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Card Factory plc (CARD) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 236M GBX

CF Card Factory plc CARD · LSE
Price£0.6920
Fair Value£2.01
Upside+190.5%
Quality57/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 5.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
7.36% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range £1.50 – £2.51 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from £1.99 to £2.01 (+1.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 190% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£1.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£1.17 £0.3166 Fair Value £2.01 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.3166 – £1.17 · fair‑value band £1.50 – £2.51 · the £0.6920 price screens below the £2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Card Factory plc (CARD) currently trades at £0.6920, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.01, implying the stock looks roughly 190.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Card Factory plc generated revenue of £583M at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at £190M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £1.50 (bear case) to £2.51 (bull case); at £0.6920, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 190%, CARD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £2.06 £2.82 £3.72 80
Residual Income £0.8000 £0.8400 £0.8700 76
Rev-Margin DCF £1.55 £2.36 £3.30 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £2.06 £2.95 £4.06 38
Owner Earnings £1.59 £2.29 £3.18 31
5Y Revenue Exit £1.55 £2.33 £3.30 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £2.29 £3.71 £5.36 41
5Y P/E Exit £1.54 £2.30 £3.09 38
10Y Revenue Exit £1.72 £2.42 £3.31 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £2.15 £3.24 £4.66 37
10Y P/E Exit £1.74 £2.40 £3.18 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.6200 £1.96 £2.61 54
Lynch FV £0.4300 £0.6200 £0.8000 50
PEG = 1.0 £0.4300 £0.6200 £0.8000 46
EPV £0.8200 £0.9400 £1.04 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.3500 £0.5900 £0.7600 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.3500 £0.5300 £0.6300 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £1.50 £2.01 £2.51 63
P/S Multiple £1.16 £1.55 £1.94 58
P/B Multiple £1.16 £1.55 £1.94 55
EV/EBIT £2.22 £3.02 £3.83 53
EV/EBITDA £2.82 £3.83 £4.83 54
EV/Revenue £1.24 £1.85 £2.47 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.5200 £0.6900 £1.04 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £2.06 £2.82 £3.72 80
Rev-Margin DCF £1.55 £2.36 £3.30 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £0.8000 £0.8400 £0.8700 76
ROIC Compounder £0.8200 £0.9400 £1.04 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £1.24 £1.78 £2.31 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£2.40) versus Dividend Discount (£0.5300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 583M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.6%
Net margin 5.4%
Return on equity 8.9%
Free cash flow 92.2M GBX FY2026
P/E ratio 7.3
More key figures
Operating margin 16.7%
EPS (TTM) £0.0900
Dividend yield 7.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -31.5%
Net debt 190M GBX FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of cards, gifts, and celebration essentials in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Republic of Ireland, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Stores, Digital, Wholesale partnerships, and Printcraft.

Full company description

Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of cards, gifts, and celebration essentials in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Republic of Ireland, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Stores, Digital, Wholesale partnerships, and Printcraft. The company offers greeting cards and gifts through cardfactory stores, cardfactory online, and network of third-party retail partners; and personalised cards and gifts through online retailer, as well as manufacture and sell greeting cards and personalised gifts through its stores and digital businesses. It also provides printers; sells gift bags, tags, wrapping, packaging, and gifts; and operates as a property company. The company offers its products through various retail locations, as well as through its websites, such as cardfactory.co.uk and gettingpersonal.co.uk. Card Factory plc was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wakefield, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Card Factory plc reported revenue of £583M in FY2026 versus £364M in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was £31.2M in FY2026, compounding +40.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
£583M
Latest YoY
+7.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.4%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Revenue +12.5%/yr
FY22 £364M
FY23 £463M
FY24 £511M
FY25 £543M
FY26 £583M
Net income +40.1%/yr
FY22 £8.1M
FY23 £44.2M
FY24 £49.5M
FY25 £47.8M
FY26 £31.2M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −3.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.6 pp

of which total revenue +4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp

EBIT margin −5.6 pp
Tax rate −0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Card Factory plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CARD

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +191% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.24× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.55× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 3.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 29
FUTURE 43 · sector 23
PAST 36 · sector 27
HEALTH 88 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 51

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $827.04 $405.44 -51%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $222.84 $164.16 -26%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $479.57 $488.39 +2%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $208.89 $181.10 -13%
Best Buy Co BBY $83.98 $109.12 +30%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥52.90 ¥40.40 -24%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $31.01 $35.52 +15%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $618.57 $423.35 -32%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $197.71 $117.29 -41%
Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 110.50 TWD 80.98 TWD -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Card Factory plc (CARD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.01 versus a price of £0.6920, about +190% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CARD?
Our model-based fair value for Card Factory plc is £2.01 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £0.6920.
What is the quality score of CARD?
Card Factory plc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Card Factory plc (CARD)?
Card Factory plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £583M (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CARD?
The net profit margin of Card Factory plc is about 5.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Card Factory plc pay a dividend?
Card Factory plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.44% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 14, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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