CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of CIL SECURITIES LTD. ₹48.41, price ₹36.14, upside +34.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹11.57 – ₹67.24 · fair‑value band ₹46.87 – ₹56.31 · the ₹36.14 price screens below the ₹48.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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CIL Securities Limited provides diversified financial services in India. The company offers online and offline securities trading services; equity research cell; merchant banking services; registrar and share transfer agents services; and depository participant services. It also provides broking services to retail, high net worth, and institutional clients.
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CIL Securities Limited provides diversified financial services in India. The company offers online and offline securities trading services; equity research cell; merchant banking services; registrar and share transfer agents services; and depository participant services. It also provides broking services to retail, high net worth, and institutional clients. CIL Securities Limited was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Hyderabad, India.
Stock analysis
CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC) currently trades at ₹36.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹48.41, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹61.87 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the ₹36.14 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ₹43.39, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹46.87 (bear) to ₹56.31 (bull), the price of ₹36.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CIL SECURITIES LTD. reported revenue of ₹83.6M in FY2026 versus ₹82.8M in FY2022, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹16.7M in FY2026, compounding −7.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹181M (≈ $1.9M) · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) ₹6.85 · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% · Operating margin 22.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 34%, CILSEC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹46.87Fair Value ₹48.41Bull ₹56.31
Price ₹36.14 · Upside +34.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹3.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 448 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+34.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.2% · Below median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)40.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.9% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹48.41 versus a price of ₹36.14, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CILSEC?
Our model-based fair value for CIL SECURITIES LTD. is ₹48.41 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹36.14.
What is the quality score of CILSEC?
CIL SECURITIES LTD. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹48.41 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹46.87, optimistic scenario ₹56.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CIL SECURITIES LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹48.41, about +34% upside versus a price of ₹36.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹46.87, optimistic scenario ₹56.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
CIL SECURITIES LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹83.7M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CIL SECURITIES LTD. would have to grow free cash flow by -12.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CILSEC use?
Our models discount CIL SECURITIES LTD. at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CIL SECURITIES LTD. that is -12.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CIL SECURITIES LTD. grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -12.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CIL SECURITIES LTD. (-12.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.33 %: that much free cash flow CIL SECURITIES LTD. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CIL SECURITIES LTD. it is ₹48.41 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹36.14. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CIL SECURITIES LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CILSEC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹36.14, fair value ₹48.41, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CILSEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹36.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹48.41). For CIL SECURITIES LTD. the two are ₹12.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CIL SECURITIES LTD. worth?
The market values CIL SECURITIES LTD. at about ₹181M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹36.14; our models calculate a fair value of ₹48.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CILSEC?
Our models span a range for CIL SECURITIES LTD.: cautious scenario ₹46.87, base ₹48.41, optimistic ₹56.31 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹36.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CILSEC?
CIL SECURITIES LTD. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹48.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for CIL SECURITIES LTD. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 5.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CILSEC from its 52-week high?
CIL SECURITIES LTD. trades at ₹36.14, about 31% below its 52-week high of ₹52.52 and 6% above the low of ₹33.98 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹48.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CIL SECURITIES LTD.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CIL SECURITIES LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹36.14, calculated fair value ₹48.41 (+34%), Quality Score 65/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CILSEC calculated?
We run CIL SECURITIES LTD. through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹48.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. CIL SECURITIES LTD. currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹36.14. Our model-based fair value is ₹48.41, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CIL SECURITIES LTD. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹46.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of CIL SECURITIES LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The market capitalisation of CIL SECURITIES LTD. is ₹181M (≈ $1.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CIL SECURITIES LTD. is 1.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
Earnings per share at CIL SECURITIES LTD. are ₹6.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The net margin of CIL SECURITIES LTD. is 20.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CIL SECURITIES LTD. is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CIL SECURITIES LTD. is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
The operating margin of CIL SECURITIES LTD. is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
Revenue at CIL SECURITIES LTD. is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CIL SECURITIES LTD. (CILSEC)?
Earnings per share at CIL SECURITIES LTD. are growing +428% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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