Cogstate Ltd (CGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cogstate Ltd stock A$3.70, price A$3.36, upside +10.0%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.8406 – A$3.80 · fair‑value band A$2.33 – A$5.32 · the A$3.36 price screens below the A$3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Cogstate Limited, a neuroscience solutions company, engages in the creation, validation, and commercialization of digital brain health assessments worldwide.
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It offers digital cognitive assessment, endpoint data quality (rater services), remote assessment, scientific consulting, healthcare cognitive screening, and research and academic collaboration solutions for various therapeutic areas, including Alzheimer's disease and dementia, preclinical Alzheimer's disease, pediatrics and rare disease, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, schizophrenia, oncology, safety, and sleep and mood disorders.
The company also designs and provides quality assurance services in clinical trials focused on the administration, scoring, and recording of conventional brain health assessments. In addition, it develops a tool for primary care physicians and/or hospitals to assess cognitive decline.
Its technology and associated services are used to quantify the effect of disease and drugs, devices, or other interventions on human subjects participating in clinical trials primarily conducted by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, physicians, and patients. Cogstate Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Cogstate Ltd (CGS) currently trades at A$3.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.70, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$2.57 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$3.36 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.08, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$2.33 (bear) to A$5.32 (bull), the price of A$3.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cogstate Ltd reported revenue of $59.9M in FY2026 versus $45.0M in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was $12.2M in FY2026, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$596M (≈ $411M) Small · P/E ratio 33.6 · P/S ratio 6.82 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1000 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 10%, CGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.33Fair Value A$3.70BullA$5.32
Price A$3.36 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0253 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.1% vs 11.8%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 21%
2026 sits 226% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.0% a year for the price and +21.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.6× · Pricier than median
P/B7.06× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.75× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)44.9× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cogstate Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGS
Frequently asked questions
Is Cogstate Ltd (CGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.70 versus a price of A$3.36, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CGS?
Our model-based fair value for Cogstate Ltd is A$3.70 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.36.
What is the quality score of CGS?
Cogstate Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.70 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.33, optimistic scenario A$5.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cogstate Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.70, about +10% upside versus a price of A$3.36 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$2.33, optimistic scenario A$5.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Cogstate Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $60.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Cogstate Ltd pay a dividend?
Cogstate Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cogstate Ltd (CGS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cogstate Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.03 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. The payout ratio is 18.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.99 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cogstate Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +22.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGS use?
Our models discount Cogstate Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cogstate Ltd that is +22.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cogstate Ltd (CGS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cogstate Ltd grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +22.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cogstate Ltd (CGS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cogstate Ltd (+22.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow Cogstate Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cogstate Ltd it is A$3.70 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$3.36. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cogstate Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, CGS trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.36, fair value A$3.70, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.70). For Cogstate Ltd the two are A$0.3360 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cogstate Ltd worth?
The market values Cogstate Ltd at about A$596M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$3.36; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGS?
Our models span a range for Cogstate Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.33, base A$3.70, optimistic A$5.32 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$3.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGS?
Cogstate Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.6 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.1, P/S 6.8, EV/EBITDA 25.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cogstate Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 22.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGS from its 52-week high?
Cogstate Ltd trades at A$3.36, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$3.80 and 63% above the low of A$2.06 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cogstate Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, Hinge Health, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cogstate Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$3.36, calculated fair value A$3.70 (+10%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGS calculated?
We run Cogstate Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$3.70 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Cogstate Ltd currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$3.36. Our model-based fair value is A$3.70, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cogstate Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$2.33 to A$5.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Cogstate Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The market capitalisation of Cogstate Ltd is A$596M (≈ $411M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cogstate Ltd is 6.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Earnings per share at Cogstate Ltd are A$0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The dividend yield of Cogstate Ltd is 0.9% (payout 30.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The net margin of Cogstate Ltd is 20.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cogstate Ltd is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cogstate Ltd is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
The operating margin of Cogstate Ltd is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Revenue at Cogstate Ltd is growing +16.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cogstate Ltd (CGS)?
Earnings per share at Cogstate Ltd are growing +15.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cogstate Ltd (CGS) hold?
Cogstate Ltd holds more cash than debt, $34.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026