Carrefour SA (CA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carrefour SA stock €12.62, price €13.59, that is 7.1% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Generates free cash flow
8.7% dividend yield · Well covered
Positive coverage
Broad data
Costs just 5.5 times its yearly profit.
Fair value €12.62 · Fairly valued
Quality 52/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr in EUR)
Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers(7/15)
Narrow moat32/100 · thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Profit warning and lower guidance after riots and looting🚩Riots and looting hitting French stores🚩Hard discounters Aldi and Lidl gaining share🚩Regulatory scrutiny of franchise contracts
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.83 – €16.81 · fair‑value band €11.41 – €14.79 · the €13.59 price screens above the €12.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally.
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The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commerce sites.
It is also involved in the provision of financial services; banking and insurance services; property development; travel ticketing and leisure; agency; shopping mall rental; and franchise activities. Carrefour SA was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Massy, France.
Stock analysis
Carrefour SA (CA) currently trades at €13.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.62, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €45.48 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €13.59 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at €7.16, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €11.41 (bear) to €14.79 (bull), the price of €13.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carrefour SA reported revenue of €84.0B in FY2025 versus €71.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €319M in FY2025, compounding −26.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €9.6B Large · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) €2.49 · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −7%, CA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€11.41Fair Value €12.62Bull€14.79
Price €13.59 · Downside -7.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.2% vs −10.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.2% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited public data shows no clear moat for this grocery firm while low returns and margins remain the chief weaknesses.
Main risk: Aldi and Lidl could expand their low-price private-label model further in France and other European markets, drawing price-sensitive customers from Carrefour's hypermarkets and supermarkets and forcing sustained price cuts that compress margins.
Bull case: Carrefour could leverage its AI investments and shift toward convenience formats, private labels and agentic commerce to match discounter efficiency while retaining broader assortment appeal and strengthening franchise relationships through fairer terms.
Bear case: Persistent discounter pressure combined with franchise contract disputes could erode Carrefour's market position in France, reduce the viability of its store network and limit its ability to invest in growth areas over the coming years.
Carrefour's French stores took a direct hit from recent riots and looting that prompted a profit warning and lower guidance for the year. The group still reported like-for-like sales growth in the third quarter and stays on track with its cost-saving program. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet will the disruption in its home market fade quickly or persist into next year?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−7.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carrefour SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CA
Frequently asked questions
Is Carrefour SA (CA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.62 versus a price of €13.59, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CA?
Our model-based fair value for Carrefour SA is €12.62 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.59.
What is the quality score of CA?
Carrefour SA has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carrefour SA (CA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.62 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.41, optimistic scenario €14.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carrefour SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.62, about 7% lower versus a price of €13.59 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €11.41, optimistic scenario €14.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carrefour SA (CA)?
Carrefour SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €84.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Carrefour SA pay a dividend?
Carrefour SA currently shows a dividend yield of 8.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Carrefour SA (CA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Carrefour SA pays a dividend of €1.18 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. The payout ratio is 47.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.43 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Carrefour SA (CA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carrefour SA would have to grow free cash flow by -12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CA use?
Our models discount Carrefour SA at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Carrefour SA that is -12.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Carrefour SA (CA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Carrefour SA grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -12.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Carrefour SA (CA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Carrefour SA (-12.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.14 %: that much free cash flow Carrefour SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Carrefour SA (CA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carrefour SA it is €12.62 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €13.59. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Carrefour SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CA trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.59, fair value €12.62, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.62). For Carrefour SA the two are €0.9650 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carrefour SA worth?
The market values Carrefour SA at about €9.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €13.59; our models calculate a fair value of €12.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CA?
Our models span a range for Carrefour SA: cautious scenario €11.41, base €12.62, optimistic €14.79 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €13.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CA?
Carrefour SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
What is the PEG ratio of CA?
The PEG ratio of Carrefour SA is 0.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carrefour SA (CA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carrefour SA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CA from its 52-week high?
Carrefour SA trades at €13.59, about 19% below its 52-week high of €16.81 and 12% above the low of €12.12 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carrefour SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carrefour SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €13.59, calculated fair value €12.62 (−7%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CA calculated?
We run Carrefour SA through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €12.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Carrefour SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €13.59. Our model-based fair value is €12.62, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carrefour SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Carrefour SA (CA) come from?
Earnings per share at Carrefour SA grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Carrefour SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The market capitalisation of Carrefour SA is €9.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carrefour SA is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carrefour SA (CA)?
Earnings per share at Carrefour SA are €2.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The dividend yield of Carrefour SA is 8.7% (payout 47.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The net margin of Carrefour SA is 0.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carrefour SA is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carrefour SA (CA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carrefour SA is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carrefour SA (CA)?
The operating margin of Carrefour SA is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carrefour SA (CA)?
Revenue at Carrefour SA is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carrefour SA (CA)?
Earnings per share at Carrefour SA are growing −96.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Carrefour SA (CA) carry?
The net debt of Carrefour SA is €19.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026