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Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Canadian National Railway Company BRL 10.04, price BRL 26.10, upside -61.5%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Canadian National Railway Company
CNIC34 · SAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
Quality 68/100
Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
13.7% dividend yield · Well covered
Wide moat 80/100
Broad data
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr in CAD)
Moderate debt
Fair value R$10.04 · Strongly overvalued (−61.5%)
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$15.96 – R$27.90 · fair‑value band R$5.34 – R$15.09 · the R$26.10 price screens above the R$10.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
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Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Stock analysis
Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34) currently trades at R$26.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$10.04, 61.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$20.18 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$26.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$3.63, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$5.34 (bear) to R$15.09 (bull), the price of R$26.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Canadian National Railway Company reported revenue of C$17.3B in FY2025 versus C$14.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$381B (≈ $72.9B) · P/E ratio 22.7 · P/S ratio 6.19 · EPS (TTM) R$1.15 · Dividend yield 13.7% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 21.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −62%, CNIC34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$5.34
Fair Value R$10.04
Bull R$15.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$5.61
R$9.84
R$16.10
78
Growth DCF
R$5.98
R$10.00
R$15.70
77
Residual Income
R$7.12
R$8.57
R$12.49
75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$5.61
R$9.84
R$16.10
78
Owner Earnings
R$4.59
R$8.41
R$14.07
74
5Y Revenue Exit
R$2.13
R$4.79
R$8.09
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$10.37
R$19.12
R$29.12
74
5Y P/E Exit
R$9.16
R$17.01
R$25.00
69
10Y Revenue Exit
R$3.21
R$5.78
R$8.74
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$8.46
R$15.35
R$23.58
67
10Y P/E Exit
R$7.71
R$13.94
R$20.67
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$8.07
R$16.25
R$20.43
66
EPV
R$6.82
R$8.79
R$10.52
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$5.10
R$7.36
R$9.71
69
DDM Multi-Stage
R$5.10
R$7.19
R$9.61
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$18.69
R$24.93
R$31.16
63
P/S Multiple
R$6.53
R$8.70
R$10.88
58
P/B Multiple
R$15.13
R$20.18
R$25.22
55
EV/EBIT
R$16.10
R$23.14
R$30.18
65
EV/EBITDA
R$15.89
R$22.85
R$29.82
67
EV/Revenue
R$0.4700
R$2.82
R$5.17
48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$2.71
R$3.63
R$5.42
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$5.98
R$10.00
R$15.70
77
Rev-Margin DCF
R$2.13
R$4.98
R$8.12
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$7.12
R$8.57
R$12.49
75
ROIC Compounder
R$6.97
R$9.49
R$12.23
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$13.57
R$19.39
R$25.20
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
68/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability
58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 38%
CNIC34 screens overvalued: fair value 62% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Royal Bank Of Canada And 2 More Canadian Dividend Stocks
- Canadian National Announces 2026-2027 Winter Operations Plan
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $272.13 | $153.47 | −44% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.51 | $12.91 | −72% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $86.56 | $37.51 | −57% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $309.00 | $133.05 | −57% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $288.00 | $290.92 | +1% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.69 | ¥5.65 | +20% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.62 | HK$25.59 | −22% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.97 | ¥9.21 | +54% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.66 | ¥5.48 | +18% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.83 | €10.42 | −45% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$10.04 versus a price of R$26.10, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNIC34?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian National Railway Company is R$10.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$26.10.
What is the quality score of CNIC34?
Canadian National Railway Company has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$10.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.34, optimistic scenario R$15.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian National Railway Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$10.04, about −62% upside versus a price of R$26.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$5.34, optimistic scenario R$15.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
Canadian National Railway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$17.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Canadian National Railway Company pay a dividend?
Canadian National Railway Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canadian National Railway Company it is R$10.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$26.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canadian National Railway Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CNIC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$26.10, fair value R$10.04, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNIC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$26.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$10.04). For Canadian National Railway Company the two are R$16.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canadian National Railway Company worth?
The market values Canadian National Railway Company at about R$381B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$26.10; our models calculate a fair value of R$10.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNIC34?
Our models span a range for Canadian National Railway Company: cautious scenario R$5.34, base R$10.04, optimistic R$15.09 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$26.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CNIC34 from its 52-week high?
Canadian National Railway Company trades at R$26.10, about 6% below its 52-week high of R$27.90 and 30% above the low of R$20.14 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$10.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canadian National Railway Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canadian National Railway Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$26.10, calculated fair value R$10.04 (−62%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNIC34 calculated?
We run Canadian National Railway Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$10.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Canadian National Railway Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$26.10. Our model-based fair value is R$10.04, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canadian National Railway Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$15.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R$5.34 to R$15.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Canadian National Railway Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The market capitalisation of Canadian National Railway Company is R$381B (≈ $72.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Canadian National Railway Company is 22.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canadian National Railway Company is 6.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Company are R$1.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The dividend yield of Canadian National Railway Company is 13.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The net margin of Canadian National Railway Company is 27.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canadian National Railway Company is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canadian National Railway Company is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
The operating margin of Canadian National Railway Company is 38.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
Revenue at Canadian National Railway Company is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34)?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Company are growing +1.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34) generate?
The free cash flow of Canadian National Railway Company is C$3.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Canadian National Railway Company (CNIC34) carry?
The net debt of Canadian National Railway Company is C$20.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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