BTS Group Holdings PCL ADR (BTSGY) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $657M · ISIN US0560051015

Below-average quality, and trading another 60% above our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• A fairly wide model range ($2.07 to $5.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.08 – $35.29 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $5.21 · the $6.81 price screens above the $4.25 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

BTS Group Holdings PCL ADR (BTSGY) currently trades at $6.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.25, implying the stock looks roughly 37.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, BTS Group Holdings PCL ADR generated revenue of $23.4B at a net margin of -4.9%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.4%. Net debt stands at $167B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.07 (bear case) to $5.21 (bull case); at $6.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -38%, BTSGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($13.28) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0017). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited engages in mass transportation, marketing, and other businesses in Thailand. It operates in three segments: Move, Mix, and Match.

Full company description

BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited engages in mass transportation, marketing, and other businesses in Thailand. It operates in three segments: Move, Mix, and Match. The Move segment operates and maintains BTS Sky Train system; constructs, installs, operates, and maintains electric rails; and provides train procurement services and other related, and bus rapid transit services. Its Mix segment offers marketing solutions through offline and online media; advertising, digital, and sales services; system installation and integration services; and insurance brokerage services for offline and online distribution channels, as well as services related to rabbit card. The Match segment offers investment in various businesses, such as hotel business, rental business, management business real estate for sale business, insurance business, asset management business restaurants operations, construction service business, golf course services, system installation service business, and other services business. The company invests in the securities of other companies; and provides management and consultancy, real estate development and financial services business, property development, architecture and engineering work consultancy, office space rental, ecommerce, electronic payment, electronic money, bill payment, and CRM loyalty program and coupon kiosks services, as well as lending services through digital platform. In addition, it publishes and distributes books for edutainment; develops software and provides technology and system integration services; and manages food and beverage businesses, as well as involved in cleaning services business. The company was formerly known as Tanayong Public Company Limited and changed its name to BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited in May 2010. BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

BTS Group Holdings PCL ADR reported revenue of $23.3B in FY2026 versus $26.1B in FY2022, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.2B in FY2026.

BTSGY screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

Peer Group

Railroads · 113 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.