Cake Box Holdings (CBOX) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 89.5M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +3.7% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (£1.32 to £2.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.03 – £4.12 · fair‑value band £1.32 – £2.64 · the £2.04 price screens below the £2.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Cake Box Holdings (CBOX) currently trades at £2.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.12, implying the stock looks roughly 4.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cake Box Holdings generated revenue of £52.8M at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 185.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.9%. Net debt stands at £17.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.32 (bear case) to £2.64 (bull case); at £2.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at 4%, CBOX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£3.22) versus Asset-Based (£0.4300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cake Box Holdings Plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail of fresh cream celebration cakes in the United Kingdom. The company sells cakes, cupcakes, cheesecakes, and treats; and party accessories, including balloons and candles.
Full company description
Cake Box Holdings Plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail of fresh cream celebration cakes in the United Kingdom. The company sells cakes, cupcakes, cheesecakes, and treats; and party accessories, including balloons and candles. It is also involved in franchising of specialist cake stores; property rental activities; and retail sales of Asian confectionary and savoury products. The company sells its products through its physical stores and online. Cake Box Holdings Plc was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Cake Box Holdings reported revenue of £59.7M in FY2026 versus £33.0M in FY2022, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was £5.2M in FY2026, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +24.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch CBOX: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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