Caltagirone Editore (CED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Caltagirone Editore stock €0.31, price €2.51, upside -87.6%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.8377 – €2.75 · fair‑value band €0.2900 – €0.3400 · the €2.51 price screens above the €0.3100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Caltagirone Editore SpA publishes newspapers in Italy. The company publishes Il Messaggero, Il Mattino, Il Gazzettino, Corriere Adriatico, and Il Nuovo Quotidiano di Puglia newspapers.
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It also operates Piemme, an advertising agency comprising daily newspapers; social press, a social platform; and online news websites. The company is based in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Caltagirone Editore (CED) currently trades at €2.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.3100, 87.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €0.6300 per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the €2.51 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.0500, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €0.2900 (bear) to €0.3400 (bull), the price of €2.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Caltagirone Editore reported revenue of €98.5M in FY2025 versus €115M in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was €626K in FY2025, compounding −61.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €268M Micro · P/E ratio 25.1 · P/S ratio 2.71 · EPS (TTM) €0.1000 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −88%, CED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.0500 to €20.49). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear€0.2900Fair Value €0.3100Bull€0.3400
Price €2.51 · Upside -87.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0827 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−51.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−53.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → −28%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Publishing · 96 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−87.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−14.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.1× · Pricier than median
P/B0.39× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.71× · Priciest 25%
PEG110.58× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Caltagirone Editore Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CED
Frequently asked questions
Is Caltagirone Editore (CED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.3100 versus a price of €2.51, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CED?
Our model-based fair value for Caltagirone Editore is €0.3100 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.51.
What is the quality score of CED?
Caltagirone Editore has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.3100 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.2900, optimistic scenario €0.3400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Caltagirone Editore stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.3100, about −88% upside versus a price of €2.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.2900, optimistic scenario €0.3400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Caltagirone Editore reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €99.0M (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Caltagirone Editore pay a dividend?
Caltagirone Editore currently shows a dividend yield of 1.56% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Caltagirone Editore it is €0.3100 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €2.51. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Caltagirone Editore stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, CED trades above its calculated fair value: price €2.51, fair value €0.3100, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.3100). For Caltagirone Editore the two are €2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Caltagirone Editore worth?
The market values Caltagirone Editore at about €268M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €2.51; our models calculate a fair value of €0.3100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CED?
Our models span a range for Caltagirone Editore: cautious scenario €0.2900, base €0.3100, optimistic €0.3400 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €2.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CED?
Caltagirone Editore trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.1 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.3100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 110.6, P/B 0.4, P/S 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CED?
The PEG ratio of Caltagirone Editore is 110.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Caltagirone Editore (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 1.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CED from its 52-week high?
Caltagirone Editore trades at €2.51, about 9% below its 52-week high of €2.75 and 53% above the low of €1.64 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.3100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Caltagirone Editore?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The New York Times Company, Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation, China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Caltagirone Editore stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €2.51, calculated fair value €0.3100 (−88%), Quality Score 36/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CED calculated?
We run Caltagirone Editore through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.3100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Caltagirone Editore itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was €2.51. Our model-based fair value is €0.3100, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Caltagirone Editore right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Caltagirone Editore
How large is the market capitalisation of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The market capitalisation of Caltagirone Editore is €268M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Caltagirone Editore is 2.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Earnings per share at Caltagirone Editore are €0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The dividend yield of Caltagirone Editore is 1.6% (payout 39.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The net margin of Caltagirone Editore is 10.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Caltagirone Editore is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Caltagirone Editore is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
The operating margin of Caltagirone Editore is −14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Revenue at Caltagirone Editore is growing −6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Caltagirone Editore (CED)?
Earnings per share at Caltagirone Editore are growing +72.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Caltagirone Editore (CED) generate?
The free cash flow of Caltagirone Editore is −€3.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Caltagirone Editore (CED) carry?
The net debt of Caltagirone Editore is €23.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 27, 2026