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Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €35.3B

BM Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMW · XETRA
Price€58.62
Fair Value€155.51
Upside+165.3%
Quality44/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 5.2% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
7.55% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range €145.01 – €179.14 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from €155.61 to €155.51 (−0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 165% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€145.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€96.83 €50.97 Fair Value €155.51 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €50.97 – €96.83 · fair‑value band €145.01 – €179.14 · the €58.62 price screens below the €155.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) currently trades at €58.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €155.51, implying the stock looks roughly 165.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft generated revenue of €131B at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at €87.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €145.01 (bear case) to €179.14 (bull case); at €58.62, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 165%, BMW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €142.56 €151.86 €167.86 76
ROIC Compounder €49.55 €69.83 €87.59 72
Gordon GGM €43.89 €91.25 €144.75 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €27.38 €76.90 €149.87 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €89.49 €242.95 €318.40 54
Lynch FV €47.81 €68.30 €88.80 50
PEG = 1.0 €47.81 €68.30 €88.80 46
EPV €49.55 €69.83 €87.59 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €43.89 €91.25 €144.75 70
DDM Multi-Stage €43.89 €68.54 €94.75 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €197.41 €263.21 €329.02 63
P/S Multiple €167.80 €223.73 €279.66 58
P/B Multiple €167.80 €223.73 €279.66 55
EV/EBIT €168.21 €248.34 €328.47 53
EV/EBITDA €254.34 €363.18 €472.03 54
EV/Revenue €89.86 €159.30 €228.75 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €86.33 €115.69 €172.67 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income €142.56 €151.86 €167.86 76
ROIC Compounder €49.55 €69.83 €87.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €156.71 €223.87 €291.03 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€223.87) versus Earnings-Based (€68.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €131B
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.1%
Net margin 5.2%
Return on equity 7.1%
Free cash flow −€3.0B FY2025
P/E ratio 5.2
More key figures
Operating margin 6.6%
EPS (TTM) €11.16
Dividend yield 7.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +21.3%
Net debt €87.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands.

Full company description

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands. It also develops, manufactures, and sells scooters, and motorcycles for private use and special-purpose vehicles for operational use under the BMW Motorrad brand. In addition, the company provides car rentals; credit financing; leasing that include insurance and service products; financing for dealership and customer deposits; vehicle fleet financing services for corporate car fleets under the Alphabet brand; and financial services for the automotive sector. It sells its products through retail outlet, agent, and independent dealerships. Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €133B in FY2025 versus €111B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€133B
Latest YoY
−6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−2.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+5.5%
Revenue +4.7%/yr
FY21 €111B
FY22 €143B
FY23 €155B
FY24 €142B
FY25 €133B
Net income −12.4%/yr
FY21 €12.4B
FY22 €17.9B
FY23 €11.3B
FY24 €7.3B
FY25 €7.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMW

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside +165% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.62× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.43× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.31× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.73× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 32
PAST 28 · sector 17
HEALTH 69 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 46

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $179.76 $224.63 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$80.55 HK$50.85 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 425,000 KRW 616,918 KRW +45%
General Motors Company GM $77.72 $56.93 -27%
Ferrari N.V RACE $376.64 $228.05 -39%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.86 C$4.00 -66%
Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ C$20.44 C$35.15 +72%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,191 CZK +235%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,803 ₹8,236 -40%
Kia Corporation 000270 145,000 KRW 350,994 KRW +142%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €155.51 versus a price of €58.62, about +165% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BMW?
Our model-based fair value for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €155.51 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €58.62.
What is the quality score of BMW?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 44/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW)?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €131B (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BMW?
The net profit margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is about 5.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft pay a dividend?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.71% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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