Birchcliff Energy Ltd (BIR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$1.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (C$2.48 to C$5.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.54 – C$9.78 · fair‑value band C$2.48 – C$5.63 · the C$6.24 price screens above the C$5.63 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Birchcliff Energy Ltd (BIR) currently trades at C$6.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$5.63, implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Birchcliff Energy Ltd generated revenue of C$717M at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at C$619M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$2.48 (bear case) to C$5.63 (bull case); at C$6.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -10%, BIR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$9.70) versus Economic Profit (C$1.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Birchcliff Energy Ltd., an intermediate oil and natural gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, light oil, condensate, and other natural gas liquids in Western Canada.
Full company description
Birchcliff Energy Ltd., an intermediate oil and natural gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, light oil, condensate, and other natural gas liquids in Western Canada. The company holds 91% working interest in the Pouce Coupe area is located northwest of Grande Prairie, Alberta; and 75% working interest in the Gordondale area is located northwest of Grande Prairie, Alberta. It also holds interest in Elmworth area located in west of Grande Prairie, Alberta. Birchcliff Energy Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Birchcliff Energy Ltd reported revenue of C$696M in FY2025 versus C$877M in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$64.9M in FY2025, compounding −32.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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