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Circus SE (CA1) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Circus SE stock €0.43, price €1.49, upside -71.1%, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Industrials · DE · ISIN DE000A2YN355

CS Circus SE logo Thin data Oct 24, 2026

Circus SE

CA1 · XETRA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 71% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Fair value €0.4300 · Strongly overvalued (−71.1%)
Quality 31/100
Weak Growth
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€33.40 €1.42 Fair Value €0.4300 Jan 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

33‑month range €1.42 – €33.40 · fair‑value band €0.2800 – €0.5400 · the €1.49 price screens above the €0.4300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Circus SE, a technology company, engages in the development of AI-driven robotics for the food service industry. The company also provides integrated software platforms for operational management and control; and military supply solutions.

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In addition, it offers CA-1 Series 4, an AI-Robot for autonomous meal production; CircusOS, an AI-native operating system to power autonomous meal supply; and Fully AI, an advanced circus intelligence layer. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.

Stock analysis

Circus SE (CA1) currently trades at €1.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.4300, 71.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: €0.2800 (bear) to €0.5400 (bull), the price of €1.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Circus SE reported revenue of €1.6M in FY2025 versus €634K in FY2023, a compound +56.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€21.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €39.6M Micro · P/S ratio 14.4 · EPS (TTM) €−0.8200 · Return on equity −117% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.0% · Operating margin −514% · Revenue (TTM) €3.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) +720%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 93% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −71%, CA1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.2800 Fair Value €0.4300 Bull €0.5400
Price €1.49 · Upside -71.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) €0.2800 €0.4300 €0.5400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.2800 €0.4300 €0.5400 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 14
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 72
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 36
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 8
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 28
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

CA1 screens overvalued: fair value 71% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 785 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −71.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −42.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 719.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 13.34× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 27

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cummins Inc CMI $542.21 $359.16 −34% vs CA1
SIE SIE €255.70 €149.56 −42% vs CA1
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $276.80 $153.97 −44% vs CA1
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $893.21 $495.17 −45% vs CA1
Sandvik AB SAND kr 354.00 kr 194.33 −45% vs CA1
AMETEK, Inc AME $250.28 $125.77 −50% vs CA1
Eaton Corporation ETN $368.99 $174.39 −53% vs CA1
Emerson Electric Co EMR $163.11 $62.85 −61% vs CA1
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $438.51 $140.20 −68% vs CA1
GE Vernova Inc GEV $827.42 $142.61 −83% vs CA1

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Circus SE · Fair Value
€0.4300 −71%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Circus SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CA1

Frequently asked questions

Is Circus SE (CA1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.4300 versus a price of €1.49, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CA1?
Our model-based fair value for Circus SE is €0.4300 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.49.
What is the quality score of CA1?
Circus SE has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Circus SE (CA1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.4300 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.2800, optimistic scenario €0.5400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Circus SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.4300, about −71% upside versus a price of €1.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.2800, optimistic scenario €0.5400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Circus SE (CA1)?
Circus SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.0M (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Circus SE (CA1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Circus SE it is €0.4300 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of €1.49. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Circus SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, CA1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.49, fair value €0.4300, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CA1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.4300). For Circus SE the two are €1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Circus SE worth?
The market values Circus SE at about €39.6M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is €1.49; our models calculate a fair value of €0.4300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CA1?
Our models span a range for Circus SE: cautious scenario €0.2800, base €0.4300, optimistic €0.5400 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price €1.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Circus SE (CA1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Circus SE (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity −117.4%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CA1 from its 52-week high?
Circus SE trades at €1.49, about 93% below its 52-week high of €22.00 and 5% above the low of €1.42 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.4300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Circus SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Circus SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price €1.49, calculated fair value €0.4300 (−71%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CA1 calculated?
We run Circus SE through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.4300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Circus SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Circus SE (CA1)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was €1.49. Our model-based fair value is €0.4300, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Circus SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.5400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€0.2800 to €0.5400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Circus SE

How large is the market capitalisation of Circus SE (CA1)?
The market capitalisation of Circus SE is €39.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Circus SE (CA1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Circus SE is 14.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Circus SE (CA1)?
Earnings per share at Circus SE are €−0.8200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Circus SE (CA1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Circus SE is −117% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Circus SE (CA1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Circus SE is −47.0% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Circus SE (CA1)?
The operating margin of Circus SE is −514% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Circus SE (CA1)?
Revenue at Circus SE is growing +720% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Circus SE (CA1) generate?
The free cash flow of Circus SE is −€27.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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