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Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS TRY 3.07, price TRY 25.80, upside -88.1%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · TR · ISIN TRACELHA91G1

CH Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS

CELHA · IS

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 3.07 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 18/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +39.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -33.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

29.50 TRY 1.06 TRY Fair Value 3.07 TRY Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.06 TRY – 29.50 TRY · fair‑value band 2.86 TRY – 3.25 TRY · the 25.80 TRY price screens above the 3.07 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Çelik Halat ve Tel Sanayii A.S. provides steel wire ropes and wires in Turkey and internationally.

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Çelik Halat ve Tel Sanayii A.S. provides steel wire ropes and wires in Turkey and internationally. The company offers steel wire ropes, such as general-purpose ropes; crane ropes comprising plastic-coated core wire ropes, rotation-resistant wire ropes, and non-rotation-resistant wire ropes; marine ropes; mining ropes; elevator ropes, including pre-stretched elevator wire ropes; fishery ropes; forestry ropes, such as swaged wire ropes; and oil and gas ropes for the construction, maritime, fishing, oil, and mining industries, as well as for use in elevators, chair lifts, and cranes. It also provides industrial steel, industrial galvanized steel, and patented wires for the automotive, white goods, agriculture, defense, furniture, and construction industries; single and multi-strand ropes; and mechanical and galvanized mechanical spring wires. In addition, the company offers pre-stressed concrete strands for pre-stressed and post-tensioned and post-tensioned bridge beam manufacturing, prefabricated building elements, ground and mine anchors, nuclear power plants, silo construction, and residential and commercial building construction applications; and ACSR wires and strands. It also serves the port, marine, forestry, energy and sustainable energy, building, cable car, rubber, and other manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1962 and is based in Kartepe, Turkey. Çelik Halat ve Tel Sanayii A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Artas Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.

Stock analysis

Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA) currently trades at 25.80 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.07 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 740.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 17.11 TRY per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 25.80 TRY price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.5800 TRY, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 2.86 TRY (bear) to 3.25 TRY (bull), the price of 25.80 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS reported revenue of 1.6B TRL in FY2024 versus 331M TRL in FY2020, a compound +48.7%/yr. Reported net income was −128M TRL in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap 9.9B TRY (≈ $202M) · P/S ratio 4.62 · EPS (TTM) −0.8300 TRY · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin −16.9% · Revenue (TTM) 2.1B TRY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 210% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −88%, CELHA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.5800 TRY to 17.11 TRY). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 2.86 TRY Fair Value 3.07 TRY Bull 3.25 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 9.73 TRY 15.62 TRY 32.56 TRY 76
Growth DCF 9.23 TRY 17.11 TRY 31.88 TRY 75
5Y Revenue Exit 3.14 TRY 4.02 TRY 5.52 TRY 73
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 9.73 TRY 15.62 TRY 32.56 TRY 76
5Y Revenue Exit 3.14 TRY 4.02 TRY 5.52 TRY 73
10Y Revenue Exit 5.10 TRY 7.34 TRY 8.85 TRY 68
Multiples
EV/Revenue 0.4400 TRY 0.5800 TRY 0.7200 TRY 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.96 TRY 5.30 TRY 7.91 TRY 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 9.23 TRY 17.11 TRY 31.88 TRY 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 27
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 7
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.0%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.5% (2019) → −13.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+79.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +50.4% a year for the price.

CELHA screens 740% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 261 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −34% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −17% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.07× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 14.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 0.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)3 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS · Fair Value
3.07 TRY −740%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CELHA

Frequently asked questions

Is Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.07 TRY versus a price of 25.80 TRY, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CELHA?
Our model-based fair value for Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is 3.07 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25.80 TRY.
What is the quality score of CELHA?
Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.07 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.86 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.25 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.07 TRY, about −88% upside versus a price of 25.80 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.86 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.25 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +79.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +39.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CELHA use?
Our models discount Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS at 16.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS that is +79.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS grew +39.0 % a year. The price currently implies +79.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (+79.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.53 %: that much free cash flow Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS it is 3.07 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 25.80 TRY. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CELHA trades above its calculated fair value: price 25.80 TRY, fair value 3.07 TRY, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CELHA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25.80 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.07 TRY). For Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS the two are 22.73 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS at about 9.9B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 25.80 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 3.07 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CELHA?
Our models span a range for Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 2.86 TRY, base 3.07 TRY, optimistic 3.25 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 25.80 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −18.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CELHA from its 52-week high?
Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS trades at 25.80 TRY, about 7% below its 52-week high of 27.82 TRY and 210% above the low of 8.32 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.07 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 25.80 TRY, calculated fair value 3.07 TRY (−88%), Quality Score 18/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CELHA calculated?
We run Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.07 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 25.80 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 3.07 TRY, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.25 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (2.86 TRY to 3.25 TRY), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS

How large is the market capitalisation of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The market capitalisation of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is 9.9B TRY (≈ $202M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is 4.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Earnings per share at Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS are −0.8300 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The net margin of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is −7.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is −18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
The operating margin of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is −16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Revenue at Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA)?
Earnings per share at Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS are growing −83.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS (CELHA) carry?
The net debt of Celik Halat ve Tel Sanayi AS is 381M TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 27.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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