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Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Chilwa Minerals Ltd A$0.09, price A$0.86, upside -89.1%, quality 17 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000275752

CM Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Chilwa Minerals Ltd

CHW · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0935 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 17/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −37.9 %/yr)
!Trails peers (0/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$1.35 A$0.1500 Fair Value A$0.0935 Jul 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

39‑month range A$0.1500 – A$1.35 · fair‑value band A$0.0680 – A$0.1360 · the A$0.8600 price screens above the A$0.0935 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Chilwa Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of heavy mineral sands project in Africa. It explores for zircon, rutile, and ilmenite, as well as monazite rare earth elements deposits.

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Chilwa Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of heavy mineral sands project in Africa. It explores for zircon, rutile, and ilmenite, as well as monazite rare earth elements deposits. The company holds a 100% interest in the Chilwa Critical Minerals Project covering an area of approximately 878.7 square kilometers located around the northern, western, and southern shores of Lake Chilwa in southern Malawi, Africa. Chilwa Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2022 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) currently trades at A$0.8600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0935, implying the stock looks roughly 820.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0680 (bear) to A$0.1360 (bull), the price of A$0.8600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Chilwa Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$126K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$3.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$65.2M (≈ $45.7M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0600 · Return on equity −22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.4% · Revenue (TTM) −A$1.5K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, CHW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0680 Fair Value A$0.0935 Bull A$0.1360
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1600 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0800 A$0.1100 A$0.1600 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 17/100

Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 20
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CHW screens 820% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −10% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.84× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Chilwa Minerals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0935 −820%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chilwa Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHW

Frequently asked questions

Is Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0935 versus a price of A$0.8600, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHW?
Our model-based fair value for Chilwa Minerals Ltd is A$0.0935 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.8600.
What is the quality score of CHW?
Chilwa Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0935 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0680, optimistic scenario A$0.1360. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0935, about −89% upside versus a price of A$0.8600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0680, optimistic scenario A$0.1360. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chilwa Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0935 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.8600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CHW trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.8600, fair value A$0.0935, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.8600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0935). For Chilwa Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.7665 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chilwa Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Chilwa Minerals Ltd at about A$65.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.8600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0935 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHW?
Our models span a range for Chilwa Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0680, base A$0.0935, optimistic A$0.1360 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.8600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chilwa Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −22.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHW from its 52-week high?
Chilwa Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.8600, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$1.35 and 25% above the low of A$0.6900 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0935 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chilwa Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.8600, calculated fair value A$0.0935 (−89%), Quality Score 17/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHW calculated?
We run Chilwa Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0935, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Chilwa Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.8600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0935, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chilwa Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1360). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (17/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0680 to A$0.1360) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Chilwa Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The market capitalisation of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is A$65.2M (≈ $45.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Earnings per share at Chilwa Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is −21.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much revenue does Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) generate?
Chilwa Minerals Ltd generates revenue of −A$1.5K (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
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