Ceconomy AG (CEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Ceconomy AG €4.77, price €4.10, upside +16.4%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.12 – €4.59 · fair‑value band €3.21 – €6.35 · the €4.10 price screens below the €4.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Ceconomy AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the consumer electronics retail business. It operates stores under the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands. The company offers professional assistance for the installation, connection, and troubleshooting of electronic devices at home under the Deutsche Technikberatung brand.
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Ceconomy AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the consumer electronics retail business. It operates stores under the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands. The company offers professional assistance for the installation, connection, and troubleshooting of electronic devices at home under the Deutsche Technikberatung brand. It operates in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Hungary; Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Spain; and Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe. The company was formerly known as METRO AG. Ceconomy AG was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
Ceconomy AG (CEC) currently trades at €4.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.77, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €15.84 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the €4.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.6700, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €3.21 (bear) to €6.35 (bull), the price of €4.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ceconomy AG reported revenue of €23.1B in FY2025 versus €21.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€35.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €2.0B · P/E ratio 384.5 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) €−0.1200 · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin −0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 16%, CEC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.21Fair Value €4.77Bull €6.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.2% (2020) → 1.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−26.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −28.4% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 220 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+16.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)384.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.65× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ceconomy AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEC
Frequently asked questions
Is Ceconomy AG (CEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.77 versus a price of €4.10, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CEC?
Our model-based fair value for Ceconomy AG is €4.77 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.10.
What is the quality score of CEC?
Ceconomy AG has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.77 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.21, optimistic scenario €6.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ceconomy AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.77, about +16% upside versus a price of €4.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €3.21, optimistic scenario €6.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Ceconomy AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €23.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ceconomy AG would have to grow free cash flow by -26.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CEC use?
Our models discount Ceconomy AG at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.67, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ceconomy AG that is -26.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ceconomy AG (CEC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ceconomy AG grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies -26.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ceconomy AG (CEC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ceconomy AG (-26.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.63 %: that much free cash flow Ceconomy AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ceconomy AG it is €4.77 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €4.10. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ceconomy AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CEC trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.10, fair value €4.77, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.77). For Ceconomy AG the two are €0.6740 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ceconomy AG worth?
The market values Ceconomy AG at about €2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €4.10; our models calculate a fair value of €4.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEC?
Our models span a range for Ceconomy AG: cautious scenario €3.21, base €4.77, optimistic €6.35 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €4.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CEC?
Ceconomy AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 384.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 4.7, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CEC?
The PEG ratio of Ceconomy AG is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ceconomy AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −9.2%, debt of 1.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEC from its 52-week high?
Ceconomy AG trades at €4.10, about 11% below its 52-week high of €4.59 and 14% above the low of €3.60 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ceconomy AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ceconomy AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €4.10, calculated fair value €4.77 (+16%), Quality Score 44/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEC calculated?
We run Ceconomy AG through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ceconomy AG currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was €4.10. Our model-based fair value is €4.77, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ceconomy AG right now?
A fairly wide model range (€3.21 to €6.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Ceconomy AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The market capitalisation of Ceconomy AG is €2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ceconomy AG is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Earnings per share at Ceconomy AG are €−0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 384.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The net margin of Ceconomy AG is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ceconomy AG is −9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ceconomy AG is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The operating margin of Ceconomy AG is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Revenue at Ceconomy AG is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Earnings per share at Ceconomy AG are growing +24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ceconomy AG (CEC) carry?
The net debt of Ceconomy AG is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026