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Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Bharat Petroleum Corporation ₹793, price ₹308, upside +157.7%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Energy · IN · ISIN INE029A01011

BP Broad data Sep 28, 2026

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

BPCL · BSE

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value ₹792.55 · Strongly undervalued (+157.7%)

!Quality 53/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓7.3% dividend yield · Well covered

!Moderate moat 53/100

26 models, one by oneBear ₹562.06 to bull ₹1,004 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 53/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹122.56 – ₹387.80 · fair‑value band ₹562.06 – ₹1,004 · the ₹307.55 price screens below the ₹792.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited primarily engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum, and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons. The company's fuel stations sell petrol, diesel, automotive liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and compressed natural gas; operate convenience stores and restaurants; offer money transfer and insurance broking services; and provide vehicle servicing, repair, and maintenance services. It also provides LPG for domestic, commercial, and industrial applications under the Bharatgas brand name; piped natural gas; lubricants, such as automotive engine oils, gear oils, greases, and specialties, as well as industrial lubricants under the MAK brand name; and engages in the production of jet fuel, as well as provision of related transportation, storage, and into plane services to airlines. In addition, the company offers industrial fuels products, such as black and white oils, bitumen, petcoke, sulphur, propylene, petrochemicals, and solvents, as well as marine bunker fuels; and exports naphtha and fuel oils. Its marketing infrastructure includes a network of installations, depots, retail outlets, aviation fueling stations, and LPG distributors. The company was formerly known as Bharat Refineries Limited and changed its name to Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited in August 1977. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Mumbai, India.

Stock analysis

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) currently trades at ₹307.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹792.55, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹1,100 per share, and 21 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹307.55 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹154.69, and 4 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: ₹562.06 (bear) to ₹1,004 (bull), the price of ₹307.55 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of ₹4.5T in FY2026 versus ₹4.3T in FY2022, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹258B in FY2026, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap ₹1.3T (≈ $13.7B) · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) ₹57.60 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at 158%, BPCL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ₹562.06 Fair Value ₹792.55 Bull ₹1,004

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹17.41 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF ₹768.28 ₹1,106 ₹1,578 78

Growth DCF ₹795.10 ₹1,114 ₹1,544 76

Owner Earnings ₹356.66 ₹524.63 ₹759.43 74

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF ₹768.28 ₹1,106 ₹1,578 78

Owner Earnings ₹356.66 ₹524.63 ₹759.43 74

5Y Revenue Exit ₹715.65 ₹1,089 ₹1,542 70

5Y EBITDA Exit ₹509.97 ₹728.36 ₹964.33 74

5Y P/E Exit ₹595.03 ₹877.38 ₹1,152 69

10Y Revenue Exit ₹705.95 ₹1,040 ₹1,442 65

10Y EBITDA Exit ₹600.39 ₹798.61 ₹1,026 67

10Y P/E Exit ₹653.25 ₹898.56 ₹1,161 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd ₹405.06 ₹859.68 ₹1,090 64

PEG = 1.0 ₹130.51 ₹186.45 ₹242.38 55

EPV ₹678.64 ₹800.16 ₹906.48 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ₹201.58 ₹307.20 ₹420.68 66

DDM Multi-Stage ₹201.58 ₹288.85 ₹388.13 65

Multiples

P/E Multiple ₹625.46 ₹833.95 ₹1,042 63

P/S Multiple ₹759.49 ₹1,013 ₹1,266 58

P/B Multiple ₹311.70 ₹415.60 ₹519.49 55

EV/EBIT ₹599.00 ₹815.48 ₹1,032 66

EV/EBITDA ₹420.71 ₹577.77 ₹734.82 67

EV/Revenue ₹737.55 ₹1,075 ₹1,413 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ₹115.44 ₹154.69 ₹230.89 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF ₹795.10 ₹1,114 ₹1,544 76

Rev-Margin DCF ₹715.65 ₹1,100 ₹1,503 70

Economic Profit

Residual Income ₹344.59 ₹413.87 ₹626.53 73

ROIC Compounder ₹702.30 ₹859.09 ₹1,020 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E ₹473.37 ₹676.24 ₹879.11 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 65

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 40

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 57

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 59

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 46

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 70

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 48

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 32

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 48

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 78/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.0%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year

Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.0%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

+2.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−4.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)7.3%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.3% vs 4.2%, steady

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%

2026 sits 97% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Start year 2021 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

−12.0%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−1.6%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.5% a year for the price and −5.5% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.7%

Projected 2028 (sales)−2.2%

Projected 2029 (sales)−1.6%

Projected 2030 (sales)−1.1%

Projected 2031 (sales)−0.6%

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Bharat Petroleum Corporation · Fair Value
₹792.55 +61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bharat Petroleum Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BPCL.BSE

Frequently asked questions

Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹792.55 versus a price of ₹307.55, about +158% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of BPCL?

Our model-based fair value for Bharat Petroleum Corporation is ₹792.55 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹307.55.

What is the quality score of BPCL?

Bharat Petroleum Corporation has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹792.55 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹562.06, optimistic scenario ₹1,004. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Bharat Petroleum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ₹792.55, about +158% upside versus a price of ₹307.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹562.06, optimistic scenario ₹1,004. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

Bharat Petroleum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹4.5T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).

Does Bharat Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend?

Bharat Petroleum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).

What growth is priced into Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bharat Petroleum Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -12.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPCL use?

Our models discount Bharat Petroleum Corporation at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bharat Petroleum Corporation that is -12.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Bharat Petroleum Corporation grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies -12.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bharat Petroleum Corporation (-12.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.85 %: that much free cash flow Bharat Petroleum Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bharat Petroleum Corporation it is ₹792.55 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of ₹307.55. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 28, 2026, BPCL trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹307.55, fair value ₹792.55, a gap of about +158% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BPCL?

No. The price is what the market pays today (₹307.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹792.55). For Bharat Petroleum Corporation the two are ₹485.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Bharat Petroleum Corporation worth?

The market values Bharat Petroleum Corporation at about ₹1.3T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is ₹307.55; our models calculate a fair value of ₹792.55 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPCL?

Our models span a range for Bharat Petroleum Corporation: cautious scenario ₹562.06, base ₹792.55, optimistic ₹1,004 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price ₹307.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How far is BPCL from its 52-week high?

Bharat Petroleum Corporation trades at ₹307.55, about 21% below its 52-week high of ₹387.80 and 13% above the low of ₹271.50 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹792.55 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Bharat Petroleum Corporation?

From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price ₹307.55, calculated fair value ₹792.55 (+158%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BPCL calculated?

We run Bharat Petroleum Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹792.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bharat Petroleum Corporation currently trades 158 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹307.55. Our model-based fair value is ₹792.55, about +158% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Bharat Petroleum Corporation right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹562.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Bharat Petroleum Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The market capitalisation of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is ₹1.3T (≈ $13.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/E ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The price-to-earnings ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 5.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.

What is the P/S ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

Earnings per share at Bharat Petroleum Corporation are ₹57.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The dividend yield of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 7.3% (payout 39.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The net margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 5.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

The operating margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

Revenue at Bharat Petroleum Corporation is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL)?

Earnings per share at Bharat Petroleum Corporation are growing +88.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) carry?

The net debt of Bharat Petroleum Corporation is ₹432B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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