are A$0.0250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] worth?
The market values BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] at about A$12.0M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1850; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHL?
Our models span a range for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]: cautious scenario A$0.1000, base A$0.1600, optimistic A$0.2000 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.1850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −158.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.1850, calculated fair value A$0.1600 (−14%), Quality Score 58/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHL calculated?
We run BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$0.1850. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1600, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1000 to A$0.2000) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL]

How large is the market capitalisation of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The market capitalisation of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is A$12.0M (≈ $8.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
Earnings per share at BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] are A$−0.1300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is −158% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is −15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL)?
The operating margin of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is −2,914% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) generate?
The free cash flow of BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] is −A$1.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] (BHL) hold?
BLACKHORSE FPO [BHL] holds more cash than debt, A$242K net (fiscal year 2020). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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