Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd stock $22.57, price $21.16, upside +6.7%, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.08 – $32.63 · fair‑value band $15.21 – $33.68 · the $21.16 price screens below the $22.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, sale, importation, and exportation of pharmaceuticals in Japan and internationally.
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It offers oncology products, such as Alecensa, Avastin, FoundationOne, Herceptin, Kadcyla, Lunsumio, Perjeta, Phesgo, Polivy, and Tecentriq; Actemra for humanized anti-human IL-6 receptor monoclonal antibody; CellCept, an immunosuppressant; Enspryng, a pH-dependent binding humanized anti-IL-6 receptor monoclonal antibody; Evrysdi, a spinal muscular atrophy agent; Hemlibra, an anti-coagulation factor IXa/X humanized bispecific monoclonal antibody; Mircera, an erythropoiesis-stimulating agent; PiaSky, a pH-dependent binding humanized anti-complement (C5) monoclonal antibody; Tamiflu, an anti-influenza agent; and Vabysmo, an anti VEGF/anti Ang-2 bispecific antibody.
The company was formerly known as Chugai Shinyaku Shokai and changed its name to Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in January 1943. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Roche Holding AG.
Stock analysis
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) currently trades at $21.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.57, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.19 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $21.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.52, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.21 (bear) to $33.68 (bull), the price of $21.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2025 versus ¥1,000B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥455B in FY2025, compounding +10.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $69.6B Large · P/E ratio 22.8 · P/S ratio 7.85 · EPS (TTM) $0.9300 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 34.5% · Return on equity 23.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 89 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 7%, CHGCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.21Fair Value $22.57Bull$33.68
Price $21.16 · Upside +6.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7542 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.2% vs 23.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.6% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (76 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: High margins and ROE indicate pricing strength, yet other categories lack public signals for durable advantage.
Main risk: Dependence on Roche for development programs risks sudden terminations that could disrupt the pipeline and delay new therapies.
Chugai regained rights to emugrobart after Roche ended the obesity program and is preparing a Phase III study in spinal muscular atrophy while also exploring out-licensing. This shifts an asset back under direct control in a key therapeutic area. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will internal development create more pipeline independence than an external deal?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 72 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)47.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHGCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.57 versus a price of $21.16, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CHGCY?
Our model-based fair value for Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is $22.57 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.16.
What is the quality score of CHGCY?
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.57 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.21, optimistic scenario $33.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.57, about +7% upside versus a price of $21.16 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.21, optimistic scenario $33.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.3T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +12.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHGCY use?
Our models discount Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR that is +12.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +12.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR (+12.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.00 %: that much free cash flow Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR it is $22.57 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $21.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, CHGCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $21.16, fair value $22.57, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHGCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.57). For Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR the two are $1.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR at about $69.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $21.16; our models calculate a fair value of $22.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHGCY?
Our models span a range for Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $15.21, base $22.57, optimistic $33.68 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $21.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHGCY?
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 5.4, P/S 8.1, EV/EBITDA 15.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CHGCY?
The PEG ratio of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 1.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 23.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHGCY from its 52-week high?
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR trades at $21.16, about 35% below its 52-week high of $32.63 and 11% above the low of $19.08 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $21.16, calculated fair value $22.57 (+7%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHGCY calculated?
We run Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $21.16. Our model-based fair value is $22.57, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($15.21 to $33.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR grew +24.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.6 %, EBIT margin +11.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The market capitalisation of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is $69.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 7.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Earnings per share at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR are $0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The dividend yield of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 3.3% (payout 73.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The net margin of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 34.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 25.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
The operating margin of Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is 47.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Revenue at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR is growing +17.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY)?
Earnings per share at Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR are growing +19.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (CHGCY) hold?
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥401B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026