Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €35.3B · ISIN DE0005190003
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Share price +3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, trading 55% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€129.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €50.97 – €96.83 · fair‑value band €129.69 – €161.76 · the €62.64 price screens below the €140.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) currently trades at €62.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €140.42, implying the stock looks roughly 124.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft generated revenue of €131B at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at €87.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €129.69 (bear case) to €161.76 (bull case); at €62.64, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at 124%, BMW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€220.51) versus Earnings-Based (€61.68). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands.
Full company description
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands. It also develops, manufactures, and sells scooters, and motorcycles for private use and special-purpose vehicles for operational use under the BMW Motorrad brand. In addition, the company provides car rentals; credit financing; leasing that include insurance and service products; financing for dealership and customer deposits; vehicle fleet financing services for corporate car fleets under the Alphabet brand; and financial services for the automotive sector. It sells its products through retail outlet, agent, and independent dealerships. Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €133B in FY2025 versus €111B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Citi opens upside catalyst watches on BMW and Forvia
- EU approves Mercedes, BMW and Seres joint control of Ionchi
- The Latest Color-Changing Car with E Ink Prism™ Inspired by Famous Superhero Will Exhibit at the BMW Welt
- Covestro joins BMW and Forvia in circular economy research project
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.78 | $228.25 | +21% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.80 | €167.67 | -53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.33 | $52.69 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.90 | $11.51 | -17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | -61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,875 | ₹8,236 | -41% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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