Card Factory PLC (CARD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Card Factory PLC £2.01, price £0.71, upside +182.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.3436 – £1.27 · fair‑value band £1.50 – £2.51 · the £0.7120 price screens below the £2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of cards, gifts, and celebration essentials in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Republic of Ireland, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Stores, Digital, Wholesale partnerships, and Printcraft.
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Card Factory plc operates as a specialist retailer of cards, gifts, and celebration essentials in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Republic of Ireland, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Stores, Digital, Wholesale partnerships, and Printcraft. The company offers greeting cards and gifts through cardfactory stores, cardfactory online, and network of third-party retail partners; and personalised cards and gifts through online retailer, as well as manufacture and sell greeting cards and personalised gifts through its stores and digital businesses. It also provides printers; sells gift bags, tags, wrapping, packaging, and gifts; and operates as a property company. The company offers its products through various retail locations, as well as through its websites, such as cardfactory.co.uk and gettingpersonal.co.uk. Card Factory plc was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wakefield, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Card Factory PLC (CARD) currently trades at £0.7120, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.01, implying the stock looks roughly 64.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £2.91 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the £0.7120 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.6100, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £1.50 (bear) to £2.51 (bull), the price of £0.7120 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Card Factory PLC reported revenue of £583M in FY2026 versus £364M in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was £31.2M in FY2026, compounding +40.1%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 248M GBX · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) £0.0900 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 182%, CARD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.50Fair Value £2.01Bull £2.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0266 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs −7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 11%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.2% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Below median
Fair Value upside+182% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.93× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Card Factory PLC (CARD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.01 versus a price of £0.7120, about +182% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CARD?
Our model-based fair value for Card Factory PLC is £2.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.7120.
What is the quality score of CARD?
Card Factory PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.50, optimistic scenario £2.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Card Factory PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.01, about +182% upside versus a price of £0.7120 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.50, optimistic scenario £2.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Card Factory PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £583M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Card Factory PLC pay a dividend?
Card Factory PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Card Factory PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -18.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CARD use?
Our models discount Card Factory PLC at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Card Factory PLC that is -18.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Card Factory PLC (CARD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Card Factory PLC grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies -18.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Card Factory PLC (CARD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Card Factory PLC (-18.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 37.11 %: that much free cash flow Card Factory PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Card Factory PLC it is £2.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £0.7120. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Card Factory PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CARD trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.7120, fair value £2.01, a gap of about +182% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.7120); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.01). For Card Factory PLC the two are £1.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Card Factory PLC worth?
The market values Card Factory PLC at about 248M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £0.7120; our models calculate a fair value of £2.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARD?
Our models span a range for Card Factory PLC: cautious scenario £1.50, base £2.01, optimistic £2.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £0.7120). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CARD?
Card Factory PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Card Factory PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARD from its 52-week high?
Card Factory PLC trades at £0.7120, about 31% below its 52-week high of £1.04 and 25% above the low of £0.5705 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Card Factory PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Card Factory PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £0.7120, calculated fair value £2.01 (+182%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARD calculated?
We run Card Factory PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Card Factory PLC currently trades 182 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.7120. Our model-based fair value is £2.01, about +182% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Card Factory PLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£1.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Card Factory PLC (CARD) come from?
Earnings per share at Card Factory PLC grew −3.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Card Factory PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The market capitalisation of Card Factory PLC is 248M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Card Factory PLC is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Earnings per share at Card Factory PLC are £0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The dividend yield of Card Factory PLC is 6.9% (payout 54.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The net margin of Card Factory PLC is 5.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Card Factory PLC is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Card Factory PLC is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
The operating margin of Card Factory PLC is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Revenue at Card Factory PLC is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Card Factory PLC (CARD)?
Earnings per share at Card Factory PLC are growing −31.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Card Factory PLC (CARD) carry?
The net debt of Card Factory PLC is 190M GBX (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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