Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $3.0B
Baytex Energy Corp
BTE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $4.28 to $3.43 (−19.9%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.20 – $6.62 · fair‑value band $2.86 – $3.99 · the $4.18 price screens above the $3.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) currently trades at $4.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.43, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Baytex Energy Corp generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of -49.8%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $834M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.86 (bear case) to $3.99 (bull case); at $4.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 154% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -18%, BTE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($9.40) versus Dividend Discount ($1.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas.
Full company description
Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company also holds 100% interest in Duvernay and Peace River properties in Alberta; and Lloydminster property in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Baytex Energy Corp. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Baytex Energy Corp reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$603M in FY2025.
BTE screens 18% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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