Codan Limited (CDA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · AU · Market cap A$7.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −4.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$13.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.48 – A$44.49 · fair‑value band A$7.95 – A$13.90 · the A$41.06 price screens above the A$10.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Codan Limited (CDA) currently trades at A$41.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$10.99, implying the stock looks roughly 73.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Codan Limited generated revenue of A$762M at a net margin of 16.9%. Revenue grew 28.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.4%. Net debt stands at A$121M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$7.95 (bear case) to A$13.90 (bull case); at A$41.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -73%, CDA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$14.75) versus Asset-Based (A$1.93). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Codan Limited develops technology solutions for United Nations organizations, security and military agencies, government departments, corporates, individuals consumers, and small-scale miners. It operates through Communications and Metal Detection segments.
Full company description
Codan Limited develops technology solutions for United Nations organizations, security and military agencies, government departments, corporates, individuals consumers, and small-scale miners. It operates through Communications and Metal Detection segments. The Communications segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets communication equipment that consists of DTC radio solutions for the wireless transmission of video and other data applications; and Zetron communications solutions. The Metal Detection segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets metal detection equipment, such as handheld metal detecting technologies for recreational, gold mining, demining, and military markets. The company sells its products through a network of dealers, distributors, and agents in Australia, Canada, Denmark, the United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, India, Ireland, Mexico, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally. Codan Limited was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Mawson Lakes, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Codan Limited reported revenue of A$674M in FY2025 versus A$437M in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$103M in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
CDA screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Keysight Technologies, Inc →
Peer Group
Scientific & Technical Instruments · 161 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keysight Technologies, Inc KEYS | $315.90 | $84.16 | -73% |
| Garmin Ltd GRMN | $241.76 | $146.67 | -39% |
| Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY | $635.52 | $367.58 | -42% |
| Chroma ATE Inc 2360 | 1,905 TWD | 286.15 TWD | -85% |
| Hexagon AB HEXAB | kr 80.10 | kr 52.93 | -34% |
| MKS Inc MKSI | $324.69 | $77.46 | -76% |
| AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 | ¥52.91 | ¥34.47 | -35% |
| Fortive Corporation FTV | $61.78 | $33.84 | -45% |
| Trimble Inc TRMB | $52.72 | $24.47 | -54% |
| Cognex Corporation CGNX | $64.07 | $13.75 | -79% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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