Codan Ltd (CDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Codan Ltd stock A$53.80, price A$54.49, that is 1.3% below the price, quality 85 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.48 – A$68.51 · fair‑value band A$33.44 – A$67.26 · the A$54.49 price screens above the A$53.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Codan Limited develops technology solutions for United Nations organizations, security and military agencies, government departments, corporates, individuals consumers, and small-scale miners. It operates through Communications and Metal Detection segments.
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The Communications segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets communication equipment that consists of DTC radio solutions for the wireless transmission of video and other data applications; and Zetron communications solutions.
The Metal Detection segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets metal detection equipment, such as handheld metal detecting technologies for recreational, gold mining, demining, and military markets.
The company sells its products through a network of dealers, distributors, and agents in Australia, Canada, Denmark, the United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, India, Ireland, Mexico, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally.
Codan Limited was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Mawson Lakes, Australia.
Stock analysis
Codan Ltd (CDA) currently trades at A$54.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$53.80, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$31.27 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$54.49 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$10.37, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$33.44 (bear) to A$67.26 (bull), the price of A$54.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Codan Ltd reported revenue of A$875M in FY2026 versus A$506M in FY2022, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$175M in FY2026, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$10.0B (≈ $6.8B) Mid · P/E ratio 56.8 · P/S ratio 11.4 · EPS (TTM) A$0.9587 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 30.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 87 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −1%, CDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$33.44Fair Value A$53.80BullA$67.26
Price A$54.49 · Downside -1.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2171 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.0% vs 27.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 28%
2026 sits 114% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.6% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong demand for high-margin communications technology in unmanned systems from conflict regions forms the main strength, while thin evidence and insufficient trend data leave durable moat conclusions unsupported.
Main risk: Sustained high demand for its drone communications from conflict regions could normalise, reducing revenue and margins in the Communications segment.
Bull case: By diversifying into sovereign defence programmes and acquiring anti-jamming technology, Codan could sustain growth in unmanned communications even if conflict demand moderates.
Bear case: If demand from conflict regions normalises without offsetting growth elsewhere, the Communications segment could see sharply lower revenue and margins as order visibility remains limited.
Codan has seen exceptionally strong demand for its communications technology in unmanned systems from conflict regions, now expected to drive half of segment revenue in the first half with much higher margins. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued given low order visibility there. Will the shift toward drone warfare deliver lasting growth to the core business, or will it prove largely temporary?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 161 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Codan Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CDA
Frequently asked questions
Is Codan Ltd (CDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$53.80 versus a price of A$54.49, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CDA?
Our model-based fair value for Codan Ltd is A$53.80 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$54.49.
What is the quality score of CDA?
Codan Ltd has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$53.80 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$33.44, optimistic scenario A$67.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Codan Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$53.80, about 1% lower versus a price of A$54.49 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$33.44, optimistic scenario A$67.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Codan Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$875M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Codan Ltd pay a dividend?
Codan Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Codan Ltd (CDA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Codan Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.355 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 37.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.72 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Codan Ltd (CDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Codan Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +24.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CDA use?
Our models discount Codan Ltd at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Codan Ltd that is +24.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Codan Ltd (CDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Codan Ltd grew +14.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +24.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Codan Ltd (CDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Codan Ltd (+24.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.42 %: that much free cash flow Codan Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Codan Ltd it is A$53.80 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$54.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Codan Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CDA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$54.49, fair value A$53.80, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$54.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$53.80). For Codan Ltd the two are A$0.6900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Codan Ltd worth?
The market values Codan Ltd at about A$10.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$54.49; our models calculate a fair value of A$53.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CDA?
Our models span a range for Codan Ltd: cautious scenario A$33.44, base A$53.80, optimistic A$67.26 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$54.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CDA?
Codan Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$53.80 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 20.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 16.4, P/S 11.4, EV/EBITDA 39.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CDA?
The PEG ratio of Codan Ltd is 1.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Codan Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 30.9%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CDA from its 52-week high?
Codan Ltd trades at A$54.49, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$68.51 and 103% above the low of A$26.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$53.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Codan Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Coherent Corp, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Codan Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$54.49, calculated fair value A$53.80 (−1%), Quality Score 85/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CDA calculated?
We run Codan Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$53.80 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Codan Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$54.49. Our model-based fair value is A$53.80, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Codan Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$33.44 to A$67.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Codan Ltd (CDA) come from?
Earnings per share at Codan Ltd grew +19.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Codan Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The market capitalisation of Codan Ltd is A$10.0B (≈ $6.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Codan Ltd is 11.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Earnings per share at Codan Ltd are A$0.9587 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The dividend yield of Codan Ltd is 0.7% (payout 37.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The net margin of Codan Ltd is 20.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Codan Ltd is 30.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Codan Ltd is 17.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Codan Ltd (CDA)?
The operating margin of Codan Ltd is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Revenue at Codan Ltd is growing +30.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Codan Ltd (CDA)?
Earnings per share at Codan Ltd are growing +80.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Codan Ltd (CDA) carry?
The net debt of Codan Ltd is A$6.7M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026