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Cadeler A/S (CADLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Cadeler A/S $11.56, price $5.90, upside +95.9%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Cadeler A/S
CADLF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $11.56 · Strongly undervalued (+95.9%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +99.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 39.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 60/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.50 – $7.09 · fair‑value band $7.58 – $20.79 · the $5.90 price screens below the $11.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Cadeler A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore wind installation vessel contractor in Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, rest of Europe, the United States, and Taiwan.
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Cadeler A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore wind installation vessel contractor in Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, rest of Europe, the United States, and Taiwan. The company engages in the transport and installation of offshore wind turbine generators, foundations, and topsides and substations; maintenance of offshore wind turbine generators, and offshore structures and platforms; and offshore construction within the renewable space. It is also involved offshore decommissioning within the renewable space; salvage assistance; and heavy lift and project cargo. In addition, the company owns and operates ten offshore jack-up windfarm installation vessels. Cadeler A/S was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Cadeler A/S (CADLF) currently trades at $5.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.56, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $37.00 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $5.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.94, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.58 (bear) to $20.79 (bull), the price of $5.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Cadeler A/S reported revenue of €613M in FY2025 versus €60.9M in FY2021, a compound +78.1%/yr. Reported net income was €277M in FY2025, compounding +146.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) $0.9300 · Net margin 45.2% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 96%, CADLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.58
Fair Value $11.56
Bull $20.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7032 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$2.50
$3.37
$4.10
74
Residual Income
$4.61
$6.12
$9.78
72
ROIC Compounder
$2.50
$3.37
$4.10
70
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.50
$38.33
$53.78
61
Lynch FV
$19.80
$28.29
$36.77
59
PEG = 1.0
$19.80
$28.29
$36.77
55
EPV
$2.50
$3.37
$4.10
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$12.73
$16.97
$21.21
63
P/S Multiple
$2.68
$3.58
$4.47
58
P/B Multiple
$10.30
$13.74
$17.17
55
EV/EBIT
$7.45
$11.23
$15.02
65
EV/EBITDA
$7.83
$11.75
$15.66
66
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.2700
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.19
$2.94
$4.38
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.61
$6.12
$9.78
72
ROIC Compounder
$2.50
$3.37
$4.10
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$25.90
$37.00
$48.10
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
95
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
29
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+146.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+99.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.1%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+71.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−184% → 50%
2025 sits 317% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 51.9%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,658 | $1,116 | −33% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,876 | ₹1,994 | −49% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 367,000 KRW | 159,718 KRW | −56% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | $55.77 | $21.74 | −61% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €407.40 | €203.86 | −50% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $769.03 | $525.05 | −32% |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €95.00 | €62.20 | −35% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €43.14 | €66.31 | +54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Cadeler A/S (CADLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.56 versus a price of $5.90, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CADLF?
Our model-based fair value for Cadeler A/S is $11.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.90.
What is the quality score of CADLF?
Cadeler A/S has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.58, optimistic scenario $20.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cadeler A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.56, about +96% upside versus a price of $5.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.58, optimistic scenario $20.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
Cadeler A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €680M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cadeler A/S it is $11.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.90. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cadeler A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CADLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.90, fair value $11.56, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CADLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.56). For Cadeler A/S the two are $5.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cadeler A/S worth?
The market values Cadeler A/S at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.90; our models calculate a fair value of $11.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CADLF?
Our models span a range for Cadeler A/S: cautious scenario $7.58, base $11.56, optimistic $20.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CADLF from its 52-week high?
Cadeler A/S trades at $5.90, about 5% below its 52-week high of $6.20 and 33% above the low of $4.44 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cadeler A/S?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cadeler A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.90, calculated fair value $11.56 (+96%), Quality Score 44/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CADLF calculated?
We run Cadeler A/S through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cadeler A/S currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.90. Our model-based fair value is $11.56, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cadeler A/S right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($7.58 to $20.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Cadeler A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The market capitalisation of Cadeler A/S is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Cadeler A/S is 6.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cadeler A/S is 2.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
Earnings per share at Cadeler A/S are $0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The net margin of Cadeler A/S is 45.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cadeler A/S is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cadeler A/S is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
The operating margin of Cadeler A/S is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
Revenue at Cadeler A/S is growing +90.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +79.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cadeler A/S (CADLF)?
Earnings per share at Cadeler A/S are growing +26.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cadeler A/S (CADLF) generate?
The free cash flow of Cadeler A/S is −€888M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cadeler A/S (CADLF) carry?
The net debt of Cadeler A/S is €1.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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