Cineplex Inc. (CGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cineplex Inc. stock C$12.18, price C$12.99, that is 6.2% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$7.12 – C$15.18 · fair‑value band C$5.52 – C$18.85 · the C$12.99 price screens above the C$12.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Cineplex Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment and media company in Canada and internationally. It operates through three segments: Film Entertainment and Content, Media, and Location-Based Entertainment.
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The company engages in theatre exhibitions; provision of food service; and alternative programming service comprising international film programming, as well as content offered under the Event Cinema brand, including The Metropolitan Opera, sporting events, concerts, and dedicated event screens.
It also operates cineplex.com, a website and the Cineplex mobile app that offers movie information, showtimes and ability to buy tickets online, entertainment news, and box office reports, as well as advertising and digital commerce solutions; movie-related entertainment content; mobile food; and beverage ordering services.
In addition, it incorporates advertising mediums related to theatre exhibition; and offers digital signage solutions.
Further, the company operates location-based entertainment establishments, including The Rec Room, a social entertainment destination that offers a range of entertainment options, such as simulation, redemption, video, recreational gaming, attractions, and a live entertainment venue for watching entertainment programming; Playdium, a complex designed for families and teens; and Cineplex Junxion, an entertainment concept for movies, amusement gaming, dining, and live performances, as well as in-theatre gaming centers.
Additionally, it offers Scene+, a customer loyalty program designed to offer members discounts and the opportunity to earn and redeem points. Cineplex Inc. was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Cineplex Inc. (CGX) currently trades at C$12.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$12.18, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$39.08 per share, and 9 of the 11 models we run sit above the C$12.99 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$3.41, and 2 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$5.52 (bear) to C$18.85 (bull), the price of C$12.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cineplex Inc. reported revenue of C$1.3B in FY2025 versus C$657M in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$37.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$823M (≈ $589M) Small · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.2600 · Net margin −1.0% · Return on equity −1,617% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 12.3% · Revenue (TTM) C$1.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −6%, CGX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$5.52Fair Value C$12.18BullC$18.85
Price C$12.99 · Downside -6.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFC$25.95C$44.48C$70.8479
Growth DCFC$26.13C$42.03C$63.0978
Owner EarningsC$22.39C$39.08C$62.8275
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$25.95C$44.48C$70.8479
Owner EarningsC$22.39C$39.08C$62.8275
5Y Revenue ExitC$11.88C$20.99C$32.1871
5Y EBITDA ExitC$23.95C$43.98C$67.4374
10Y Revenue ExitC$16.65C$26.11C$38.2666
10Y EBITDA ExitC$24.33C$41.31C$64.0567
Earnings-Based
EPVC$1.75C$3.41C$4.8271
Multiples
EV/EBITn/an/aC$3.6761
EV/EBITDAC$10.03C$22.15C$34.2863
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$26.13C$42.03C$63.0978
Rev-Margin DCFC$11.88C$21.43C$32.8571
Economic Profit
ROIC CompounderC$2.38C$5.31C$8.7568
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−75.3% (2020) → 7.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.2% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−6.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.61× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow8.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG7.56× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)25· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)49· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cineplex Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGX
Frequently asked questions
Is Cineplex Inc. (CGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$12.18 versus a price of C$12.99, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CGX?
Our model-based fair value for Cineplex Inc. is C$12.18 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$12.99.
What is the quality score of CGX?
Cineplex Inc. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$12.18 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$5.52, optimistic scenario C$18.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cineplex Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$12.18, about 6% lower versus a price of C$12.99 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$5.52, optimistic scenario C$18.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Cineplex Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cineplex Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +6.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGX use?
Our models discount Cineplex Inc. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cineplex Inc. that is +6.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cineplex Inc. (CGX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cineplex Inc. grew +25.2 % a year. The price currently implies +6.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cineplex Inc. (CGX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cineplex Inc. (+6.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.20 %: that much free cash flow Cineplex Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cineplex Inc. it is C$12.18 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of C$12.99. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cineplex Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, CGX trades above its calculated fair value: price C$12.99, fair value C$12.18, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$12.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$12.18). For Cineplex Inc. the two are C$0.8086 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cineplex Inc. worth?
The market values Cineplex Inc. at about C$823M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is C$12.99; our models calculate a fair value of C$12.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGX?
Our models span a range for Cineplex Inc.: cautious scenario C$5.52, base C$12.18, optimistic C$18.85 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price C$12.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CGX?
The PEG ratio of Cineplex Inc. is 7.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cineplex Inc. (as of Nov 1, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGX from its 52-week high?
Cineplex Inc. trades at C$12.99, about 1% below its 52-week high of C$13.14 and 41% above the low of C$9.24 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$12.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cineplex Inc.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, Universal Music Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cineplex Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price C$12.99, calculated fair value C$12.18 (−6%), Quality Score 51/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGX calculated?
We run Cineplex Inc. through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$12.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Cineplex Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was C$12.99. Our model-based fair value is C$12.18, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cineplex Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$5.52 to C$18.85). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Cineplex Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The market capitalisation of Cineplex Inc. is C$823M (≈ $589M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cineplex Inc. is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Earnings per share at Cineplex Inc. are C$−0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The net margin of Cineplex Inc. is −1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cineplex Inc. is −1,617% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cineplex Inc. is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
The operating margin of Cineplex Inc. is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Revenue at Cineplex Inc. is growing +9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cineplex Inc. (CGX)?
Earnings per share at Cineplex Inc. are growing −87.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cineplex Inc. (CGX) carry?
The net debt of Cineplex Inc. is C$1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 1, 2026