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Cineplex Inc. (CGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cineplex Inc. C$36.75, price C$12.25, upside +200.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · CA · ISIN CA1724541000

CI Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Cineplex Inc.

CGX · TO

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value C$36.75 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +25.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/10)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range C$19.14 to C$71.21
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$16.03 C$7.12 Fair Value C$36.75 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$7.12 – C$16.03 · fair‑value band C$19.14 – C$71.21 · the C$12.25 price screens below the C$36.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Cineplex Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment and media company in Canada and internationally. It operates through three segments: Film Entertainment and Content, Media, and Location-Based Entertainment.

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Cineplex Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment and media company in Canada and internationally. It operates through three segments: Film Entertainment and Content, Media, and Location-Based Entertainment. The company engages in theatre exhibitions; provision of food service; and alternative programming service comprising international film programming, as well as content offered under the Event Cinema brand, including The Metropolitan Opera, sporting events, concerts, and dedicated event screens. It also operates cineplex.com, a website and the Cineplex mobile app that offers movie information, showtimes and ability to buy tickets online, entertainment news, and box office reports, as well as advertising and digital commerce solutions; movie-related entertainment content; mobile food; and beverage ordering services. In addition, it incorporates advertising mediums related to theatre exhibition; and offers digital signage solutions. Further, the company operates location-based entertainment establishments, including The Rec Room, a social entertainment destination that offers a range of entertainment options, such as simulation, redemption, video, recreational gaming, attractions, and a live entertainment venue for watching entertainment programming; Playdium, a complex designed for families and teens; and Cineplex Junxion, an entertainment concept for movies, amusement gaming, dining, and live performances, as well as in-theatre gaming centers. Additionally, it offers Scene+, a customer loyalty program designed to offer members discounts and the opportunity to earn and redeem points. Cineplex Inc. was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

Cineplex Inc. (CGX) currently trades at C$12.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$36.75, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$58.51 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$12.25 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$7.63, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: C$19.14 (bear) to C$71.21 (bull), the price of C$12.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Cineplex Inc. reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$657M in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$37.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$778M (≈ $551M) · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.3800 · Net margin −2.9% · Return on equity −1,617% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 3.3% · Revenue (TTM) C$1.3B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 200%, CGX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$19.14 Fair Value C$36.75 Bull C$71.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$37.49 C$59.15 C$123.88 76
Growth DCF C$34.51 C$63.62 C$117.17 75
Owner Earnings C$30.88 C$74.31 C$154.90 71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$37.49 C$59.15 C$123.88 76
Owner Earnings C$30.88 C$74.31 C$154.90 71
5Y Revenue Exit C$15.54 C$28.42 C$54.92 69
5Y EBITDA Exit C$30.44 C$58.51 C$113.43 71
10Y Revenue Exit C$22.57 C$48.13 C$60.56 66
10Y EBITDA Exit C$33.03 C$77.39 C$152.35 64
Earnings-Based
EPV C$1.11 C$2.58 C$3.80 69
Multiples
EV/EBIT C$8.27 C$14.22 C$20.18 64
EV/EBITDA C$26.49 C$38.53 C$50.56 67
EV/Revenue C$3.94 C$9.76 C$15.57 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$34.51 C$63.62 C$117.17 75
Rev-Margin DCF C$15.55 C$33.95 C$68.10 68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$2.91 C$7.63 C$10.79 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 58
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−75.3% (2020) → 7.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.5%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 260 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.43× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 7.56× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)78 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Netflix, Inc NFLX $72.16 $79.38 +10%
The Walt Disney Company DIS $103.82 $100.87 −3%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD $30.83 $13.47 −56%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV $169.84 $64.71 −62%
Universal Music Group UMG €14.55 €16.00 +10%
TKO Group TKO $188.87 $95.50 −49%
Formula One Group FWONK $94.62 $104.08 +10%
Fox Corporation FOXA $64.25 $89.49 +39%
Roku, Inc ROKU $154.25 $42.88 −72%
News Corporation NWS A$45.40 A$29.85 −34%

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Cineplex Inc. · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cineplex Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGX

Frequently asked questions

Is Cineplex Inc. (CGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$36.75 versus a price of C$12.25, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CGX?
Our model-based fair value for Cineplex Inc. is C$36.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$12.25.
What is the quality score of CGX?
Cineplex Inc. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$36.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$19.14, optimistic scenario C$71.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cineplex Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$36.75, about +200% upside versus a price of C$12.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$19.14, optimistic scenario C$71.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Cineplex Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cineplex Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGX use?
Our models discount Cineplex Inc. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cineplex Inc. that is +6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cineplex Inc. (CGX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cineplex Inc. grew +25.2 % a year. The price currently implies +6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cineplex Inc. (CGX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cineplex Inc. (+6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.86 %: that much free cash flow Cineplex Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cineplex Inc. it is C$36.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$12.25. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cineplex Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CGX trades below its calculated fair value: price C$12.25, fair value C$36.75, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$12.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$36.75). For Cineplex Inc. the two are C$24.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cineplex Inc. worth?
The market values Cineplex Inc. at about C$778M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$12.25; our models calculate a fair value of C$36.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGX?
Our models span a range for Cineplex Inc.: cautious scenario C$19.14, base C$36.75, optimistic C$71.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$12.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CGX?
The PEG ratio of Cineplex Inc. is 7.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cineplex Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGX from its 52-week high?
Cineplex Inc. trades at C$12.25, about 6% below its 52-week high of C$12.98 and 33% above the low of C$9.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$36.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cineplex Inc.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cineplex Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$12.25, calculated fair value C$36.75 (+200%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGX calculated?
We run Cineplex Inc. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$36.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cineplex Inc. currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$12.25. Our model-based fair value is C$36.75, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cineplex Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$19.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (C$19.14 to C$71.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Cineplex Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The market capitalisation of Cineplex Inc. is C$778M (≈ $551M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cineplex Inc. is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Earnings per share at Cineplex Inc. are C$−0.3800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The net margin of Cineplex Inc. is −2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cineplex Inc. is −1,617% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cineplex Inc. is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The operating margin of Cineplex Inc. is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Revenue at Cineplex Inc. is growing +15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Earnings per share at Cineplex Inc. are growing −87.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cineplex Inc. (CGX) carry?
The net debt of Cineplex Inc. is C$1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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