CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CATES ELEKTRIK TRY 62.76, price TRY 32.20, upside +94.9%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Çates Elektrik Üretim Anonim Sirketi engages in the generation electricity through its thermal power plant. The company operates a total installed capacity of 314.68 MW and an annual generation capacity of 2,386,GWh. Çates Elektrik Üretim Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Mugla, Turkey.
Stock analysis
CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES) currently trades at 32.20 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 62.76 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 48.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 473.38 TRY per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the 32.20 TRY price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 22.21 TRY, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 40.85 TRY (bear) to 97.05 TRY (bull), the price of 32.20 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CATES ELEKTRIK reported revenue of 6.5B TRY in FY2026 versus 631M TRY in FY2022, a compound +79.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B TRY in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3B TRY (≈ $108M) · P/E ratio 2.9 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) 11.10 TRY · Net margin 27.5% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Operating margin −25.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 95%, CATES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 40.85 TRYFair Value 62.76 TRYBull 97.05 TRY
Price 32.20 TRY · Upside +94.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.95 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+94.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)23.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−25.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CATES ELEKTRIK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CATES
Frequently asked questions
Is CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 62.76 TRY versus a price of 32.20 TRY, about +95% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CATES?
Our model-based fair value for CATES ELEKTRIK is 62.76 TRY (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 32.20 TRY.
What is the quality score of CATES?
CATES ELEKTRIK has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 62.76 TRY (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 40.85 TRY, optimistic scenario 97.05 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CATES ELEKTRIK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 62.76 TRY, about +95% upside versus a price of 32.20 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 40.85 TRY, optimistic scenario 97.05 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
CATES ELEKTRIK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.7B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CATES ELEKTRIK would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +69.7 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CATES use?
Our models discount CATES ELEKTRIK at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CATES ELEKTRIK that is +0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CATES ELEKTRIK grew +69.7 % a year. The price currently implies +0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CATES ELEKTRIK (+0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.29 %: that much free cash flow CATES ELEKTRIK produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CATES ELEKTRIK it is 62.76 TRY per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 32.20 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CATES ELEKTRIK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, CATES trades below its calculated fair value: price 32.20 TRY, fair value 62.76 TRY, a gap of about +95% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CATES?
No. The price is what the market pays today (32.20 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (62.76 TRY). For CATES ELEKTRIK the two are 30.56 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CATES ELEKTRIK worth?
The market values CATES ELEKTRIK at about 5.3B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 32.20 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 62.76 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CATES?
Our models span a range for CATES ELEKTRIK: cautious scenario 40.85 TRY, base 62.76 TRY, optimistic 97.05 TRY per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 32.20 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CATES?
CATES ELEKTRIK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.9 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 62.76 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
Balance-sheet figures for CATES ELEKTRIK (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 15.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CATES from its 52-week high?
CATES ELEKTRIK trades at 32.20 TRY, about 55% below its 52-week high of 72.20 TRY and 8% above the low of 29.82 TRY (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 62.76 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CATES ELEKTRIK?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CATES ELEKTRIK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 32.20 TRY, calculated fair value 62.76 TRY (+95%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CATES calculated?
We run CATES ELEKTRIK through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 62.76 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CATES ELEKTRIK currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 32.20 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 62.76 TRY, about +95% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CATES ELEKTRIK right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (40.85 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (40.85 TRY to 97.05 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CATES ELEKTRIK
How large is the market capitalisation of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The market capitalisation of CATES ELEKTRIK is 5.3B TRY (≈ $108M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CATES ELEKTRIK is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
Earnings per share at CATES ELEKTRIK are 11.10 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The net margin of CATES ELEKTRIK is 27.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CATES ELEKTRIK is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CATES ELEKTRIK is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
The operating margin of CATES ELEKTRIK is −25.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
Revenue at CATES ELEKTRIK is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES)?
Earnings per share at CATES ELEKTRIK are growing +775% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CATES ELEKTRIK (CATES) carry?
The net debt of CATES ELEKTRIK is 108M TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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