Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Baytex Energy Corp stock $3.13, price $4.18, that is 25.1% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.38 – $6.60 · fair‑value band $2.56 – $3.71 · the $4.18 price screens above the $3.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas.
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The company also holds 100% interest in Duvernay and Peace River properties in Alberta; and Lloydminster property in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Baytex Energy Corp. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) currently trades at $4.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.13, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.94 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the $4.18 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.13, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.56 (bear) to $3.71 (bull), the price of $4.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Baytex Energy Corp reported revenue of C$1.5B in FY2025 versus C$1.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$603M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B Mid · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2500 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −40.8% · Return on equity −4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 40.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −25%, BTE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.56Fair Value $3.13Bull$3.71
Price $4.18 · Downside -25.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−18.4% (2020) → 15.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.3% a year for the price and 0.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Operational momentum from Canadian heavy oil and Duvernay assets forms the main strength, while thin public signals and commodity exposure leave limited durable moat evidence as the key weakness.
Main risk: Oil price swings and regional differentials represent the single biggest risk to the business by pressuring cash flows from Canadian heavy oil and Duvernay operations.
Baytex has raised its 2026 production target after strong results from its Canadian heavy oil and Duvernay assets, while maintaining a net cash position that funds buybacks and dividends. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the operational momentum in its core Canadian operations outweigh the risks of oil price swings and regional differentials, or will valuation pressures dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−18.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−41.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)40.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−31.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.98× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Baytex Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTE
Frequently asked questions
Is Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.13 versus a price of $4.18, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BTE?
Our model-based fair value for Baytex Energy Corp is $3.13 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.18.
What is the quality score of BTE?
Baytex Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.13 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.56, optimistic scenario $3.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Baytex Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.13, about 25% lower versus a price of $4.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.56, optimistic scenario $3.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Baytex Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Baytex Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Baytex Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.55% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Baytex Energy Corp pays a dividend of $0.023 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 15, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.00 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Baytex Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTE use?
Our models discount Baytex Energy Corp at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Baytex Energy Corp that is +4.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Baytex Energy Corp grew +12.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Baytex Energy Corp (+4.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow Baytex Energy Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Baytex Energy Corp it is $3.13 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.18. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Baytex Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, BTE trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.18, fair value $3.13, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.13). For Baytex Energy Corp the two are $1.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Baytex Energy Corp worth?
The market values Baytex Energy Corp at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.18; our models calculate a fair value of $3.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTE?
Our models span a range for Baytex Energy Corp: cautious scenario $2.56, base $3.13, optimistic $3.71 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Baytex Energy Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −4.6%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BTE from its 52-week high?
Baytex Energy Corp trades at $4.18, about 24% below its 52-week high of $5.53 and 78% above the low of $2.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Baytex Energy Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Baytex Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.18, calculated fair value $3.13 (−25%), Quality Score 48/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTE calculated?
We run Baytex Energy Corp through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.13 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Baytex Energy Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.18. Our model-based fair value is $3.13, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Baytex Energy Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Baytex Energy Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The market capitalisation of Baytex Energy Corp is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Baytex Energy Corp is 2.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Earnings per share at Baytex Energy Corp are $−0.2500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The dividend yield of Baytex Energy Corp is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The net margin of Baytex Energy Corp is −40.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Baytex Energy Corp is −4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Baytex Energy Corp is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
The operating margin of Baytex Energy Corp is 40.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Revenue at Baytex Energy Corp is growing −31.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Baytex Energy Corp (BTE)?
Earnings per share at Baytex Energy Corp are growing +475% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) hold?
Baytex Energy Corp holds more cash than debt, C$834M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026