Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited A$0.32, price A$2.90, upside -89.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Energy · AU · Home New Zealand · ISIN NZNZRE0001S9
CIThin dataSep 27, 2026
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited
CHI · AU
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value A$0.3200 · Strongly overvalued (−89.0%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 3y +15.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!4.5% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Trails peers(4/14)
!Moderate moat49/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range A$2.39 – A$2.90 · fair‑value band A$0.2000 – A$0.4000 · the A$2.90 price screens above the A$0.3200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure solutions to meet fuel and energy needs in New Zealand. The company offers fuels import terminal system, including jetty infrastructure at Marsden Point, storage tanks, Marsden Point to Auckland pipeline, and Somerton pipeline, as well as wiri leasing services.
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Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure solutions to meet fuel and energy needs in New Zealand. The company offers fuels import terminal system, including jetty infrastructure at Marsden Point, storage tanks, Marsden Point to Auckland pipeline, and Somerton pipeline, as well as wiri leasing services. It also provides fuel testing laboratory services. The company was formerly known as The New Zealand Refining Company Limited and changed its name to Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited in March 2022. Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited was incorporated in 1961 and is based in Whangarei, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI) currently trades at A$2.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3200, implying the stock looks roughly 806.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$1.29 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$2.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1400, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2000 (bear) to A$0.4000 (bull), the price of A$2.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited reported revenue of 136M NZD in FY2025 versus 88.2M NZD in FY2022, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was 11.8M NZD in FY2025, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.2B (≈ $840M) · P/E ratio 72.5 · P/S ratio 6.27 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0400 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at −89%, CHI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.1400 to A$1.57). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear A$0.2000Fair Value A$0.3200Bull A$0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 33%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.2% a year for the price and +8.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−89.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)8.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)72.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)5.99× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF34.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)90· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3200 versus a price of A$2.90, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHI?
Our model-based fair value for Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is A$0.3200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.90.
What is the quality score of CHI?
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2000, optimistic scenario A$0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3200, about −89% upside versus a price of A$2.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2000, optimistic scenario A$0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$140M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited pay a dividend?
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +32.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +15.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHI use?
Our models discount Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited that is +32.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited grew +15.6 % a year. The price currently implies +32.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (+32.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.03 %: that much free cash flow Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited it is A$0.3200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$2.90. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CHI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.90, fair value A$0.3200, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3200). For Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited the two are A$2.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited worth?
The market values Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited at about A$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$2.90; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHI?
Our models span a range for Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited: cautious scenario A$0.2000, base A$0.3200, optimistic A$0.4000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$2.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHI?
Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 72.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 6.0, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$2.90, calculated fair value A$0.3200 (−89%), Quality Score 40/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHI calculated?
We run Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was A$2.90. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3200, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.4000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.2000 to A$0.4000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The market capitalisation of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is A$1.2B (≈ $840M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is 6.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
Earnings per share at Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited are A$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 72.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The dividend yield of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is 4.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The net margin of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is 4.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI)?
The operating margin of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much net debt does Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited (CHI) carry?
The net debt of Channel Infrastructure Nz Limited is A$332M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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