EN DE
Watch Chilwa Minerals Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
Data-driven stock valuation

Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock A$0.14, price A$0.59, that is 75.5% below the price, quality 18 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000275752

CM Chilwa Minerals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Chilwa Minerals Ltd

CHW · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 76% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter 32% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.1445 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 18/100
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −37.9 %/yr in AUD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/6)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
Watch Chilwa Minerals Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.35 A$0.1500 Fair Value A$0.1445 Jul 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range A$0.1500 – A$1.35 · fair‑value band A$0.1020 – A$0.2125 · the A$0.5900 price screens above the A$0.1445 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

Follow Chilwa Minerals in your weekly email

Every Wednesday you see whether Chilwa Minerals is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.

We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Chilwa Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of heavy mineral sands project in Africa. It explores for zircon, rutile, and ilmenite, as well as monazite rare earth elements deposits.

Show moreShow less

The company holds a 100% interest in the Chilwa Critical Minerals Project covering an area of approximately 878.7 square kilometers located around the northern, western, and southern shores of Lake Chilwa in southern Malawi, Africa.

Chilwa Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2022 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) currently trades at A$0.5900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1445, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1020 (bear) to A$0.2125 (bull), the price of A$0.5900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Chilwa Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$126K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$6.9M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$61.9M (≈ $42.7M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0800 · Return on equity −31.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −30,063% · Revenue growth (YoY) −32.2% · Free cash flow −A$11.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −76%, CHW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1020 Fair Value A$0.1445 Bull A$0.2125
Price A$0.5900 · Downside -75.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1200 A$0.1700 A$0.2500 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1200 A$0.1700 A$0.2500 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 78
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 11
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CHW screens overvalued: fair value 76% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

Compare Chilwa Minerals Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −75.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −24.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −32.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.38× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹261.75 ₹334.17 +28% vs CHW
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.25 SAR 64.96 SAR +12% vs CHW
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹568.10 ₹624.91 +10% vs CHW
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥27.56 ¥30.32 +10% vs CHW
Boliden AB BOL kr 503.40 kr 464.45 −8% vs CHW
BHP Group BHP A$59.20 A$47.85 −19% vs CHW
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥33.04 ¥25.57 −23% vs CHW
Korea Zinc Company 010130 960,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −32% vs CHW
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.29 ¥6.82 −49% vs CHW
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.65 ¥4.44 −89% vs CHW

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend StocksUndervalued 52-Week Low Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Free calculator Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Free calculator
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorP/E Ratio CalculatorPEG Ratio CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorIntrinsic ValueIntrinsic vs Extrinsic ValueP/E Ratio by Sector
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Chilwa Minerals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chilwa Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHW

Frequently asked questions

Is Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1445 versus a price of A$0.5900, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHW?
Our model-based fair value for Chilwa Minerals Ltd is A$0.1445 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5900.
What is the quality score of CHW?
Chilwa Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1445 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1020, optimistic scenario A$0.2125. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1445, about 76% lower versus a price of A$0.5900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1020, optimistic scenario A$0.2125. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chilwa Minerals Ltd it is A$0.1445 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$0.5900. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, CHW trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.5900, fair value A$0.1445, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1445). For Chilwa Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.4455 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chilwa Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Chilwa Minerals Ltd at about A$61.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5900; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1445 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHW?
Our models span a range for Chilwa Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1020, base A$0.1445, optimistic A$0.2125 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$0.5900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chilwa Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −31.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHW from its 52-week high?
Chilwa Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.5900, about 46% below its 52-week high of A$1.09 and 2% above the low of A$0.5800 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1445 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chilwa Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chilwa Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$0.5900, calculated fair value A$0.1445 (−76%), Quality Score 18/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHW calculated?
We run Chilwa Minerals Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.1445 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Chilwa Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.5900. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1445, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chilwa Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2125). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1020 to A$0.2125) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Chilwa Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The market capitalisation of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is A$61.9M (≈ $42.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Earnings per share at Chilwa Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is −31.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is −21.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
The operating margin of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is −30,063% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW)?
Revenue at Chilwa Minerals Ltd is growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Chilwa Minerals Ltd (CHW) generate?
The free cash flow of Chilwa Minerals Ltd is −A$11.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
Free · no account needed

Watch Chilwa Minerals Ltd in the live analysis

One click puts Chilwa Minerals Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.