Ceconomy AG (CEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ceconomy AG stock €4.77, price €4.64, upside +2.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.12 – €4.64 · fair‑value band €3.21 – €6.35 · the €4.64 price screens below the €4.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Ceconomy AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the consumer electronics retail business. It operates stores under the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands.
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The company offers professional assistance for the installation, connection, and troubleshooting of electronic devices at home under the Deutsche Technikberatung brand.
It operates in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Hungary; Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Spain; and Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe. The company was formerly known as METRO AG. Ceconomy AG was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
Ceconomy AG (CEC) currently trades at €4.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.77, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €17.88 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the €4.64 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €5.61, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €3.21 (bear) to €6.35 (bull), the price of €4.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ceconomy AG reported revenue of €23.1B in FY2025 versus €21.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€35.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €2.2B Mid · P/S ratio 0.09 · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.5% · Revenue (TTM) €23.8B · Revenue growth (YoY) +9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 3%, CEC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.21Fair Value €4.77Bull€6.35
Price €4.64 · Upside +2.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€14.61€18.75€25.6881
Growth DCF€15.05€18.97€25.0480
Owner Earnings€13.28€17.00€23.2677
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€14.61€18.75€25.6881
Owner Earnings€13.28€17.00€23.2677
5Y Revenue Exit€9.95€12.52€16.2374
5Y EBITDA Exit€15.69€22.44€31.3975
10Y Revenue Exit€11.81€13.79€15.7668
10Y EBITDA Exit€15.12€19.39€23.8870
Earnings-Based
EPV€5.05€5.61€6.0774
Multiples
EV/EBIT€5.83€8.68€11.5465
EV/EBITDA€15.38€21.42€27.4667
EV/Revenue€3.04€5.51€7.9952
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€15.05€18.97€25.0480
Rev-Margin DCF€9.95€12.88€16.6374
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder€5.05€5.61€6.0772
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.2% (2020) → 1.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −26.4% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (61 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 215 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+2.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.50× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ceconomy AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEC
Frequently asked questions
Is Ceconomy AG (CEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.77 versus a price of €4.64, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CEC?
Our model-based fair value for Ceconomy AG is €4.77 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.64.
What is the quality score of CEC?
Ceconomy AG has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.77 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.21, optimistic scenario €6.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ceconomy AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.77, about +3% upside versus a price of €4.64 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €3.21, optimistic scenario €6.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Ceconomy AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €23.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ceconomy AG would have to grow free cash flow by -24.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CEC use?
Our models discount Ceconomy AG at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.63, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ceconomy AG that is -24.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ceconomy AG (CEC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ceconomy AG grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -24.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ceconomy AG (CEC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ceconomy AG (-24.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.50 %: that much free cash flow Ceconomy AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ceconomy AG it is €4.77 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of €4.64. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ceconomy AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, CEC trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.64, fair value €4.77, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.77). For Ceconomy AG the two are €0.1340 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ceconomy AG worth?
The market values Ceconomy AG at about €2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is €4.64; our models calculate a fair value of €4.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEC?
Our models span a range for Ceconomy AG: cautious scenario €3.21, base €4.77, optimistic €6.35 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price €4.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CEC?
The PEG ratio of Ceconomy AG is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ceconomy AG (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 1.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEC from its 52-week high?
Ceconomy AG trades at €4.64, at its 52-week high of €4.64 and 29% above the low of €3.60 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ceconomy AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ceconomy AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price €4.64, calculated fair value €4.77 (+3%), Quality Score 50/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEC calculated?
We run Ceconomy AG through 13 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €4.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ceconomy AG currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €4.64. Our model-based fair value is €4.77, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ceconomy AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€3.21 to €6.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ceconomy AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The market capitalisation of Ceconomy AG is €2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ceconomy AG is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The net margin of Ceconomy AG is −0.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ceconomy AG is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ceconomy AG is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
The operating margin of Ceconomy AG is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Revenue at Ceconomy AG is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ceconomy AG (CEC)?
Earnings per share at Ceconomy AG are growing +24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ceconomy AG (CEC) carry?
The net debt of Ceconomy AG is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 11, 2026