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China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Vanke Co. Ltd $0.55, price $0.35, upside +58.4%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · US · Home China

CV China Vanke Co. Ltd logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

China Vanke Co. Ltd

CHVKF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.5506 · Strongly undervalued (+58.4%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -39.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 7/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 28 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1.87 $0.0008 Fair Value $0.5506 Sep 2016 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0008 – $1.87 · fair‑value band $0.2641 – $0.8762 · the $0.3476 price screens below the $0.5506 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

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China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is involved in the development and sale of residential properties; construction contracts; commercial property operation and asset management; other related services; community residential and consumption services; enterprise and city space services; artificial intelligence; IoT; and business process as a service solution. It also engages in the provision of property services; rental housing; real estate investment and development; hotel and vacation assets; pig farming; logistics and warehousing; and retail property development and operation. The company was incorporated in May 30th, 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Stock analysis

China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF) currently trades at $0.3476, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5506, implying the stock looks roughly 36.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $2.92 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.3476 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.20, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.2641 (bear) to $0.8762 (bull), the price of $0.3476 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China Vanke Co. Ltd reported revenue of 233B CNY in FY2025 versus 453B CNY in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −88.6B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $5.7B · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $−1.09 · Net margin −37.9% · Return on equity −32.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin −1.2% · Revenue (TTM) 224B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 58%, CHVKF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2641 Fair Value $0.5506 Bull $0.8762
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $1.69 $3.38 $5.11 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.69 $2.92 $3.56 67
NCAV (Graham) $0.9000 $1.20 $1.79 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.69 $3.38 $5.11 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.69 $2.92 $3.56 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9000 $1.20 $1.79 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.1% (2020) → −30.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −39.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −23.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.44× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.18× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)28 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$28.64 HK$71.60 +150%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$45.90 HK$71.49 +56%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹658.40 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$9.94 HK$7.28 −27%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.77 ¥5.87 +2%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%

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China Vanke Co. Ltd · Fair Value
$0.5506 +37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Vanke Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHVKF

Frequently asked questions

Is China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5506 versus a price of $0.3476, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHVKF?
Our model-based fair value for China Vanke Co. Ltd is $0.5506 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3476.
What is the quality score of CHVKF?
China Vanke Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5506 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2641, optimistic scenario $0.8762. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Vanke Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5506, about +58% upside versus a price of $0.3476 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.2641, optimistic scenario $0.8762. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
China Vanke Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 224B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Vanke Co. Ltd it is $0.5506 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.3476. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Vanke Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CHVKF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3476, fair value $0.5506, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHVKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3476); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5506). For China Vanke Co. Ltd the two are $0.2030 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Vanke Co. Ltd worth?
The market values China Vanke Co. Ltd at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.3476; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5506 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHVKF?
Our models span a range for China Vanke Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $0.2641, base $0.5506, optimistic $0.8762 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.3476). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CHVKF?
The PEG ratio of China Vanke Co. Ltd is 0.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Vanke Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −32.8%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHVKF from its 52-week high?
China Vanke Co. Ltd trades at $0.3476, about 48% below its 52-week high of $0.6749 and 18% above the low of $0.2951 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5506 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Vanke Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Vanke Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.3476, calculated fair value $0.5506 (+58%), Quality Score 29/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHVKF calculated?
We run China Vanke Co. Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5506, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Vanke Co. Ltd currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.3476. Our model-based fair value is $0.5506, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Vanke Co. Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($0.2641 to $0.8762). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of China Vanke Co. Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
The market capitalisation of China Vanke Co. Ltd is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Vanke Co. Ltd is 0.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co. Ltd are $−1.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
The net margin of China Vanke Co. Ltd is −37.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Vanke Co. Ltd is −32.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Vanke Co. Ltd is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
The operating margin of China Vanke Co. Ltd is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
Revenue at China Vanke Co. Ltd is growing −23.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF)?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co. Ltd are growing −23.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF) generate?
The free cash flow of China Vanke Co. Ltd is −4.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Vanke Co. Ltd (CHVKF) carry?
The net debt of China Vanke Co. Ltd is 142B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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