Caltagirone Editore (CED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Caltagirone Editore is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value €0.2800 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −3.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Caltagirone Editore for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.8295 – €2.75 · fair‑value band €0.2600 – €0.3000 · the €2.66 price screens above the €0.2800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Caltagirone Editore SpA publishes newspapers in Italy. The company publishes Il Messaggero, Il Mattino, Il Gazzettino, Corriere Adriatico, and Il Nuovo Quotidiano di Puglia newspapers. It also operates Piemme, an advertising agency comprising daily newspapers; social press, a social platform; and online news websites. The company is based in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Caltagirone Editore (CED) currently trades at €2.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.2800, implying the stock looks roughly 849.7% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €0.4300 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the €2.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.0500, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €0.2600 (bear) to €0.3000 (bull), the price of €2.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Caltagirone Editore reported revenue of €98.5M in FY2025 versus €115M in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was €626K in FY2025, compounding −61.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €284M · P/E ratio 26.6 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) €0.1000 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −89%, CED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.0500 to €4.30). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €0.2600Fair Value €0.2800Bull €0.3000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0070 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−51.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−53.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → −28%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Publishing · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.6× · Pricier than median
P/B0.50× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.43× · Priciest 25%
PEG110.58× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Caltagirone Editore Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CED
Frequently asked questions
Is Caltagirone Editore (CED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.2800 versus a price of €2.66, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CED?
Our model-based fair value for Caltagirone Editore is €0.2800 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.66.
What is the quality score of CED?
Caltagirone Editore has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.2800 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.2600, optimistic scenario €0.3000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Caltagirone Editore stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.2800, about −89% upside versus a price of €2.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.2600, optimistic scenario €0.3000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Caltagirone Editore reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €102M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Caltagirone Editore pay a dividend?
Caltagirone Editore currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Caltagirone Editore it is €0.2800 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €2.66. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Caltagirone Editore stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CED trades above its calculated fair value: price €2.66, fair value €0.2800, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.2800). For Caltagirone Editore the two are €2.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Caltagirone Editore worth?
The market values Caltagirone Editore at about €284M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €2.66; our models calculate a fair value of €0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CED?
Our models span a range for Caltagirone Editore: cautious scenario €0.2600, base €0.2800, optimistic €0.3000 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price €2.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CED?
Caltagirone Editore trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.2800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 110.6, P/B 0.5, P/S 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of CED?
The PEG ratio of Caltagirone Editore is 110.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Caltagirone Editore (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CED from its 52-week high?
Caltagirone Editore trades at €2.66, about 4% below its 52-week high of €2.57 and 78% above the low of €1.50 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.2800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Caltagirone Editore?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The New York Times Company, Pearson plc, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation, China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Caltagirone Editore stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €2.66, calculated fair value €0.2800 (−89%), Quality Score 37/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CED calculated?
We run Caltagirone Editore through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Caltagirone Editore itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Caltagirone Editore right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.3000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Caltagirone Editore
How large is the market capitalisation of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The market capitalisation of Caltagirone Editore is €284M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Caltagirone Editore is 0.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Earnings per share at Caltagirone Editore are €0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The dividend yield of Caltagirone Editore is 1.7% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The net margin of Caltagirone Editore is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Caltagirone Editore is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Caltagirone Editore is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The operating margin of Caltagirone Editore is −14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Revenue at Caltagirone Editore is growing −6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Earnings per share at Caltagirone Editore are growing +72.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Caltagirone Editore (CED) generate?
The free cash flow of Caltagirone Editore is −€3.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Caltagirone Editore (CED) carry?
The net debt of Caltagirone Editore is €23.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Caltagirone Editore in the live analysis
One click puts Caltagirone Editore on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
