Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bird Construction Inc $12.77, price $59.50, upside -78.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.21 – $59.50 · fair‑value band $9.50 – $15.96 · the $59.50 price screens above the $12.77 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Bird Construction Inc. provides construction services in Canada. The company primarily focuses on projects in the industrial, building, and infrastructure markets.
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Bird Construction Inc. provides construction services in Canada. The company primarily focuses on projects in the industrial, building, and infrastructure markets. It constructs large, complex industrial buildings, including manufacturing, processing, distribution, and warehouse facilities; and provides electrical and instrumentation, high voltage testing and commissioning services, as well as power line construction, structural, mechanical, and piping, including off-site metal and modular fabrication. It also involved in the civil construction operations, such as site preparation and earthworks, underground piping, utilities and foundation, drilling, blasting, and other concrete services, as well as contract mining, mine support, and greenfield and brownfield hydroelectric facilities; steel modular construction; and civil infrastructure operations comprising road, bridge, rail, and underground utilities installation. In addition, the company constructs and retrofits institutional facilities, include healthcare, long term care, post-secondary education, transportation, public safety and defence facilities, as well as K-12 schools, public spaces, and government buildings; offers industrial maintenance, repair, and operations services; and constructs new construction and retrofit of warehousing, laboratories, manufacturing and processing facilities, data centers, office buildings, retail spaces, film studio infrastructure, hotels, and mixed-use mid- to high-rise residential buildings. Further, it offers electrical and related system services, such as electrical and mechanical infrastructure design and installation, data communications, telecommunications, security, and lifecycle services. It serves oil and gas, chemicals, liquefied natural gas, natural resources, nuclear, power, renewable energy, and water and wastewater sectors. Bird Construction Inc. was founded in 1920 and is based in Mississauga, Canada.
Stock analysis
Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) currently trades at $59.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.77, 78.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.71 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $59.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.66, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.50 (bear) to $15.96 (bull), the price of $59.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bird Construction Inc reported revenue of C$3.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$47.4M in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 91.5 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.6500 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 240% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −79%, BIRDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.50Fair Value $12.77Bull $15.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 3.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.5% a year for the price and +14.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−78.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.5% · Above median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)91.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.54× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.94× · Pricier than median
P/FCF38.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA41.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)28· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bird Construction Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BIRDF
Frequently asked questions
Is Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.77 versus a price of $59.50, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BIRDF?
Our model-based fair value for Bird Construction Inc is $12.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $59.50.
What is the quality score of BIRDF?
Bird Construction Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.50, optimistic scenario $15.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bird Construction Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.77, about −79% upside versus a price of $59.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.50, optimistic scenario $15.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Bird Construction Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$3.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Bird Construction Inc pay a dividend?
Bird Construction Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bird Construction Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +27.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BIRDF use?
Our models discount Bird Construction Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bird Construction Inc that is +27.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bird Construction Inc grew +17.7 % a year. The price currently implies +27.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bird Construction Inc (+27.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.81 %: that much free cash flow Bird Construction Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bird Construction Inc it is $12.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $59.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bird Construction Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BIRDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $59.50, fair value $12.77, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BIRDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($59.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.77). For Bird Construction Inc the two are $46.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bird Construction Inc worth?
The market values Bird Construction Inc at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $59.50; our models calculate a fair value of $12.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BIRDF?
Our models span a range for Bird Construction Inc: cautious scenario $9.50, base $12.77, optimistic $15.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $59.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BIRDF?
Bird Construction Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 91.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.5, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 41.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bird Construction Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BIRDF from its 52-week high?
Bird Construction Inc trades at $59.50, at its 52-week high of $59.50 and 240% above the low of $17.49 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bird Construction Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bird Construction Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $59.50, calculated fair value $12.77 (−79%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BIRDF calculated?
We run Bird Construction Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bird Construction Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $59.50. Our model-based fair value is $12.77, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bird Construction Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) come from?
Earnings per share at Bird Construction Inc grew +8.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.1 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bird Construction Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The market capitalisation of Bird Construction Inc is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bird Construction Inc is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Earnings per share at Bird Construction Inc are $0.6500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 91.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The dividend yield of Bird Construction Inc is 1.4% (payout 129%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The net margin of Bird Construction Inc is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bird Construction Inc is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bird Construction Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
The operating margin of Bird Construction Inc is −0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Revenue at Bird Construction Inc is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF)?
Earnings per share at Bird Construction Inc are growing +21.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bird Construction Inc (BIRDF) carry?
The net debt of Bird Construction Inc is C$160M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026