Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (CHI) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$1.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from A$0.3700 to A$0.3300 (−10.8%) since Jun 26, 2026.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.4200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (7 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
7‑month range A$2.39 – A$2.70 · fair‑value band A$0.2500 – A$0.4200 · the A$2.63 price screens above the A$0.3300 fair value. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (CHI) currently trades at A$2.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3300, implying the stock looks roughly 87.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited generated revenue of A$140M at a net margin of 8.4%. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at A$332M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 65.3. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.2500 (bear case) to A$0.4200 (bull case); at A$2.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -87%, CHI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$1.29) versus Multiples (A$0.3700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure solutions to meet fuel and energy needs in New Zealand. The company offers fuels import terminal system, including jetty infrastructure at Marsden Point, storage tanks, Marsden Point to Auckland pipeline, and Somerton pipeline, as well as wiri leasing services.
Full company description
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure solutions to meet fuel and energy needs in New Zealand. The company offers fuels import terminal system, including jetty infrastructure at Marsden Point, storage tanks, Marsden Point to Auckland pipeline, and Somerton pipeline, as well as wiri leasing services. It also provides fuel testing laboratory services. The company was formerly known as The New Zealand Refining Company Limited and changed its name to Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited in March 2022. Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited was incorporated in 1961 and is based in Whangarei, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited reported revenue of A$136M in FY2025 versus A$88.2M in FY2022, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$11.8M in FY2025, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2022.
CHI screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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