Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Builders FirstSource Inc stock $86.45, price $62.54, upside +38.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.29 – $211.12 · fair‑value band $53.34 – $112.38 · the $62.54 price screens below the $86.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials for professional builders in new residential construction and repair, and remodeling in the United States.
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It offers manufactured products, such as factory-built substitutes for job-site framing, wood floor and roof trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood; Ready-Frame, a whole house framing solution; manufactured and semi-custom modular homes, and built in a temperature-controlled facility under its Pine Grove Homes and Pleasant Valley Homes brand names; manufactured housing plans including ranch, community, and single-section homes; manufacturing, assembly, and distribution of windows; and the assembly and distribution of interior and exterior door units.
The company also provides millwork, including interior trim and custom features under the Synboard brand name; specialty building products and services comprising vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trim, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboard, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation of products.
In addition, it offers drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders; dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products used in on-site house framing.
The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Stock analysis
Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) currently trades at $62.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $86.45, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $135.86 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the $62.54 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $28.94, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $53.34 (bear) to $112.38 (bull), the price of $62.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2009: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2009.
Builders FirstSource Inc reported revenue of $15.2B in FY2025 versus $19.9B in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $435M in FY2025, compounding −29.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.8B Mid · P/E ratio 169.0 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $0.3700 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 38%, BLDR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$53.34Fair Value $86.45Bull$112.38
Price $62.54 · Upside +38.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3173 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleDavid E RushDirector5,000 shares at $78.17$390,850May 8, 2026
BuyPaul S LevyDirector50,000 shares at $87.73$4.4MMar 13, 2026
Plus 36 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2009: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2009.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.6% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2009divided by the spin-off factor 1.0915
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.9% vs 18.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.7% a year for the price and −3.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Builders FirstSource draws strength from scale plus efficiency gains and stickier relationships via digital tools and prefabricated components, yet shows no clear durable moat beyond that in a cyclical sector with thin qualitative evidence.
Main risk: Home Depot, Lowe’s and other consolidators are expanding pro-focused distribution arms with acquisitions, which could draw customers away from Builders FirstSource or force lower pricing in overlapping segments such as lumber and components.
Bull case: By deepening its AI integrations such as the Digs partnership and expanding value-added prefabricated components, Builders FirstSource could increase customer stickiness and efficiency, helping it retain or gain share even against larger rivals.
Bear case: If aggressive consolidators like QXO or big-box players capture significant share through scale and technology, Builders FirstSource could face sustained volume and margin pressure in its core distribution and manufacturing activities.
Builders FirstSource supplies materials and components to professional homebuilders while investing in digital tools, ERP integration and prefabricated components to lift efficiency and customer retention. Weak housing activity is weighing on volumes and margins in the near term, yet those same moves could strengthen its position when demand recovers. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the efficiency gains and stickier relationships more than offset slower volumes, or will fierce competition limit the upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 255 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+38.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets3.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)0.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)169.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.56× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $86.45 versus a price of $62.54, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BLDR?
Our model-based fair value for Builders FirstSource Inc is $86.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $62.54.
What is the quality score of BLDR?
Builders FirstSource Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $86.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $53.34, optimistic scenario $112.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Builders FirstSource Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $86.45, about +38% upside versus a price of $62.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $53.34, optimistic scenario $112.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Builders FirstSource Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Builders FirstSource Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLDR use?
Our models discount Builders FirstSource Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Builders FirstSource Inc that is +4.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Builders FirstSource Inc grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Builders FirstSource Inc (+4.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.55 %: that much free cash flow Builders FirstSource Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Builders FirstSource Inc it is $86.45 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $62.54. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Builders FirstSource Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, BLDR trades below its calculated fair value: price $62.54, fair value $86.45, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($62.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($86.45). For Builders FirstSource Inc the two are $23.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Builders FirstSource Inc worth?
The market values Builders FirstSource Inc at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $62.54; our models calculate a fair value of $86.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLDR?
Our models span a range for Builders FirstSource Inc: cautious scenario $53.34, base $86.45, optimistic $112.38 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $62.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BLDR?
Builders FirstSource Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 169.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $86.45 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016 ex one-offs: 13.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BLDR?
The PEG ratio of Builders FirstSource Inc is 2.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Builders FirstSource Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BLDR from its 52-week high?
Builders FirstSource Inc trades at $62.54, about 52% below its 52-week high of $128.96 and 24% above the low of $50.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $86.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Builders FirstSource Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Builders FirstSource Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $62.54, calculated fair value $86.45 (+38%), Quality Score 58/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLDR calculated?
We run Builders FirstSource Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $86.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Builders FirstSource Inc currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $62.54. Our model-based fair value is $86.45, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Builders FirstSource Inc right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($53.34 to $112.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Builders FirstSource Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The market capitalisation of Builders FirstSource Inc is $6.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Builders FirstSource Inc is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Earnings per share at Builders FirstSource Inc are $0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 169.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The net margin of Builders FirstSource Inc is 0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Builders FirstSource Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Builders FirstSource Inc is 20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
The operating margin of Builders FirstSource Inc is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Revenue at Builders FirstSource Inc is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR)?
Earnings per share at Builders FirstSource Inc are growing −49.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) carry?
The net debt of Builders FirstSource Inc is $5.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026