Card Factory plc (CARD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 236M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from £1.99 to £2.01 (+1.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 190% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£1.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.3166 – £1.17 · fair‑value band £1.50 – £2.51 · the £0.6920 price screens below the £2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Card Factory plc (CARD) currently trades at £0.6920, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.01, implying the stock looks roughly 190.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Card Factory plc generated revenue of £583M at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at £190M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.50 (bear case) to £2.51 (bull case); at £0.6920, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 190%, CARD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£2.40) versus Dividend Discount (£0.5300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of cards, gifts, and celebration essentials in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Republic of Ireland, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Stores, Digital, Wholesale partnerships, and Printcraft.
Full company description
Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of cards, gifts, and celebration essentials in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Republic of Ireland, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Stores, Digital, Wholesale partnerships, and Printcraft. The company offers greeting cards and gifts through cardfactory stores, cardfactory online, and network of third-party retail partners; and personalised cards and gifts through online retailer, as well as manufacture and sell greeting cards and personalised gifts through its stores and digital businesses. It also provides printers; sells gift bags, tags, wrapping, packaging, and gifts; and operates as a property company. The company offers its products through various retail locations, as well as through its websites, such as cardfactory.co.uk and gettingpersonal.co.uk. Card Factory plc was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wakefield, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Card Factory plc reported revenue of £583M in FY2026 versus £364M in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was £31.2M in FY2026, compounding +40.1%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch CARD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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