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MTR Corporation (MTRJF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MTR Corporation $3.53, price $3.95, upside -10.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · Home Hong Kong · ISIN HK0066009694

MC MTR Corporation logo Some data Oct 3, 2026

MTR Corporation

MTRJF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $3.53 · Overvalued (−10.6%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Wide moat 65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.88 $0.0001 Fair Value $3.53 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0001 – $4.88 · fair‑value band $1.71 – $3.92 · the $3.95 price screens above the $3.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

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MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Hong Kong Transport Operations; Hong Kong Station Commercial Businesses; Hong Kong Property Rental and Management Businesses; Hong Kong Property Development; Mainland China and International Railway, Property Rental and Management Businesses; Mainland China Property Development; and Other Businesses segments. The company offers passenger operation and related services on the domestic mass transit railway system, the Airport Express, cross-boundary railway connections, light rail and bus feeder with railway system, and intercity railway transport. It is also involved in railway project management and property development businesses; station commercial business, including leasing of station retail space, leasing of advertising space inside trains and stations, and enabling of telecommunication services on the railway system; property business comprising property development, investment, management, and leasing management of shopping malls and offices; and investment in related new technologies. In addition, the company provides railway management, engineering, and technology training services. MTR Corporation Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

MTR Corporation (MTRJF) currently trades at $3.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.53, 10.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $5.34 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $3.95 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.87, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.71 (bear) to $3.92 (bull), the price of $3.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MTR Corporation reported revenue of HK$55.5B in FY2025 versus HK$47.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.0B in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $28.3B · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 3.33 · EPS (TTM) $0.3000 · Net margin 25.3% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 37.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −11%, MTRJF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.71 Fair Value $3.53 Bull $3.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $3.24 $3.44 $3.80 76
Growth-Adj P/E $3.74 $5.34 $6.94 67
Gordon GGM $1.54 $3.19 $5.07 66
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.96 $6.05 $8.04 65
Lynch FV $1.31 $1.87 $2.43 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.31 $1.87 $2.43 57
EPV $0.0100 $0.1600 $0.2900 64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.54 $3.19 $5.07 66
DDM Multi-Stage $1.54 $2.53 $3.35 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.53 $6.05 $7.56 63
P/S Multiple $1.71 $2.27 $2.84 58
P/B Multiple $3.67 $4.89 $6.12 55
EV/EBIT $1.20 $1.89 $2.59 64
EV/EBITDA $0.8700 $1.46 $2.04 65
EV/Revenue $0.5400 $1.16 $1.77 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.97 $2.64 $3.94 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.24 $3.44 $3.80 76
ROIC Compounder $0.0100 $0.1600 $0.2900 65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.74 $5.34 $6.94 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs 0.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

MTRJF screens overvalued: fair value 11% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 106 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.7% · Above median
Return on assets 3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 27.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 28.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.46× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.89× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $272.13 $153.47 −44%
CSX Corporation CSX $46.51 $12.91 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $86.56 $37.51 −57%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $121.14 $98.68 −19%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $309.00 $133.05 −57%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $288.00 $290.92 +1%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.69 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.97 ¥9.21 +54%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.66 ¥5.48 +18%
Getlink SE GET €18.83 €10.42 −45%

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MTR Corporation · Fair Value
$3.53 −11%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MTR Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTRJF

Frequently asked questions

Is MTR Corporation (MTRJF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.53 versus a price of $3.95, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTRJF?
Our model-based fair value for MTR Corporation is $3.53 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.95.
What is the quality score of MTRJF?
MTR Corporation has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.53 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.71, optimistic scenario $3.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MTR Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.53, about −11% upside versus a price of $3.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.71, optimistic scenario $3.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
MTR Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$55.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MTR Corporation it is $3.53 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $3.95. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MTR Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MTRJF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.95, fair value $3.53, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTRJF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.53). For MTR Corporation the two are $0.4200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MTR Corporation worth?
The market values MTR Corporation at about $28.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $3.95; our models calculate a fair value of $3.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTRJF?
Our models span a range for MTR Corporation: cautious scenario $1.71, base $3.53, optimistic $3.92 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $3.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTRJF?
MTR Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTRJF?
The PEG ratio of MTR Corporation is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
Balance-sheet figures for MTR Corporation (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTRJF from its 52-week high?
MTR Corporation trades at $3.95, about 13% below its 52-week high of $4.55 and 16% above the low of $3.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MTR Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MTR Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $3.95, calculated fair value $3.53 (−11%), Quality Score 45/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTRJF calculated?
We run MTR Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MTR Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.95. Our model-based fair value is $3.53, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MTR Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($1.71 to $3.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of MTR Corporation (MTRJF) come from?
Earnings per share at MTR Corporation grew −1.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MTR Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
The market capitalisation of MTR Corporation is $28.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MTR Corporation is 3.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corporation are $0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
The net margin of MTR Corporation is 25.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MTR Corporation is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MTR Corporation is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
The operating margin of MTR Corporation is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
Revenue at MTR Corporation is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MTR Corporation (MTRJF)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corporation are growing −28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MTR Corporation (MTRJF) generate?
The free cash flow of MTR Corporation is −HK$7.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MTR Corporation (MTRJF) carry?
The net debt of MTR Corporation is HK$44.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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