BTS Group (BTGRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what BTS Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0741 – $0.3200 · fair‑value band $0.0445 – $0.1274 · the $0.0741 price screens above the $0.0731 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited engages in mass transportation, marketing, and other businesses in Thailand. It operates in three segments: Move, Mix, and Match.
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BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited engages in mass transportation, marketing, and other businesses in Thailand. It operates in three segments: Move, Mix, and Match. The Move segment operates and maintains BTS Sky Train system; constructs, installs, operates, and maintains electric rails; and provides train procurement services and other related, and bus rapid transit services. Its Mix segment offers marketing solutions through offline and online media; advertising, digital, and sales services; system installation and integration services; and insurance brokerage services for offline and online distribution channels, as well as services related to rabbit card. The Match segment offers investment in various businesses, such as hotel business, rental business, management business real estate for sale business, insurance business, asset management business restaurants operations, construction service business, golf course services, system installation service business, and other services business. The company invests in the securities of other companies; and provides management and consultancy, real estate development and financial services business, property development, architecture and engineering work consultancy, office space rental, ecommerce, electronic payment, electronic money, bill payment, and CRM loyalty program and coupon kiosks services, as well as lending services through digital platform. In addition, it publishes and distributes books for edutainment; develops software and provides technology and system integration services; and manages food and beverage businesses, as well as involved in cleaning services business. The company was formerly known as Tanayong Public Company Limited and changed its name to BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited in May 2010. BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
BTS Group (BTGRF) currently trades at $0.0741, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0731, implying the stock looks roughly 1.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.0731 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $0.0741 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $0.0273, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.0445 (bear) to $0.1274 (bull), the price of $0.0741 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BTS Group reported revenue of $23.1B in FY2026 versus $25.8B in FY2022, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.2B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/S ratio 0.05 · Net margin −5.0% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 6.4% · Revenue (TTM) $23.4B · Revenue growth (YoY) +3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −1%, BTGRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0445Fair Value $0.0731Bull $0.1274
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
33.0% (2021) → 3.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BTS Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTGRF
Frequently asked questions
Is BTS Group (BTGRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0731 versus a price of $0.0741, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BTGRF?
Our model-based fair value for BTS Group is $0.0731 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0741.
What is the quality score of BTGRF?
BTS Group has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BTS Group (BTGRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0731 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0445, optimistic scenario $0.1274. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BTS Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0731, about −1% upside versus a price of $0.0741 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.0445, optimistic scenario $0.1274. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
BTS Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BTS Group it is $0.0731 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.0741. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BTS Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, BTGRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0741, fair value $0.0731, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTGRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0741); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0731). For BTS Group the two are $0.0010 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BTS Group worth?
The market values BTS Group at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.0741; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0731 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTGRF?
Our models span a range for BTS Group: cautious scenario $0.0445, base $0.0731, optimistic $0.1274 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.0741). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is BTGRF from its 52-week high?
BTS Group trades at $0.0741, about 52% below its 52-week high of $0.1528 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0731 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BTS Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BTS Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.0741, calculated fair value $0.0731 (−1%), Quality Score 39/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTGRF calculated?
We run BTS Group through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0731, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. BTS Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with BTS Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.0445 to $0.1274). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of BTS Group
How large is the market capitalisation of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
The market capitalisation of BTS Group is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BTS Group is 0.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
The net margin of BTS Group is −5.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BTS Group is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BTS Group is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BTS Group (BTGRF)?
The operating margin of BTS Group is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BTS Group (BTGRF)?
Revenue at BTS Group is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BTS Group (BTGRF)?
Earnings per share at BTS Group are growing −0.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BTS Group (BTGRF) generate?
The free cash flow of BTS Group is $29.7B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BTS Group (BTGRF) carry?
The net debt of BTS Group is $169B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 13, 2026