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Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bumi Resources Tbk IDR 57, price IDR 193, upside -70.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · ID · ISIN ID1000068703

BR Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Bumi Resources Tbk

BUMI · JK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 56.78 IDR · Strongly overvalued (−71%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +4.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

464.00 IDR 51.00 IDR Fair Value 56.78 IDR Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 51.00 IDR – 464.00 IDR · fair‑value band 42.59 IDR – 70.98 IDR · the 193.00 IDR price screens above the 56.78 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

PT Bumi Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining activities in Indonesia. The company operates through three segments: Holding Company, Coal, and Minerals. It engages in the exploration, exploitation, mining, and sale of coal deposits; and explores gold and silver properties. The company also exports its products.

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PT Bumi Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining activities in Indonesia. The company operates through three segments: Holding Company, Coal, and Minerals. It engages in the exploration, exploitation, mining, and sale of coal deposits; and explores gold and silver properties. The company also exports its products. The company also exports its products. The company was formerly known as PT Bumi Modern Tbk. and changed its name to PT Bumi Resources Tbk in September 2000. PT Bumi Resources Tbk was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

Stock analysis

Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) currently trades at 193.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 56.78 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 239.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 56.78 IDR per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the 193.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 56.78 IDR, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 42.59 IDR (bear) to 70.98 IDR (bull), the price of 193.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Bumi Resources Tbk reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $84.2M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 71.7T IDR (≈ $7.2B) · P/E ratio 44.7 · P/S ratio 2.64 · EPS (TTM) 4.32 IDR · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 11.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −71%, BUMI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 42.59 IDR Fair Value 56.78 IDR Bull 70.98 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.19 IDR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth-Adj P/E 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 64
Lynch FV 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 58
Graham-Dodd n/a 56.78 IDR 113.56 IDR 55
All 5 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd n/a 56.78 IDR 113.56 IDR 55
Lynch FV 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 58
PEG = 1.0 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 54
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a n/a 56.78 IDR 50
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 56.78 IDR 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28% vs −19%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 28.5%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

BUMI screens 240% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 20% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 44.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.57× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 38.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.10× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)99 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)91 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥47.51 ¥32.88 −31%
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 11,850 IDR 4,827 IDR −59%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,997 ₹891.11 −70%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥26.03 ¥28.63 +10%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥20.35 ¥13.05 −36%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹428.00 ₹464.01 +8%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥14.23 ¥14.62 +3%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 980.00 IDR 356.60 IDR −64%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥28.24 ¥20.48 −27%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥15.75 ¥9.97 −37%

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56.78 IDR −240%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bumi Resources Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BUMI

Frequently asked questions

Is Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 56.78 IDR versus a price of 193.00 IDR, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BUMI?
Our model-based fair value for Bumi Resources Tbk is 56.78 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 193.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of BUMI?
Bumi Resources Tbk has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 56.78 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario 42.59 IDR, optimistic scenario 70.98 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bumi Resources Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 56.78 IDR, about −71% upside versus a price of 193.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 42.59 IDR, optimistic scenario 70.98 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Bumi Resources Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bumi Resources Tbk it is 56.78 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 193.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bumi Resources Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BUMI trades above its calculated fair value: price 193.00 IDR, fair value 56.78 IDR, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BUMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (193.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (56.78 IDR). For Bumi Resources Tbk the two are 136.22 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bumi Resources Tbk worth?
The market values Bumi Resources Tbk at about 71.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 193.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 56.78 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BUMI?
Our models span a range for Bumi Resources Tbk: cautious scenario 42.59 IDR, base 56.78 IDR, optimistic 70.98 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 193.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BUMI?
Bumi Resources Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 56.78 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 4.2, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 38.9.
What is the PEG ratio of BUMI?
The PEG ratio of Bumi Resources Tbk is 0.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bumi Resources Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BUMI from its 52-week high?
Bumi Resources Tbk trades at 193.00 IDR, about 60% below its 52-week high of 484.00 IDR and 87% above the low of 103.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 56.78 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bumi Resources Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bumi Resources Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 193.00 IDR, calculated fair value 56.78 IDR (−71%), Quality Score 46/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BUMI calculated?
We run Bumi Resources Tbk through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 56.78 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bumi Resources Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 193.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 56.78 IDR, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bumi Resources Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (70.98 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Bumi Resources Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
The market capitalisation of Bumi Resources Tbk is 71.7T IDR (≈ $7.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bumi Resources Tbk is 2.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Earnings per share at Bumi Resources Tbk are 4.32 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
The net margin of Bumi Resources Tbk is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bumi Resources Tbk is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bumi Resources Tbk is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
The operating margin of Bumi Resources Tbk is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Revenue at Bumi Resources Tbk is growing +19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)?
Earnings per share at Bumi Resources Tbk are growing +35.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) generate?
The free cash flow of Bumi Resources Tbk is −$66.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) carry?
The net debt of Bumi Resources Tbk is $316M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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