Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €35.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from €155.61 to €155.51 (−0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 165% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€145.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €50.97 – €96.83 · fair‑value band €145.01 – €179.14 · the €58.62 price screens below the €155.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) currently trades at €58.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €155.51, implying the stock looks roughly 165.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft generated revenue of €131B at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at €87.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €145.01 (bear case) to €179.14 (bull case); at €58.62, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 165%, BMW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€223.87) versus Earnings-Based (€68.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands.
Full company description
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands. It also develops, manufactures, and sells scooters, and motorcycles for private use and special-purpose vehicles for operational use under the BMW Motorrad brand. In addition, the company provides car rentals; credit financing; leasing that include insurance and service products; financing for dealership and customer deposits; vehicle fleet financing services for corporate car fleets under the Alphabet brand; and financial services for the automotive sector. It sells its products through retail outlet, agent, and independent dealerships. Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €133B in FY2025 versus €111B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Watch BMW: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Bayerische Motoren Werke (XTRA:BMW) Earnings Put Its Cheap Valuation Back In Focus
- NXP Trimension Ultra-Wideband Powers BMW Group’s Digital Key Plus and Presence Detection
- BMW Restructuring: What The Munich Cost Cuts Mean For Buyers And Enthusiasts
- BMW sends shocking letter to employees
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $179.76 | $224.63 | +25% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 145,000 KRW | 350,994 KRW | +142% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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