BKW AG (BKW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BKW AG stock CHF 175, price CHF 125, upside +39.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 90.00 – CHF 179.74 · fair‑value band CHF 117.04 – CHF 252.86 · the CHF 125.40 price screens below the CHF 174.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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BKW AG, an energy and infrastructure company, plans, builds, and operates infrastructure to produce and supply energy to businesses, households, and the public sector in Switzerland, Germany, Italy, France, and internationally.
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It operates in three segments: Energy Solutions, Power Grid, and Infrastructure & Buildings. The Energy Solutions segment builds, operates, and maintains its portfolio of power plants.
This segment also sells energy; trades in electricity, certificates, and raw materials; and offers wind, solar, and smart energy services. Its Power Grid segment builds, operates, and maintains the company's distribution grid.
The Infrastructure and Buildings segment offers engineering planning and consulting services for energy, infrastructure, and environmental projects; integrated building technology solutions; and construction and maintenance services in the fields of energy, telecommunications, transport and water utility networks.
It also provides digital business models for renewable energy. The company was formerly known as BKW FMB Energie AG and changed its name to BKW AG in December 2011. BKW AG was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Bern, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
BKW AG (BKW) currently trades at CHF 125.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 174.64, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 98.93 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 125.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 24.87, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 117.04 (bear) to CHF 252.86 (bull), the price of CHF 125.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BKW AG reported revenue of CHF 4.2B in FY2025 versus CHF 3.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 357M in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 6.6B Mid · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) CHF 7.05 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at 39%, BKW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 117.04Fair Value CHF 174.64BullCHF 252.86
Price CHF 125.40 · Upside +39.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 2.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFCHF 62.41CHF 97.02CHF 149.7679
Growth DCFCHF 65.02CHF 97.74CHF 145.6678
Residual IncomeCHF 85.35CHF 89.78CHF 98.4676
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFCHF 62.41CHF 97.02CHF 149.7679
Owner EarningsCHF 38.31CHF 61.32CHF 96.3875
5Y Revenue ExitCHF 44.16CHF 68.51CHF 98.0872
5Y EBITDA ExitCHF 61.27CHF 98.82CHF 140.4875
5Y P/E ExitCHF 67.64CHF 110.10CHF 152.1970
10Y Revenue ExitCHF 48.59CHF 71.98CHF 100.2167
10Y EBITDA ExitCHF 61.04CHF 93.08CHF 131.9868
10Y P/E ExitCHF 65.14CHF 100.93CHF 140.7564
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddCHF 45.98CHF 104.85CHF 134.3865
PEG = 1.0CHF 17.42CHF 24.88CHF 32.3557
EPVCHF 19.62CHF 24.87CHF 29.5674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMCHF 36.19CHF 62.47CHF 96.1267
DDM Multi-StageCHF 36.19CHF 54.46CHF 76.1466
Multiples
P/E MultipleCHF 91.28CHF 121.70CHF 152.1363
P/S MultipleCHF 86.21CHF 114.94CHF 143.6858
P/B MultipleCHF 105.61CHF 140.81CHF 176.0155
EV/EBITCHF 39.68CHF 59.03CHF 78.3965
EV/EBITDACHF 61.78CHF 88.50CHF 115.2267
EV/RevenueCHF 28.58CHF 48.71CHF 68.8452
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)CHF 39.11CHF 52.41CHF 78.2354
Growth DCF
Growth DCFCHF 65.02CHF 97.74CHF 145.6678
Rev-Margin DCFCHF 44.16CHF 69.45CHF 96.6172
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeCHF 85.35CHF 89.78CHF 98.4676
ROIC CompounderCHF 19.62CHF 24.87CHF 29.5672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ECHF 69.25CHF 98.93CHF 128.6167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.3% vs 1.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.0% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business follows a typical regulated utility profile that provides stability yet shows limited durable competitive advantages across most areas because of thin supporting evidence.
Main risk: Drought and market turbulence have already reduced the 2026 EBIT outlook and continue to pressure revenue and margins in the established energy operations.
BKW is advancing large battery storage projects including a 400-megawatt plant at Mühleberg and sites in Germany aiming for over 500 megawatts by 2030. These investments arrive as the company lowered its 2026 EBIT outlook to the lower end after drought and market turbulence weighed on the first half. Will the storage push create enough new flexibility and revenue to counter pressures on its established energy operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+39.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BKW AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BKW
Frequently asked questions
Is BKW AG (BKW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 174.64 versus a price of CHF 125.40, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BKW?
Our model-based fair value for BKW AG is CHF 174.64 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 125.40.
What is the quality score of BKW?
BKW AG has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BKW AG (BKW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 174.64 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 117.04, optimistic scenario CHF 252.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BKW AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 174.64, about +39% upside versus a price of CHF 125.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario CHF 117.04, optimistic scenario CHF 252.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BKW AG (BKW)?
BKW AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 4.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does BKW AG pay a dividend?
BKW AG currently shows a dividend yield of 3.03% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into BKW AG (BKW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BKW AG would have to grow free cash flow by +8.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BKW use?
Our models discount BKW AG at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BKW AG that is +8.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BKW AG (BKW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BKW AG grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BKW AG (BKW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BKW AG (+8.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BKW AG (BKW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.59 %: that much free cash flow BKW AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BKW AG (BKW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BKW AG it is CHF 174.64 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of CHF 125.40. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BKW AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BKW trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 125.40, fair value CHF 174.64, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BKW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 125.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 174.64). For BKW AG the two are CHF 49.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BKW AG worth?
The market values BKW AG at about CHF 6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is CHF 125.40; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 174.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BKW?
Our models span a range for BKW AG: cautious scenario CHF 117.04, base CHF 174.64, optimistic CHF 252.86 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price CHF 125.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BKW?
BKW AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 174.64 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 13.6. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of BKW AG (BKW)?
Balance-sheet figures for BKW AG (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BKW from its 52-week high?
BKW AG trades at CHF 125.40, about 28% below its 52-week high of CHF 174.95 and 8% above the low of CHF 115.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 174.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BKW AG?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, Ørsted A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BKW AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price CHF 125.40, calculated fair value CHF 174.64 (+39%), Quality Score 48/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BKW calculated?
We run BKW AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 174.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BKW AG currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BKW AG (BKW)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was CHF 125.40. Our model-based fair value is CHF 174.64, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BKW AG right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (48/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range (CHF 117.04 to CHF 252.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BKW AG (BKW) come from?
Earnings per share at BKW AG grew +5.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BKW AG
How large is the market capitalisation of BKW AG (BKW)?
The market capitalisation of BKW AG is CHF 6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BKW AG (BKW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BKW AG is 1.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BKW AG (BKW)?
Earnings per share at BKW AG are CHF 7.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BKW AG (BKW)?
The dividend yield of BKW AG is 3.0% (payout 53.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BKW AG (BKW)?
The net margin of BKW AG is 8.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BKW AG (BKW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BKW AG is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BKW AG (BKW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BKW AG is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BKW AG (BKW)?
The operating margin of BKW AG is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BKW AG (BKW)?
Revenue at BKW AG is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BKW AG (BKW)?
Earnings per share at BKW AG are growing +7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BKW AG (BKW) carry?
The net debt of BKW AG is CHF 971M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026