Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG BRL 22.95, price BRL 17.18, upside +33.6%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$5.75 – R$183,580 · fair‑value band R$11.98 – R$32.58 · the R$17.18 price screens below the R$22.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of energy in Brazil.
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Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of energy in Brazil. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated 32 hydro plants with a total capacity of 4,434 M, 2 wind farms with a total capacity of 71 MW, and 12 photovoltaic power stations with a total capacity of 169 MW; 365,577 miles of distribution lines; and 4,865 miles of transmission lines. It is also involved in the acquisition, transportation, and distribution of gas and its sub products and derivatives; sale and trading of energy; construction, implementation, operation and maintenance of electricity transmission; marketing and intermediation of energy-related business; installation, operation, maintenance and rental of solar plants; and distributed generation, account services, cogeneration, energy efficiency, and supply and storage management activities. The company was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) currently trades at R$17.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$22.95, implying the stock looks roughly 25.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$25.43 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$17.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$6.69, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$11.98 (bear) to R$32.58 (bull), the price of R$17.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG reported revenue of R$42.8B in FY2025 versus R$33.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was R$4.9B in FY2025, compounding +6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$49.1B (≈ $9.4B) · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) R$1.71 · Dividend yield 7.1% · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 34%, CMIG3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$11.98Fair Value R$22.95Bull R$32.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.3645 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs 3.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.2% a year for the price and −2.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+147.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)12.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMIG3
Frequently asked questions
Is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$22.95 versus a price of R$17.18, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMIG3?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is R$22.95 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$17.18.
What is the quality score of CMIG3?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$22.95 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$11.98, optimistic scenario R$32.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$22.95, about +34% upside versus a price of R$17.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$11.98, optimistic scenario R$32.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$43.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG pay a dividend?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.15% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMIG3 use?
Our models discount Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.87 %: that much free cash flow Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG it is R$22.95 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$17.18. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CMIG3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$17.18, fair value R$22.95, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMIG3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$17.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$22.95). For Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG the two are R$5.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG worth?
The market values Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG at about R$49.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$17.18; our models calculate a fair value of R$22.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMIG3?
Our models span a range for Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG: cautious scenario R$11.98, base R$22.95, optimistic R$32.58 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$17.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMIG3?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$22.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CMIG3?
The PEG ratio of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMIG3 from its 52-week high?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG trades at R$17.18, about 11% below its 52-week high of R$19.26 and 31% above the low of R$13.12 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$22.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$17.18, calculated fair value R$22.95 (+34%), Quality Score 42/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMIG3 calculated?
We run Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$22.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$17.18. Our model-based fair value is R$22.95, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (R$11.98 to R$32.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) come from?
Earnings per share at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG grew +9.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG
How large is the market capitalisation of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The market capitalisation of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is R$49.1B (≈ $9.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG are R$1.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The dividend yield of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 7.1% (payout 71.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The net margin of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 11.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
The operating margin of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Revenue at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG are growing −5.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG (CMIG3) carry?
The net debt of Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG is R$18.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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